Scott Walker LEADS all democrats who are thinking of running against him

[bigdarryl]

They better get there act together in Wisconsin and come up with a creditable candidate http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/poll-walker-starts-out-ahead-against-dems-in-wisconsin-recall.php?ref=fpa

[atreides1]

1. Should have already had a candidate

Before they turned in the recall signatures!

[jeff47]

2. Meh. Not concerning yet

Walker is well known, and is well known to be running. There isn't an official Democratic candidate to rally around, which tends to weaken support.

[onehandle]

3. If the million+ signers all get their butts to the poll, he doesn't have a chance.

If they can collect those signatures, but cannot unseat him, it's a massive fuck up.

[JTFrog]

7. According to a post here, they surpassed one million.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1002180702

*on edit - oops I misunderstood your post at first. reading too fast.

[Indydem]

11. Why is that?

A million people voted against him in a relatively non-contentious off year election.

Now you have a highly contentious (on both sides) campaign without a candidate, in an election year. If you think that only 2 million people are going to show up for that election you are mistaken.

[renie408]

17. Let's think about this...

The highest turnout that can reasonably be expected in Wisconsin is 2,997,086 voters. If well over a million of those voters have cared enough about getting rid of Scott Walker to sign a petition, I am thinking he could be in trouble. But I have to say, I figured getting rid of Walker would be a slam dunk, and it might not work out that way.

http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2008G.html

[Indydem]

28. Take 2010 as a benchmark

Total turnout for the 2010 election when walker was elected was 2,158,974

Of those, 1,004,303 voted against Walker in the first place.

I am sure that there are people who chose not to vote in a mid term. I am sure that there were people who may not be political who may vote in a recall.

But overall, with the enormous effort put forth to collect signatures, those who were truly passionate about removing Walker (passionate enough to show up for a mid-summer special election) likely already signed the petition. But let's assume that you get every single person who signed the petition AND another 10% to vote in the recall election. That's a total of 1,100,000 votes.

On the other side, you have Scott Walker, the Republican wet dream who's pissed all over Wisconsin public sector unions and slashed spending. The republicans are all fired up and pissed off at the unions and Democrats for this recall effort, and they are raising LOTS of money to fight against the recalls. So lets assume that Walker gets the same amount of voters that he did in the 2010 election (assuming 10% move to vote against, and 10% who did not vote in the mid term election decide to get active).

Walker still wins re-election.

Wisconsin voters are election fatigued going into the 2012 presidential cycle,and the Wisconsin republican base is fired up after a victory, potentially spelling trouble for President Obama.

Nothing is certain. But this race is nowhere near the walk in the park that many of our people have made it out to be.

[spooky3]

51. to say nothing about all of the Citizens United money

We've seen in the Repub. presidential primaries what a huge role big Republican $ play.

It's definitely not a slam dunk.

[TheWraith]

25. There's 3.5 million registered voters in Wisconsin.

1 million is not a majority.

[onehandle]

35. There were just over two million votes cast in that race in 2010.

Walker won by 128,000 votes. Not a big margin.

How many of those one million recall signers did not vote that year? My guess is a lot.

Between the union activity and Democrats gearing up for the President's re-election, I think we have a lot of power on our side.

I don't think the teahadists are going to be on their game this year.

[onenote]

40. Its easier to sign a petition when its presented to you than it is to get up off your butt and vote

Being motivated to sign a recall petition doesn't necessarily equate to being motivated enough to vote. Wish it did, but bet it doesn't.

[Scuba]

4. Against a bunch of unannounced, mostly within margin of error. Wait 'til we start campaigning...

... against him and FOR our candidate.


Besides, the VERY reputable St. Norbert's poll said 58% want him out.

[IFOWONCO]

6. Good point, also:

"The Walker campaign announced on Tuesday that he raised $4.5 million in just the period from December 11 through Jan 17, and has over $2.6 million on hand. In all, he has raised $12 million since January 1, 2011."

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/01/scott-walker-raises-45-million-in-just-over-a-month.php

A little math tells me that Walker has spent almost $10 million over the past year, those poll numbers could definitely even out when there is some significant spending on the other side.

[Plucketeer]

45. Yeah, once this thing gets rolling

it'll winnow down to the front-runner opposition, and Scottie will get to meet his new governor.

[southernyankeebelle]

5. I don't believe it.

[Sera_Bellum]

20. I am with you.

Herr Walker's days of tyranny are coming to a close.

[southernyankeebelle]

23. I wouldn't be surprised if it will be rugged if he wins. Maybe that is why they are putting

out the information.

[Sera_Bellum]

30. Unfortunately,

rigging elections may be the only thing Republicans have left. They are not the party of ideas, empathy or any other thing decent and noble.

But I will always believe in good.

[southernyankeebelle]

31. Hmm good does not equal republicans.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

8. this is no surprise, given the circumstances.

in fact, it will get worse before the news gets better:

1. pollsters are forced to use tainted databases - no cell phone only people (liberal, younger, educated) are included.

2. There is no democrat around whom people can gather. If there was one big name, there would be a much closer result.

3. Wanker has 6 million to spend. And plenty of conservative friends willing to add more. The advertising wars will be horrible. Worse than what Florida is seeing from the GOP.


but eventually, things will go well, and I predict we will win.

[SaintPete]

24. Cell phones were included in this poll

(Landlines = 73%, Cells = 27%)

According to a recent US Gvt study, approximately 28% of Wisconsin households are Cell phone only, which comes very close to the survey methodology.

Also, surveyed Democrats slightly outnumbered surveyed Republicans, but Independents were under-represented.
(D = 46%, R = 44%, I = 10%)

The idea that cell phones are not being represented in surveys used to be true, but not so much now as before.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/MLSPJanMethodology.pdf

An interesting thing about this poll: it did not show results of Walker vs Feingold.

[SaintPete]

34. Marquette, BTW, is both the Law School where Feingold teaches...

and the provider of this poll

[ChairmanAgnostic]

36. neat. thanks!

[EC]

53. And Marquette is extremely

right wing. It's also a Catholic school.

[Myrina]

9. Not a surprise.

I've said it before ... they have to come up with someone completely OUTSIDE the existing party structure. Someone with totally fresh eyes and new populist ideas, or 'the devil they know' will remain in office.

Indy had/has a ridiculous village idiot for mayor, slammed from all sides for incompetence and cronyism, and by all accounts should have lost the Nov election by a landslide. But the Dem Machinery put up a candidate who'd already been in the political system, had negative notoriety, and held (and lost) lower offices ... and sure as sh*t, she lost to him.

[Lost-in-FL]

19. That explains a lot. Thanks! nt

[rtracey]

10. hmmm?

Well, somebody voted him in, so why wouldn't the same group vote him in again.

[TBF]

42. Many blue collar voters associated him with "family values" and became

very upset when he started attacking teachers and state workers (union bashing). Some are steadfast in his camp, but others have had an awakening.

[DFW]

12. Bullwinkle should be leading Walker by 15

This is not time to get smug, but time to get a candidate who comes out swinging, and early!

[marmar]

13. So the recall vote would not be separate from the vote to replace the governor?

nt

[McCamy Taylor]

14. SuperPac for Walker can front several "Dems" to trash talk the others and

decide who will finally enter the run-off with Walker. This is one of the most powerful aspects of SuperPacs---the sock puppet candidate.

[Overseas]

49. Good point!

[Lost-in-FL]

15. Humhummm… yup, very credible I tell ya.

Smells like someone is throwing crap to test if it sticks. PsyOps, propaganda, etc. IMO.

[OnTheOtherHand]

16. yeesh

Why shouldn't Walker be ahead in a poll against people who aren't even campaigning yet? Why does that have to be "PsyOps"?

[Lost-in-FL]

18. Why should I not believe the numbers? Maybe you know something I don't know.

Last edited Wed Jan 25, 2012, 05:01 PM - Edit history (1)

A lot of money/influence is at play in this election and the conservatives are smelling it. The recall campaign collected double the signatures needed to get ride of him (That I heard).

Seriously, is "any" democrat worse than Walker? I don't live in the area of course, I am curious to know.

[TheWraith]

27. If it doesn't say what we want, obviously it's propaganda!

Sometimes people really need to get their heads out of the paranoia bubble. There is not a huge conspiracy to control everything you hear, you cannot make up election results, and not everything is an attempt to propagandize. Sometimes things genuinely do not go our way.

[Lost-in-FL]

33. Speaking of living in a "paranoia bubble".

What makes you think that because I stated that I "do not believe" something to be quite right, it automatically indicates that I am paranoid? Just because I used the term "PsyOps"? Lol!!! You should get off the net and go outside for a bit, enjoy interacting with other human beings. It is actually a good thing.

[SoapBox]

21. Don't even tell me that the Dems are going to totally blow this!?!

...I'm not following this intimately BUT...I've not heard of any serious candidates.

Have I missed something?

[thoughtcrime1984]

22. OK, I live in WI, and I can tell you...

1. Consider the source of the polling, and the small sample size- however, they DID call cell phones as well as land lines.

2. There are other potential candidates in the wings- In order of likelihood to run, IMO, 1) Sen. Kathleen Vinehout (my pick for Governor, she is as honest a politician as you will find, and VERY level-headed, also supremely aware of all of the issues), 2) Sen. Jon Erpenbach (was the main face of the Fab 14 Senators that spent three weeks in IL to "filibuster" the radical Walker "Budget Repair Bill&quot , 3) Assemblyman Peter Barca (Has taken a vocal approach to the bullying tactics of the GOP-controlled Assembly, another solid citizen that would do well once he is better known).

3. This state is not as blue as it appears, think Bush vs. Gore and Bush vs. Kerry. Obama vs. McCain was an outlier. This state is as close to 50/50 as any you will find.

4. Quite literally, half of the state appears to "Stand with Walker" (puke) as they have it crammed in their tiny brains that he has saved this state money. They believe the deluge of ads that we have been receiving since virtually the time he began to run for office. He is always in "campaign" mode, always raising ALEC money.

5. Getting the required signatures was always considered to be likely, but was not a sure thing. This is uncharted territory, and it would have been pretentious to run ads for a candidate (and we would have had to skip a primary, which would just be wrong) that may not even have an office to run for. All of the potential candidates have had time to think of how they want to approach this, the chips are falling where they may. There will be a primary chock full of qualified candidates. We will choose a strong one and rally around her/him.

6. This is going to be an extremely close election, we face a very corrupt administration that has gone to extraordinary lengths to foist the ALEC mandates upon us, and it is widely believed the Supreme Court election was rigged in Waukesha County by Kathy Nickolaus (another story all its' own), and there will no doubt be questionable tactics continuing, and the unending Walker negative ad campaign, peppered with his majestic ads of his "heroism", which we are inundated with already. This is too close to call, I am not terribly confident we will prevail- there are a lot of know-nothings that are wringing their hands over taxes, and will eat any specious thing they are told with a shovel. If we lose, please do not say we "fucked up", as you have no idea what we are dealing with. None. (ugh)

[thoughtcrime1984]

26. I should qualify my #6 statement

If you live in OH, IN, MI, or any other state with the new-wave of Tea Party Governors, then you probably DO know what we are facing, and as you know, there are a lot of obstacles to overcome. There are a lot of dedicated, wonderful activists and grassroots folks here that have worked their tails off to get even to this point. Our state Dems are putting our best effort into this, make no mistake!

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

38. I really like Sen. Jon Erpenbach and thought that he would announce his plans

to run, but you guys can't afford to lose another senator, right? The balance of power may be affected if he can't be replaced with another Democrat.

[thoughtcrime1984]

39. I'm not sure of the situation in Sen. Erpenbach's district...

I do know that Sen. Vinehout's prior two elections were very narrow victories, and it would be a challenge to keep that seat blue if she were to leave. Remember, however, that four more Republican Senators are up for recall, and I think one or two of those seats are reachable. I want the best candidate, regardless of the vacancy left behind. I just hope if we have a Senator as our candidate, that they can eloquently explain the reason why the "Fab 14" went to IL. I know we on DU fully understand why, but Average Joe is still pissed that they left the state for three weeks, because Average Joe doesn't know any better.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

41. I guess I just can't wrap my brain around the fact that the Democrats don't even have a viable

candidate to run against Walker. It seems crazy to me. The GOP draft Schwartzenegger immediately to run against Gray Davis.

I'm trying to understand what the Democrats are doing.

[thoughtcrime1984]

65. They have several viable candidates

I listed three that weren't mentioned, and a couple of the previously mentioned ones are good, too. The recall signatures haven't even been validated yet. There will be a primary when one is warranted, then a candidate will be selected from a strong field.

[Lost-in-FL]

29. Thanks for your informed response.

It is very helpful to read informed opinions from others in that state. It is very refreshing to read this after the "snarky" responses some sad people give.

[rocktivity]

32. First, stories pop up about how expensive this is getting

Then a commercial to that effect from the assistant governor. Then the song, "We stand with Walker." And now polls pitting Walker in a head-to-four-head contest. Intimidate and demoralize much?


rocktivity

[thoughtcrime1984]

37. Cost of the recall election was estimated to be $9M, cost to keep Walker in office...

has already exceeded that for the majority of residents, and will be MUCH higher if he continues on as Governor. Unfortunately, all that some can see is that he gutted several programs, and "saved" us money. Never mind that these services have to be made up and paid for at the local levels of government (with tax increases), or privatized, which costs a whole lot more. Some very simple folks here, and some brilliant ones, some middling, just like anywhere else, I suppose. I actually read the 120+ page "Budget Repair Bill", and it made me feel ill- not only all of the cuts, and blows to public unions, but language that allows for sale of state assets to private parties, ie. Koch Brothers, etc. for, effectively, nothing. I want nothing to do with the possibility of Right to Work or Emergency takeovers of municipalities deemed to be "failing". That is what is next if we don't remove Walker from office.

[wial]

43. as has been pointed out elsewhere

that survey is very biased. It was taken primarily in GOP strongholds. All it says is Walker can barely win even in his areas of greatest support, the white flight suburbs of the Fox Valley and Milwaukee.

Over a million signed the petition. They'll all vote, and so will at least a few more who didn't sign, and that's all it takes.

[Marnie]

44. If Walker is recalled can he run again?

[indivisibleman]

46. poll is being represented incorrectly

I believe this is the poll that asked about name recognition and if people were familiar with what each candidate represented. It was not a poll asking who you would vote for.
Also, I have read that over half of the people polled were from conservative districts. In WI this will represent some counties that vote up to 65% conservative as opposed to other counties that are moderate or some that vote up to 65% progressive.
Walker won in the general election by about 100,000 votes. Not much at all in a race that most people were not very well informed on. With a good Democratic candidate his ass is toast. Heck even a good Republican candidate would be better than him. He is just plain awful.

[Thrill]

47. What happened to Feingold?

[dragonlady]

48. He has said he will not run for any office in the near future

He has been quite firm about this decision so far. Who knows whether he could be persuaded, but he is said to be happy with his life now, teaching law, writing a book, and working with the progressive group he started.

[bluestateguy]

50. No more polls.

Can we do that please.

Good. Thanks.

[EC]

52. That poll was done by a repub law school

Marquette. It's far from reliable or a clear picture of what's going on in WI. There were other polls showing him way behind.

But this is good, it'll make the repubs (tps) complacent and maybe they'll stay home.

[Ellipsis]

63. A well respected private catholic college would be more apt. There's no bullshit going on there.

Where Russ Feingold just happens to teach..... Let's just wait and see how things shake out before we cast asparagus.

[Pachamama]

54. Attention! Shout out to Russ Feingold!

Your state & country need you....

Governor Feingold sounds really good..... Sounds like victory and will scare poor Scotty.

[valerief]

55. It's easy when you can buy polls. nt

[JI7]

56. someone on Ed Schultz said the Poll was done by some Republican

not saying that alone means it's not real. but suspect. either way, there will be time and hopefully a Dem will win in the end.

[still_one]

57. The Democratic party has been lazy for far too long, which is why we are in the situation we are in.

We should never have lost Ted Kennedy's seat, or for that matter the 2000 election. From the Iraq War Resolution to other outrages, many congressional democrats were complicit

The party needs new blood, like Elizabeth Warren, who are NOT afraid to fight for principles

[N7Shepard]

58. Poll is flawed. Way too many old people polled. 29% 60+ years old???

WI is only 13.7% age 65+ Take away the kids and add back in the 60-64 year olds and you still don't more than double the old population.

[Indydem]

62. Old people vote.

Apathetic youths, not so much.

[LovingA2andMI]

59. I didn't like Statistics

BUT....this "poll" is crap because the margin of error is +/- 7%. With that, this "poll" is not worth any type of salt.

[GTurck]

60. Is it because...

of the big money Walker is collecting and using? It just doesn't make any sense that a million recall signatures translate into Walker winning --again. Could it be that the poller should be suspected of skewing the numbers? NAH! That would be crazy.

[N7Shepard]

61. Let's wait for another poll before getting worried. Polls can be flawed. Once

Rassmussen (who did not conduct this poll) was off by 40% in Hawaii.

[Doctor_J]

64. I don't think any serious observers thought this would actually remove him from office

Between the voter suppression, hate radio, and the fact that signing a petition is easier than getting someone to actually go to the polls, this was pretty much of a pipe dream. Not really any more effective in the short term than OWS. If the Dems can gain some organization and momentum from it for the future (i. e. actually DOING something about the first two problems), it will be worth something, but it's pretty meaningless for a single election.