Democrats Massively Overperform In Special Election Triumph

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: NBC News

Published May 01, 2024 at 4:48 AM EDT | Updated May 01, 2024 at 6:45 AM EDT


Timothy Kennedy, a Democratic New York state senator, has won the special election for the Congressional seat vacated by the retired Democrat Brian Higgins.

Kennedy easily defeated his Republican opponent Gary Dickson for New York's 26th district seat, which includes Buffalo and Niagara Falls.

While Kennedy's victory was widely anticipated in the left-leaning district, the vote margin between both candidates was much larger than forecast.

Kennedy won by more than 36 percentage points—a massive performance by the Democratic Party. The Cook Political Report, an independent newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns, had expected Kennedy to win the seat by 9 percentage points.

Read more: https://www.newsweek.com/democrats-win-new-york-special-election-timothy-kennedy-gary-dickson-1895916

[durablend]

1. Katy Tur(d) will set us straight on this

Clearly this portends certain doom for Biden come November. She'll also say this vote isn't at all what Donald Trump needs right now in this trying time for him.

[Mr. Mustard 2023]

4. No doubt...

...I can't watch any corporate news anymore. They're horrible. The laziness and arrogance of the so called news teams are obvious.

[Prairie Gates]

20. Might Buffalo special election make jury feel sorry for Regular Guy Trump?

A Katy Tur Special Report.

[sop]

2. From an anticipated 9-point win to 36 is impressive.

Democrats are motivated, turn out will be key come November.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. duplicate thread of

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10143233730

[BumRushDaShow]

7. In this case it's pointing out the expected vs ACTUAL spread

[KS Toronado]

14. Just goes to prove.........

...

[BumRushDaShow]

15. Exactly!

[BoRaGard]

5. Maybe Republicans should try offering what the American people want?

I mean, not everyone wants a Krypto-Khristian Fascist Overlord government
lying and cheating the people all the time.

It's really not all that popular a concept.

But the G.O.P. marches ferociously on,
pissing all over the dignity and free will of the American people,
setting out hateful plans, LOSING, and relentlessly stomping toward history's dumpster.

[peppertree]

11. Absolutely - but they no longer care in the slightest about what most people want or don't want

Last edited Wed May 1, 2024, 11:12 AM - Edit history (1)

Their whole strategy has now degenerated into: "Let's just get close enough to steal the White House - and from that point on, impose electoral outcomes by decree."

And you might ask them: "Isn't that straight out of the third world?"

And they'll tell you: "Of course not - look at us! Do we look like third-world types?"

[gab13by13]

6. So, another poll off by 27 points

Imagine that.

[Joe Cool]

8. NY Times headline: How is this bad news for Biden?

Subtitle: Only winning by 36% in a Democratic district spells doom for Biden.

[peppertree]

12. Figures. They're beholden to vulture fundie Paul Singer.

He bailed them out around a decade ago (with the money he stole from Argentina) - and they've turned into the snob's edition of the New York Post ever since.

Money talks.

[Bev54]

9. And these continued over performance elections is why I don't believe the polls.

[Ligyron]

13. Me either nor few others really.

As we know, they make crap up to try and make it a horse race when it’s not. Thank to Dobs removing reproductive health care for half the country, it’s going to be a win for the Dems like few before it.

[et tu]

10. roe rage in

roevember- unite and vote~

[John Shaft]

16. Can't wait to hear from right wing dems on this site

how bad this is for Democrats.

[Prairie Gates]

18. Gonna be lectured to about campaign contributions ooooooof

[John Shaft]

19. The high and mighty Kingmakers in our midst

Whodathunkit?

[Prairie Gates]

17. Reminiscent of NY-3 (former George Santos district), which was supposed to be "close"

and ended in an absolute shellacking.

[BumRushDaShow]

21. It's done on purpose because it "worked" in 2022 to misdirect the DNC funding strategy

From what I posted here - https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=edit&forum=1014&thread=3230348&pid=3230491

The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative

By Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder
Dec. 31, 2022

Senator Patty Murray, a Democrat, had consistently won re-election by healthy margins in her three decades representing Washington State. This year seemed no different: By midsummer, polls showed her cruising to victory over a Republican newcomer, Tiffany Smiley, by as much as 20 percentage points.

So when a survey in late September by the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group showed Ms. Murray clinging to a lead of just two points, it seemed like an aberration. But in October, two more Republican-leaning polls put Ms. Murray barely ahead, and a third said the race was a dead heat.

(snip)

Ms. Murray’s own polling showed her with a comfortable lead, and a nonprofit regional news site, using an established local pollster, had her up by 13. Unwilling to take chances, however, she went on the defensive, scuttling her practice of lavishing some of her war chest — she amassed $20 million — on more vulnerable Democratic candidates elsewhere. Instead, she reaped financial help from the party’s national Senate committee and supportive super PACs — resources that would, as a result, be unavailable to other Democrats.

A similar sequence of events played out in battlegrounds nationwide. Surveys showing strength for Republicans, often from the same partisan pollsters, set Democratic klaxons blaring in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Coupled with the political factors already favoring Republicans — including inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — the skewed polls helped feed what quickly became an inescapable political narrative: A Republican wave election was about to hit the country with hurricane force. Democrats in each of those states went on to win their Senate races. Ms. Murray clobbered Ms. Smiley by nearly 15 points.

(snip)

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html

[FakeNoose]

22. It's a signal that the independent voters are with us

Always a good sign.

[republianmushroom]

23. Beware of overconfident.

Remember 2016

[BumRushDaShow]

25. After 2016, no one on DU will ever be "over confident"

but we also have to be mindful of what happened in ALL of the elections after that, and notably in 2022 when the promised "Red Tsunami/shellacking/destruction" didn't happen.

[Demsrule86]

35. We also took back the Michigan legislature about two weeks ago.

it had been tied I believe.

[BumRushDaShow]

37. And here in PA

for the first time in a dozen years, Democrats took control of the PA state House! That was in 2022.

There is actually meaningful legislation being drafted, discussed, and debated, at least in that chamber. Now we need to take the state Senate and we'll be on our way!!!

[Demsrule86]

36. You can't compare 2016 to now. First of all. We did not have a bitter divisive primary

this year, Secondly the right had ginned up the hate against Hillary Clinton and finally a few on the left managed to sabotage the election by siphoning off votes in usually blue rust states...I hope Stein and all of those who support her...also those who stayed home or wrote in candidates never have a peaceful night again...it is on them...women who die from pregnancy complications. The victims of incest and/or rape forced to carry babies...forced birth. How about the babies kidnapped at the border by Trump's brown shirts...many were later adopted out. A million dead from Covid because of Trump's incompetence...And I could go on. But Trump's disastrous term ended with a serious attempt to overthrow our Democracy.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

24. NOOO!! Don't encourage RFK(q-anon) n/t

[Kennah]

26. Dark Brandon responds

[liberalla]

30. Excellent! Love it!

[pandr32]

27. Music to my ears.

[sheshe2]

28. Whoa 😳

36% points.
Excellent news!

[liberalla]

29. Woo Hoo! This is a BFD!!!

Great news, and a sign of things to come? I hope so!

[Blue Owl]

31. Goddamn right, MAGA scum

[LetMyPeopleVote]

32. This makes me smile

[LiberalFighter]

33. The Cook Political Report, .... had expected Kennedy to win the seat by 9 percentage points.

[Demsrule86]

34. Had to have a second course of antibiotics...but feeling good today.

They are important and show us why polls are wrong...deliberately sabotaged in some cases. I wouldn't be surprised if Florida and maybe even Texas go blue...As Biden said, never underestimate the power of women. My election friend who has worked even more elections in Ohio than me believes Ohio is in play. Candidates need to run on Roe and saving our democracy.