The winter Omicron wave is coming -- quickly

[brooklynite]

Source: Axios

Data flooding in from South Africa and Europe is clear: The Omicron variant is spreading extremely quickly, including among vaccinated people.

Why it matters: If this trend holds up, that means a lot of people — around the world and in the U.S. — are about to get sick, even if only mildly so.

Driving the news: An early estimate published yesterday by the UK found that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine are only about 30% effective against symptomatic infection with Omicron, and the AstraZeneca vaccine isn't effective at all.

A booster shot of the Pfizer vaccine, however, increases effectiveness to 70-75%.

Read more: https://www.axios.com/winter-omicron-wave-covid-fa4211e2-868a-4402-af40-91ee8714c52c.html

[multigraincracker]

1. Shelter in place.

For the last 2 years, I haven't had a cold or even the sniffles. But, I don't have kids or grand kids.

[Jon King]

2. Life is too short to worry about this.

Seriously, enough is enough. Get booster, mask when in a crowd, enjoy life.

[cadoman]

4. I'll continue to mask and maintain my schedule of vaccines -- but no broader socialization

Experts still haven't given the go ahead for larger gatherings and it's irresponsible to be promoting that or to assume we can act normal. We've seen how that creates outbreaks in states like Florida and Texas. As soon as we give this virus an inch it pounces on the opportunity and starts up a new wave.

Don't fall for the siren call of freedumb being sung by the selfish unvaxxed.

[llashram]

11. ++

this latest variant is serious. And I agree with you completely. There are way too many still not believing the science. I see them every time I go out. Especially in stores. Disgusting arrogant, ignorant people. When intubated most end up wishing they hadn't listened to the RW fools running(ruining) their lives. I have no pity for them. They are spreading this virus. Not caring about the rest of us.

[appalachiablue]

13. Word ++

[oldsoftie]

5. I agree. Went to a concert with 8,000 people 2 weeks ago.

Venue required proof of vaccination or negative tests. And this is in GA too. I've had my shots & will get the booster. Still washing hands many times daily. Hopefully the current vaccines can be upgraded to be more effective against variants
People are simply not shutting down again. The mental health issues are hitting almost as many as the damn Covid.

[progree]

8. So long as people are cognizant of the overloaded hospital beds and ICUs, the very stressed staff,

people who have needed surgeries being postponed or non-covid needing care and having to wait days for a bed, that some fun activities could spread covid around further, etc. with a certain percent of those being hospitalized, and a certain percent of those dying horrible deaths.

Myself, I will restrain until the situation in the hospitals improves.

[uppityperson]

15. Exactly, thank you

[paleotn]

3. Expected, even with ancestral strains. It's one of many respiratory viruses...

and this is their time to shine, in the northern hemisphere anyways.

[YoshidaYui]

6. We will be wearing

Masks for a long, long time.

[IronLionZion]

7. Antivaxxers will think they're getting natural immunity from mild Omicron

but might actually end up with Delta and be hospitalized. A lot of unvaccinated Americans might be in for a holiday surprise. Either way, it looks like things are moving towards the endemic status of COVID becoming just another seasonal mild virus that doesn't kill too many people.

[Initech]

10. Yeah it's going to be with us forever. We're all going to get it.

The question is do you want a mild cough or do you want to end up in the hospital and die? I personally know which one I'd rather choose - and I will keep taking the necessary precautions until that happens.

[jeffreyi]

12. Agree.

Sometime in the near or distant future, the mutations will maybe make less lethal. Who knows. In the meantime, I will continue to try and avoid it.

[Bayard]

9. January should be a blast!

I really want to see my brother and his family. Missed last xmas because of Covid, so haven't seen them since xmas before. He and I are the last of the immediate family.

[Nay]

29. Yeah, my yearly trip to FL is again postponed. My best friend and I (she's 81)

may never see each other again, frankly. It's awful.

[roamer65]

14. Moderna BOOST!

Had the booster in late October.

I would think a boosted Moderna scenario should be a bit higher than 70-75 pct. Moderna is a full dose booster.

[ProfessorGAC]

23. It's The Opposite

From AARP website with links to the CDC:

Is the COVID-19 booster shot dosage the same as first two?

The boosters from Pfizer and J&J are the same formulation and dosage as the initial vaccines, but Moderna's booster is half the dose — 50 micrograms — of the first two shots. Nov 19, 2021

[roamer65]

25. Pharmacist told me it was same as the first two.

Maybe he was wrong. Not too concerned.

[ProfessorGAC]

27. I'm Moderna, Too!

I'm not concerned either.
The data drove their decision to boost at 50 micrograms, so I trust their experts.

[littlemissmartypants]

26. The Moderna booster is a full dose for those with an autoimmune diagnosis.

I know that because I fit in that category, with an autoimmune diagnosis. That was explained to me by the nurse who gave me my booster. If you are not diagnosed with autoimmune disease you get the Moderna booster at the half dose ammount.

❤

[NickB79]

16. A small percentage of a huge number is still a huge number

Last edited Sun Dec 12, 2021, 05:42 PM - Edit history (1)

Just remember, even if Omicron is only half as lethal as Delta, but infects 3X as many people, it will kill 50% more people in sheer numbers. And with more hospitals overwhelmed, standards of care fall and people who may have otherwise lived, will die from lack of care and beds.

Stay safe, get boosters, and mask up.

[LisaL]

17. Yep.

While it might be less lethal than delta, if it is able to evade vaccines and natural immunity better than delta (and evidence indicates it does) then it could very well end up killing more people.

[NickB79]

18. Especially if it surges as rapidly as feared

A thunderstorm that dumps 5" of rain over a weekend is manageable.

A thunderstorm that dumps 5" of rain in an hour is devastating.

Our hospitals can't take a flood of patients like that. Triage would be activated, and patients left to die.

[LisaL]

19. Yep.

It clearly could be a huge problem even if less deadly than delta (which by the way hasn't even been shown yet). Hospitalizations and deaths lag infections, and omicron has only just been discovered.

[Delphinus]

20. Great

job explaining this in a way most will understand.

[Tomconroy]

21. Still too early to panic. I read the Twitter feeds of the real mavens. We may know what's happening

in South Africa by the end of the month The boosted should be good no matter what happens. When it's time to panic I will be the first to do so.
The hospitals in S. Africa are doing ok for the moment.
It may have some success avoiding antigens. T cells are something else.

Covid has become largely a disease of the unvaccinated. Their bodies. Their choice.

It's just possible good news may be coming out of SA soon.

[brooklynite]

22. My friend Laurie thinks it'll spike between Christmas and New Years.

[ProfessorGAC]

24. Makes Sense

That's what it did last year, plus/minus a week or so.
There were 2 peaks. One days before Christmas, one less than a week after new year's day.
But, the dip between the two peaks was insubstantial. It basically created a quite high plateau that lasted about 3.5 weeks.
Lots of gatherings, colder weather making some folks more susceptible, drier air changing mass transfer from air to tissue...
It was not a surprise last year, and shouldn't surprise us this year if it peaks there.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[bullwinkle428]

28. January 8, 2021, was the winter peak last year, which makes sense

given the incubation period.

Over 306,000 cases that day.