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BumRushDaShow

(129,662 posts)
Wed May 4, 2022, 02:05 PM May 2022

Fed hikes rates by half a percentage point in fight against inflation

Source: Washington Post

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday by half a percentage point, and scaled back other pandemic-era economic supports, strengthening its efforts to fight the highest inflation in 40 years. “The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship.

The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain,” according to a statement released at the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting. “The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions.”

The Fed also announced it will start scaling back its nearly $9 trillion balance sheet in June, moving at a quicker pace than the last time the Fed shrank its portfolio, several years following the Great Recession. At 2:30 p.m. Eastern time, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell will answer questions on the economic outlook, inflation, the job market, and whether the Fed can manage to slow the economy without causing a recession.

Global uncertainty also clouds the path ahead, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine drives energy prices up, and covid shutdowns in China trigger a new wave of supply chain snarls. The rate increase is the sharpest since 2000 and the second of seven hikes forecast for this year. Faced with soaring prices and a hot job market with record numbers of job openings, the Fed began raising rates in March, betting that a steady series of hikes will slash inflation, cool down the economy and get the coronavirus recovery on more sustainable footing.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/05/04/fed-rate-hike-inflation-may/



Expected.
21 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Fed hikes rates by half a percentage point in fight against inflation (Original Post) BumRushDaShow May 2022 OP
Shades of Greenspin? peppertree May 2022 #1
Recall in 1993, he told Clinton that if he and the Dems cut the deficit, he would keep rates low. Yavin4 May 2022 #19
It WAS expected, but this seems like they're trying to sabotage Biden. They kept Scrivener7 May 2022 #2
Inflation was low, why would they raise rates? mathematic May 2022 #5
Gosh, really? They don't just do it for fun? Scrivener7 May 2022 #8
You just quoted Tom Cotton to support your point. Fucking LOL. n/t mathematic May 2022 #11
Did you read it? Apparently not. I quoted Jonathan Chait. Or did you miss that? Scrivener7 May 2022 #14
Well I heard the "range" reported as being BumRushDaShow May 2022 #6
Credit card companies are loving this one AGAIN........ Bengus81 May 2022 #3
In many states, the credit companies are allowed to charge some max rate BumRushDaShow May 2022 #10
Won't hurt the rich at all, will devastate the rest of the economy which will help fascists gain yaesu May 2022 #4
Doing this and NOTHING about corporate profiteering and price gouging helps..How? Scalded Nun May 2022 #7
This. Scrivener7 May 2022 #9
It will be good to get edhopper May 2022 #12
Expect another .25 next month IronLionZion May 2022 #13
I remember when they had started doing that before the pandemic hit BumRushDaShow May 2022 #16
TFG pressured them to cut rates to prop up the stock market IronLionZion May 2022 #17
Yup BumRushDaShow May 2022 #18
ANNNNDDDDD the stock market soars BumRushDaShow May 2022 #15
So higher interest rates will lower food prices and gas prices?? BULL FUCKING SHIT Bengus81 May 2022 #20
I think the "technical" explanation is BumRushDaShow May 2022 #21

peppertree

(21,684 posts)
1. Shades of Greenspin?
Wed May 4, 2022, 02:14 PM
May 2022

Many will recall that in 1999 and 2000 - when inflation was quite tame - Greenspan began raising rates like there was no tomorrow.

Until finally, in March 2000, the gambit succeeded: the markets got cold feet, and lending dropped noticeably - a powerful one-two economic punch.

Predictably, the economy slowed just enough to deflate support for Democrats and - combined with a lackluster Gore candidacy - the rest, is history.

These days, Powell does have a justification of sorts: high inflation.

But the power the Fed has to cause political mischief - to Greenspin an election, if you will - can't be ignored.

Yavin4

(35,450 posts)
19. Recall in 1993, he told Clinton that if he and the Dems cut the deficit, he would keep rates low.
Wed May 4, 2022, 07:08 PM
May 2022

So, the Dems did just that by raising taxes mostly which cost Dems control of the Congress. By 1999-2000, we were running a budget surplus, but as you posted, Greenspan raised rates.

Scrivener7

(51,030 posts)
2. It WAS expected, but this seems like they're trying to sabotage Biden. They kept
Wed May 4, 2022, 02:14 PM
May 2022

rates low through thick and thin for tfg.

mathematic

(1,440 posts)
5. Inflation was low, why would they raise rates?
Wed May 4, 2022, 02:55 PM
May 2022

They don't raise rates for fun. They do it to keep inflation low and controlled and to keep employment high. Inflation was low and unemployment was high during the pre-pandemic trump years.

There's this strange (conservative) folk economics that wants to raise rates when times are good because, I don't know, times shouldn't be good or something. If inflation is low then there's no need to put the brakes on the economy.

Scrivener7

(51,030 posts)
8. Gosh, really? They don't just do it for fun?
Wed May 4, 2022, 03:18 PM
May 2022


And to answer your question, here's why:


https://nationalstew.com/this-is-trump-inflation-and-here-is-why/
This Is Trump Inflation, And Here Is Why
October 19, 2021 admin

The inflation we are experiencing is a result of failed Trump policies including, but not limited to:

1. Holding interest rates at near-zero for four years, which simultaneously and artificially held the bulging inflation dam from breaking and flooding during his administration, and broke the only lever that the new administration could use to end inflation!


And here's why:

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/12/jerome-powell-inflation-federal-reserve-tom-cotton-trump-biden.html
Powell was an inflation dove, leaving interest rates low in order to run the economy hot. Trump was constantly demanding Powell push interest rates even lower.

Cotton’s view implies that Powell was wrong, and Trump was even more wrong:

Mr. Powell also maintained the Fed’s radical emergency monetary policies a decade after the end of the 2007–08 financial crisis. The Fed had thereby already exhausted the normal tools of monetary policy when the pandemic hit and was forced to use unprecedented levels of government intervention to prop up the U.S. economy. As a result, the Fed’s balance sheet is nearly $9 trillion and continues to grow by more than $100 billion a month. For perspective, the Fed’s balance sheet barely surpassed $2 trillion after the financial crisis.


Scrivener7

(51,030 posts)
14. Did you read it? Apparently not. I quoted Jonathan Chait. Or did you miss that?
Wed May 4, 2022, 03:26 PM
May 2022

Or maybe you have a problem with him.

BumRushDaShow

(129,662 posts)
6. Well I heard the "range" reported as being
Wed May 4, 2022, 03:10 PM
May 2022

anywhere from +25 basis points up through as high as +75 basis points. So I "expected" the average would be "it".

Bengus81

(6,936 posts)
3. Credit card companies are loving this one AGAIN........
Wed May 4, 2022, 02:32 PM
May 2022

Free money by the billions for those huge Corporations out of thin air...........

BumRushDaShow

(129,662 posts)
10. In many states, the credit companies are allowed to charge some max rate
Wed May 4, 2022, 03:21 PM
May 2022

(like here in PA I think it is 25%) despite their sponsored banks paying little to "borrow" from the fed. So the change is going to mean the banks will have to "pay more" to borrow (and they already gouge the consumer to borrow from them so that will definitely go up).

Will see how long it takes them to reflect it in how much they pay savers with interest-bearing accounts.

yaesu

(8,020 posts)
4. Won't hurt the rich at all, will devastate the rest of the economy which will help fascists gain
Wed May 4, 2022, 02:50 PM
May 2022

more political control.

Scalded Nun

(1,242 posts)
7. Doing this and NOTHING about corporate profiteering and price gouging helps..How?
Wed May 4, 2022, 03:10 PM
May 2022

Fuck the people, torpedo Biden and the Dems...oh yeah, business as usual.

Sure can't wait to see those increased interest rates on individual savings accounts.

IronLionZion

(45,562 posts)
13. Expect another .25 next month
Wed May 4, 2022, 03:25 PM
May 2022

and then another one, and so on.

Powell has promised nothing higher than .5 and he's not going to stop raising rates until inflation is in their target range.

While they have long claimed their goal is to reduce inflation without triggering a recession, they have more control over inflation than stopping a recession. That's the limitations of monetary policy. I'm still hoping that any recession doesn't start until after the election this year. The timing could work out for us if it's short and we ride the recovery into 2024.

BumRushDaShow

(129,662 posts)
16. I remember when they had started doing that before the pandemic hit
Wed May 4, 2022, 04:53 PM
May 2022

and later completely reversed themselves.

Federal Reserve hikes rates for third time this year

by Donna Borak @donnaborak September 26, 2018: 5:48 PM ET

The decision, which was expected, is a sign of increased confidence in the US economy. Unemployment is low, economic growth is strong, and inflation is relatively stable. Policymakers under Chairman Jerome Powell unanimously agreed to raise the federal funds rate a quarter percentage point, to a range of 2% to 2.25%. The rate helps determine rates for mortgages, credit cards and other consumer borrowing.

"Our economy is strong," Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday. "These rates remain low, and my colleagues and I believe that this gradual returning to normal is helping to sustain this strong economy." Central bankers raised expectations for a fourth rate hike in December, with a majority now in favor of such a move. In June, policymakers were split on whether the Fed should raise rates four times this year or three.

Looking ahead to 2019, Fed officials expect at least three rate hikes will be necessary, and one more in 2020. "The Fed shows no signs of taking (a) breath in rate hikes," Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union, wrote in a research note. The central bank also stripped the word "accommodative" from its description of monetary policy. That may be a signal that the Fed believes interest rates are finally at a neutral level, meaning they neither stimulate nor hinder the economy.

The Fed kept rates near record lows for years to encourage growth after the financial crisis. But it has been gradually raising them over the past three years.

(snip)

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/26/news/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rates-hike/index.html


They kept it steady through the first half of 2019 and then started slowly lowering in the fall, after which the pandemic caused them to bail faster.

What is interesting is this that I just read (public service/government employment) -

May 3, 20221:17 PM EDT
Last Updated a day ago

As some states hit record low unemployment, Fed faces tough adjustment

By Howard Schneider

(snip)

The uncertainty runs deep through the U.S. economy, incorporating questions like why government employment, which dropped sharply at the start of the pandemic as in-person schooling and other services were suspended, remains about 3.5% short of where it was before the health crisis.

There was plenty of money between nearly a trillion dollars in federal pandemic payments to state and local governments and unexpectedly strong tax receipts, said Louise Sheiner, a former Fed economist who is now the policy director for the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. But governments may have been priced out by the wage increases offered by private-sector employers, reluctant to match those rates on the basis of one-time federal payments yet potentially leaving more jobs to eventually fill.

"It is the huge irony. After all this money ... if we say what sectors of the economy are still sort of holding back in terms of employment, state and local (government) is a big one," Sheiner said. To get those and other jobs all filled will take time. It was years after the end of the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession that U.S. labor force participation took what was an unexpected turn higher.

The changes that take place after recessions, from the personal choices individuals make about work to the skills and technologies needed in different occupations, means the process of matching jobs to workers can be slow at first. But the process can accelerate, and Fed officials are hoping that the labor market will catch up before the U.S. central bank's monetary tightening has to take too many jobs off the table.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-states-hit-record-low-unemployment-fed-faces-tough-adjustment-2022-05-03/


I think some of this is refusing to deal with something they predicted 20 years ago but then seeing little change, decided to factor in... until it is now happening. I.e., the "Baby boomer" and even "GenX" retirements. I.e., in some government jobs, someone can retire at 55 (usually with a reduction in monthly benefits, although this doesn't count the positions that have mandatory retirement at age 50 like many LEO positions).

Of course you also had almost 1 million people die from COVID along with who knows how many tens or hundreds of thousands debilitated enough after surviving it who are not able to work in their old positions.

IronLionZion

(45,562 posts)
17. TFG pressured them to cut rates to prop up the stock market
Wed May 4, 2022, 05:05 PM
May 2022

his policies weren't working out. His gigantic tax cut did nothing to help the economy. And America's recession started before COVID lockdowns hit.

There's a good graph at this link with rate history. Rates are nowhere near as high as they were in the 80s.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/04/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-hike/index.html

BumRushDaShow

(129,662 posts)
18. Yup
Wed May 4, 2022, 05:19 PM
May 2022

and the tariffs on the materials that were needed for manufacturing here (the little that we still do) killed it for the domestic companies.

U.S. manufacturing was in a mild recession during 2019, a sore spot for the economy

By Heather Long and Andrew Van Dam

January 17, 2020


U.S. manufacturing was in a mild recession for all of 2019, according to data released Friday by the Federal Reserve. The downturn is a sore spot in an otherwise healthy U.S. economy and a potential weakness for President Trump, who promised to bring back blue-collar jobs.

In contrast with steady growth in the larger economy, U.S. factory production shrank by 1.3 percent in the past year, the Federal Reserve reported. It marked the worst year for manufacturing since 2015, as the trade war, lackluster global growth and problems at airplane maker Boeing hurt America’s industrial economy.

A technical recession occurs when output falls for six months, as it did from January to June last year. There were signs of a rebound after manufacturing production rose from July to September, but the latest data show that output fell back into negative territory in the fourth quarter.



Large U.S. manufacturers like Caterpillar have blamed Trump’s trade war for their slumping sales. The tariffs have hit the hardest on parts used to make cars, washing machines and other products, raising costs for U.S. manufacturing companies. A widely watched gauge of the health of the manufacturing sector — a survey of purchasing managers from the Institute for Supply Management — fell in December to its lowest level since the Great Recession. Global trade “remains the most significant cross-industry issue,” the ISM report said.

(snip)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/17/us-manufacturing-was-mild-recession-during-2019-sore-spot-economy/


Of course the rest was history...

ETA to note that yeah, these "0%" (or close to that) for so long have seemingly addicted people to that being "the norm". It never was. I remember when one of my sisters bought a house back in 2003 and was able to "catch" a mortgage rate of 5.25% before it crept up again. With the "0%" era, the mortgages were running in the 3% - 4% range.

BumRushDaShow

(129,662 posts)
15. ANNNNDDDDD the stock market soars
Wed May 4, 2022, 04:16 PM
May 2022
Stocks jump after Jerome Powell says the Fed isn’t considering an even bigger rate increase.



Stocks on Wall Street had their best day since 2020 on Wednesday, after Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said that central bankers weren’t considering exceptionally large increases in interest rates, calming investors who had begun to worry that the fight against inflation might push the economy into a recession. The S&P 500 rose 3 percent, the biggest jump since May 2020, spiking after Mr. Powell’s comment.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Fed said it would lift interest rates by half a percentage point, an increase that was widely expected, and that it plans to shrink its bond holdings. Bond yields, a proxy for investor expectations about interest rates, ticked lower. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage points, to 2.92 percent. Inflation is at its highest in four decades, and the Fed is quickly withdrawing monetary support as it looks to cool the economy down.

It has created an uncertain outlook on Wall Street that has investors questioning whether this is the right moment to own risky assets like stocks, and whether the Fed could go too far as it tries to cool the economy down and might, in the worst case, cause a recession. The S&P 500 was down more than 12 percent for the year at the end of trading on Tuesday, including an 8.8 percent plunge in April that was triggered by a sudden shift in views on what the Fed will do next. Some Wall Street analysts and investors had begun to raise the prospect that the central bank might increase rates by as much as 0.75 percentage points at one of its upcoming meetings.

Speaking during a news conference on Wednesday, Mr. Powell signaled that the Fed could continue to approve increases of as large as half a percentage point, but he was clear that an even larger increase — of 0.75 percentage points — was “not something the committee is actively considering.” “Market observers over the last week were starting to think that a 75 basis point increase was a possibility, even though it was a remote,” said Emily Bowersock Hill, the chief executive of Bowersock Capital Partners, a financial management firm. The “euphoria” in the stock market on Wednesday, Ms. Bowersock Hill said, also reflected the fact that the Fed didn’t say anything that investors weren’t already expecting.

(snip)

— Coral Murphy Marcos

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/05/04/business/fed-meeting-rates-inflation/stocks-struggle-to-find-direction-ahead-of-the-feds-interest-rate-decision


Stock Market News for May 4, 2022

Zacks Equity Research
Wed, May 4, 2022, 9:35 AM

(snip)

According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 124.97 points, or 2.99%, to end at 4,300.45 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 398.73 points, or 3.17%, to 12,962.49. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 927.75 points, or 2.80%, to 34,056.54.

(snip)

https://news.yahoo.com/stock-market-news-may-4-133501853.html

Bengus81

(6,936 posts)
20. So higher interest rates will lower food prices and gas prices?? BULL FUCKING SHIT
Thu May 5, 2022, 09:34 AM
May 2022

No...it will just let their banker buddies rake in billions more per month off of the people who can least afford it and have credit cards maxed out.

BumRushDaShow

(129,662 posts)
21. I think the "technical" explanation is
Thu May 5, 2022, 09:51 AM
May 2022

that right now, there are "too many dollars circulating" (equivalent of "printing too much money" ), and that normally puts the dollar into a position of being "weak". So by pulling some of that out of circulation (and back into a bank through interest rates), the "value" of the dollar goes up and thus the "price" of goods would not be as much ( "on paper" ).

HOWEVER the exchange rates for the dollar sortof belie that whole thing (the dollar is about at parity with Euro)!

There seems to be one explanation for that here -

Why the U.S. dollar is strengthening

Apr. 22, 2022 by Joseph Brusuelas

Policy by the central bank, interest rate differentials and a risk haven move into U.S. dollar-denominated assets are driving up the dollar against major trading currencies.

This is a welcome development as the Federal Reserve continues to prepare investors for a significant increase in the federal funds rate that may move from its current range between zero and 25 basis points to above the Fed’s estimate of the neutral policy rate of 2.5% by the end of the year.



On the margin, a stronger dollar tends to decrease the price of imports, which would weigh on U.S. inflationary pressures through the consumption channel. At the same time, it would cause foreign purchasers to switch from more expensive dollar-based goods to cheaper alternatives produced elsewhere.

That would dampen the demand for U.S. exports while assisting the shift in policy toward bringing inflation back down around the central bank’s 2% target, even at the expense of slower growth and possibly higher unemployment next year.

(snip)

https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/why-the-u-s-dollar-is-strengthening/


Personally (and I think many have also posted similar), there's a lot of speculation going on instead of true fundamentals of "supply and demand" and instead, with little or no mechanism to keep shady folks from gouging, the incentive is there to charge whatever they think "the market will bear". Of course the claims are also that a component of this is "wage inflation" despite the fact that wages were stagnant for 40 years until the sudden pandemic and "the great resignation".
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