Senate Passes $3.5 Trillion Budget Plan, Advancing Sweeping Safety Net Expansion

[pnwmom]

Source: NYT

WASHINGTON — The Senate took a major step early on Wednesday toward enacting a sweeping expansion of the nation’s social safety net, approving a $3.5 trillion budget blueprint along party lines that would allow Democrats to fund climate change, health care and education measures while increasing taxes on wealthy people and corporations.

After an unusual bipartisan approval of a $1 trillion infrastructure package a day earlier, the vote over unanimous Republican opposition allows Senate Democrats to create an expansive package that will carry the remainder of President Biden’s $4 trillion economic agenda. The Senate adopted the measure 50 to 49, with one lawmaker, Senator Mike Rounds, Republican of South Dakota, absent.

The blueprint, which could set in motion the largest expansion of the federal safety net in nearly six decades, faces a difficult road ahead as Democrats seek to flesh it out and turn it into law, one that will require their progressive and moderate wings to hold together with virtually no votes to spare.

Its passage came after a marathon session of rapid-fire votes in which Republicans, powerless to stop the measure in a Senate that Democrats control by Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote, instead pelted Democrats with politically freighted amendments. The votes dragged deep into the night for more than 14 hours before Democrats muscled through the measure minutes before 4 a.m. Wednesday, breaking into scattered applause.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/11/us/politics/senate-budget-plan.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20210811&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta&regi_id=143355918&segment_id=65907&user_id=9394c14500233220daf04a352739c03f

[padah513]

1. Great news.

Pelosi should call the House back in session. Get this out the way then focus on voting rights

[Hugh_Lebowski]

3. She can't, didn't you hear all the House Dems are in Gitmo, facing military tribunals right now?

You know, for stealing the election and stuff?

Just ask your local wingnut, they'll tell you about it!

[MLAA]

7. Good thing they defunded the police before flying to Gitmo

[BumRushDaShow]

4. Congress CANNOT use the spending reconciliation option the rest of this fiscal year

They have to wait until after September 30 to actually do any passage of it, either in the Senate or the House. And at this point, they now have to get all of the relevant committees back up and running to hash out all the final pieces of it and then compile it into one bill, and then get through the amendment process (or as they dub it - the "vote-a-thon" ). What reconciliation does do is limit the hours for debate in the Senate (20 hours, equally divided) once they are ready to go.

It's possible that they might consider having a joint House/Senate conference committee waiting in the wings so that they are coordinating each chamber's Committee markups in order to get to a single "version" faster for both chambers to vote on.

In any case, that is going to take a couple months. I am guessing they may be aiming to get it done by the end of the calendar year (probably aiming for doing it by Christmas Eve or something).

[ColinC]

5. I think the parliamentarian said they could do it twice in a fiscal year

[BumRushDaShow]

6. No

It would be 2 in a "calendar year". Meaning you could have this plus the "American Rescue Plan" (signed at the end of this past April) be the "2".

There are 3 different types of reconciliation and each can only be done ONCE during a fiscal year (or they can be combined into 1 or 2 combo bills during a fiscal year). But they can only be done between an October 1st - September 30 timeframe.

[MsUnderstood]

31. I remember reading some hiccup

that allows them to use the budget reconciliation 2 times this year (instead of one).

Its an anomaly. I found this on wikipedia to help:

In April 2021, the Senate Parliamentarian — an in-house rules expert — determined that the Senate can pass two budget reconciliation bills in 2021: one focused on fiscal year 2021 and one focused on fiscal year 2022.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reconciliation_(United_States_Congress)#:~:text=In%20April%202021%2C%20the%20Senate,focused%20on%20fiscal%20year%202022.

[BumRushDaShow]

32. "Two times in a year" means "two times in a CALENDAR year"

The federal fiscal year goes from October 1st - September 30. A regular calendar year goes from January 1st - December 31st.

So when Biden signed the last stimulus bill done by a spending reconciliation this past spring, that counted against the FY2021 budget because there had been no budget bill passed for FY21 at the time, so that also became the federal government's FY2021 budget. That then used up a spending reconciliation option for the rest of this fiscal year.

However the fiscal year ends September 30, 2021 and October 1st begins fiscal year 2022, where October, November, and December would be part of FY2022, but still in the same calendar year as when that stimulus reconciliation passed this past spring.

So you have an "overlap" period that represents the 1st quarter of a new federal fiscal year that is also considered the last quarter of a calendar year, and that is where the "two in the same year" thing comes from.

As sortof an analogous situation, here in PA (and other states), the state's "fiscal year" for budget purposes begins July 1st and ends June 30th, so it is not matched up with a "calendar year", although the fiscal year and calendar year obviously overlap (in that case, by 6 months).

[Deminpenn]

28. Pelosi via Hoyer just sent a letter out to all Dems

telling them to return to DC on 8/23, cutting their recess a few weeks short. Presumably this is so they can begin work on the Senate's budget blue print.

[BumRushDaShow]

30. I posted what was done here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2783387

House expected to cut recess short, return Aug. 23 to take up infrastructure package

Aug. 10, 2021, 7:29 PM EDT
By Dartunorro Clark

House Democratic leader Steny Hoyer said Tuesday that the House could cut its recess short and return in about two weeks to take up the sweeping $550 billion infrastructure bill that passed the Senate.

"For your scheduling purposes, assuming that the Senate does, in fact, complete work on a budget resolution, the House will return to session on the evening of August 23 to consider that budget resolution and will remain in session until our business for the week is concluded," Hoyer, of Maryland, the House majority leader, said in a statement to colleagues. House members had been scheduled to return Sept. 20.

After clearing several procedural hurdles, the Senate infrastructure package passed 69-30 on Tuesday, with 19 Republicans joining all Democratic-voting senators. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has signaled that the bill will not get a House vote until the Senate passes a separate multitrillion-dollar package of safety net measures.

"The House will continue to work with the Senate to ensure that our priorities For The People are included in the final infrastructure and reconciliation packages, in a way that is resilient and will Build Back Better," she said in a statement.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-expected-cut-recess-short-return-august-23-take-infrastructure-n1276517

[BumRushDaShow]

2. Was just about to post

They won't be able to actually vote on the final package until October 1s tor later.

(ETA - you stayed up late late!! )

[Celerity]

9. Yes, the goal is for committees to write legislation to fulfil the spending targets by Sept. 15

https://www.npr.org/2021/08/09/1026055615/senate-democrats-release-3-5t-budget-framework

[BumRushDaShow]

11. This is really going to be the hard part

just to get 50 + Harris.

They will have an option to combine any of the 3 reconciliation tools into a single piece of legislation come October 1st, where in a gigantic bill, they could raise the debt ceiling, which is one of the types (and that needs to be done with some legislation - even if it gets tacked onto the FY2022 appropriations bills or the media outrage will prompt the markets to tank), and possibly repeal the tax cuts for the rich as a revenue reconciliation one, in order to "pay for" the "Human Infrastructure" spending reconciliation (and I expect all in Congress on the left want that 2017 tax cuts atrocity killed).

[Celerity]

12. Thank fuck we have two veterans (Schumer and Pelosi) to run this 'balancing 1000 angels on the head

of a pin' operation. They have both been through the legislative wars for decades, and if anyone can pull it all off, it is them.

[BumRushDaShow]

14. But even better

Guess who is an even more experienced "veteran of the legislative process" who had been at it way longer than either of them?

[Celerity]

16. I was going to add Biden and his top aides too, but got lazy, lolol

[BumRushDaShow]

19. As a note

Biden first elected to the Senate = 1972 (36 years + 8 years VP = 44 years)
Pelosi first elected to the House = 1987 (34 years)
Schumer first elected to the House = 1981 / first elected to the Senate = 1999 (40 years combined)

[Celerity]

20. +10000000000000000

[BumRushDaShow]

22. ...

[Johnny2X2X]

13. I don't think this is as hard as the media is portraying

Manchin and Sinema both offered amendments to this Bill before they both voted for it to pass. Nancy is convening the House August 23rd to vote on this Bill, then they will spend time writing the Final Bill to pass both chambers via reconciliation. If the House agrees with this Bill's framework later this month it's as good as law.

It does sound like it won't get to Biden's desk until October 1st though. I don't think it's a legislative problem to pass it right now at all, now what the media says about it over the next 50 days could change that, but as of now it's a go.

As far as Manchin and Sinema, they will surely cause some more stink, but they also just voted yes, the big problem would have been if they were a no overnight.

Now the media loves themselves a barn burner, so they're going to hype up that this "hangs in the balance" until it's signed, but I think the vote overnight was about 90% of the obstacle to this passing into law.

[BumRushDaShow]

17. This time, it's not going to necessarily be Manchin/Sinema

It's going to be a battle "for the heart and soul of the party", with a struggle between the "centrists" and the "left/progressives" and it will most likely revolve around pay-fors and the debt and not just in the Senate.

I.e., Democrats only have 220 votes to the 212 (R)s in the House, with 3 vacancies - (2 (D)s and 1 (R), where 1 (D) for OH-11 will be elected Nov. 2 and the other (D) for FL-20 will not have have a special election until a couple months after November due to DeathSantis pushing the Hastings special election until January 11, 2022).

So they can't lose more than a handful in the House too.

The same thing happened with the reconciliation bill for the ACA, where Bart Stupak lead a renegade group of 17 (D)s to oppose it unless something was done in addition to the Hyde Amendment with respect to public funding of abortions.

And as a note, they CANNOT do another "spending" reconciliation this fiscal year because those tools can only be used ONCE each fiscal year and they already used it for the "American Rescue Plan" that was signed into law back April 28, 2021 during the current FY2021. So whatever they are working on now will have to wait until after October 1st, which wil be the start of FY2022, in order to actually be able to "pass" it.

[Johnny2X2X]

21. Nancy has her House in order

I am not worried about the House one bit. Nancy will not let this fail there and the big difference on this is that this bill is the most progressive bill to come through Congress since the great Depression, the moderates in the House would be more of a concern than the liberals. But Nancy has it either way.

Nancy is calling the House back on August 23rd to take this up, it will pass easily and with no drama.

Then a final bill will be written and that's where the Senate will create a little drama with Conservative Dems in the Senate, but the key points of this bill aren't really items of contention. Manchin is going to protect WV's fossil fuel industry, Sinema might whine about overall size.

Bottom line, this bill is going to pass 95% intact or more. And of course the media wants drama to drive ratings, but I don't think the drama will be really that intense, they tend to make drama out of normal negotiations.

I think the chances of this passing went from 80% before this vote to 95%+ after this vote.

[BumRushDaShow]

23. The Senate's Infrastructure bill passing in the House is not the problem

that is a done deal and may even be signed by or on Labor Day as a nice touch.

It's the reconciliation bill that will be a problem in the House due to the Problem-Solvers Caucus vs the Congressional Progressive Caucus.

The Manchin/Sinema thing in the Senate is going to be its own side-show, and really, it won't just be them. There are a number of (D) "moderates" in the Senate who will probably start balking, like Chris Coons & compatriot Tom Carper, or Jean Shaheen & compatriot Maggie Hassan.

It will be a slog and we will hear endless nonsense from the media about "the bill", "the bill", "the bill" as if each iteration were the "final one", just lie they did with the ACA.

And don't forget, because the fiscal year DOES end September 30, and although the House sent over a big pile of appropriations bills to fund the government for FY2022 right before they went on break, the Senate has done nothing with those yet.

So someone needs to pass a C.R. to get through some portion of the new FY or there will be a government shutdown come September 30.

[Johnny2X2X]

24. She's calling them back for the Spending bill

The infrastructure deal is a done deal, but the Dems coupled the $3.5 Trillion spending bill with it as a condition for the infrastructure deal to be passed in the House no questions asked basically.

Bottom line is that the Dems in the Senate agreed to a frame work, now they negotiate, those negotiations will be like any other ones, fraught with posturing, but in the end a robust bill gets passed, failure is not an option for any of these Dem Senators.

As far as a CR, totally separate issue, but Reps will probably try to use it to affect the Budget Deal.

[BumRushDaShow]

26. They CANNOT pass any spending reconciliation now

And no, she is NOT calling them back solely for the reconciliation bill. It is initially to take up the Infrastructure bill that just passed the Senate -

House expected to cut recess short, return Aug. 23 to take up infrastructure package

Aug. 10, 2021, 7:29 PM EDT
By Dartunorro Clark

House Democratic leader Steny Hoyer said Tuesday that the House could cut its recess short and return in about two weeks to take up the sweeping $550 billion infrastructure bill that passed the Senate.

"For your scheduling purposes, assuming that the Senate does, in fact, complete work on a budget resolution, the House will return to session on the evening of August 23 to consider that budget resolution and will remain in session until our business for the week is concluded," Hoyer, of Maryland, the House majority leader, said in a statement to colleagues. House members had been scheduled to return Sept. 20.

After clearing several procedural hurdles, the Senate infrastructure package passed 69-30 on Tuesday, with 19 Republicans joining all Democratic-voting senators. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has signaled that the bill will not get a House vote until the Senate passes a separate multitrillion-dollar package of safety net measures.

"The House will continue to work with the Senate to ensure that our priorities For The People are included in the final infrastructure and reconciliation packages, in a way that is resilient and will Build Back Better," she said in a statement.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-expected-cut-recess-short-return-august-23-take-infrastructure-n1276517

What they CAN do if they come back at that time, is to review whatever the Senate might hand them regarding reconciliation, IF that even happens that soon, and then pass the Infrastructure one before the end of the FY and do the reconciliation some time AFTER the new fiscal year begins.

And regardless of the C.R. being a "separate issue", the government shuts down at midnight September 30, 2021 unless either the government is funded through the 12 appropriations bills (whether individually or as a group of Minibus bills or an Omnibus) OR a Continuing Resolution is passed. Trust me, I have been through enough damn furloughs over 30+ years in the federal government (before retiring) to know that they have to stop and take care of that problem FIRST because the media will then pull out their tired shots of National Parks being "closed" and other nonsense that is way down at the bottom of the list of a furlough impact on millions of federal employees who will not be paid.

[cstanleytech]

8. I bet the Republicans wanted it to pass so they had Rounds not show up and then they intend to use

the passage of it against our people by lying through their teeth like usual in the next few elections.

[Celerity]

10. even if Rounds had been there, Harris would have broken the 50-50 ties nt

[cstanleytech]

33. Ya but this way even if one of the Democrats broke rank and voted no it was sure to pass which

means millions will be spent in Republican controlled states as well which you can bank that the Republicans will be two faced on and claim credit for even while attacking the Democrats about passing the spending legislation.

[Celerity]

34. Occam's razor for me

He wasn't there because of his wife's chemo, not some 4 or 5 dimensional chess play. Manchin and Sinema both had said for a while in advance they would vote yes on the non-binding $3.5 trillion Budget Resolution.

[gab13by13]

15. Democrats are not going to waste

a reconciliation bill on raising the debt ceiling. They are calling the GQP's bluff. If the GQP wants to shut down the government, have at it. The days of negotiating over the debt ceiling are over.

[FBaggins]

18. Debt ceiling votes are a separate reconciliation category

They wouldn't be "wasting" anything.

[BlueWavePsych]

25. K&R

[live love laugh]

27. MAJORITY DEMOCRATIC SENATE passed the bill!

[Deminpenn]

29. Schumer delivered and the Senate

only had to eat into 2 days of August recess time.

This budget plan/bill will get a lot of support from moderates/centrists. For ex, my county part Conor Lamb's district has one of the oldest average age populations in the state. The social safety net provisions will be a big winner here.

[mountain grammy]

35. Bravo!!!!

Take a bow Democrats!

The House? I’m not worried.