Kerry portrait of Syria rebels at odds with intelligence reports

[jakeXT]

Source: Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Secretary of State John Kerry's public assertions that moderate Syrian opposition groups are growing in influence appear to be at odds with estimates by U.S. and European intelligence sources and nongovernmental experts, who say Islamic extremists remain by far the fiercest and best-organized rebel elements.

At congressional hearings this week, while making the case for President Barack Obama's plan for limited military action in Syria, Kerry asserted that the armed opposition to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "has increasingly become more defined by its moderation, more defined by the breadth of its membership, and more defined by its adherence to some, you know, democratic process and to an all-inclusive, minority-protecting constitution.

"And the opposition is getting stronger by the day," Kerry told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Tuesday.

U.S. and allied intelligence sources and private experts on the Syrian conflict suggest that assessment is optimistic.

Read more: http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE98405L20130905?feedType=RSS&irpc=932

[daleo]

1. Wishful thinking, at best.

[LuvNewcastle]

2. Awww hell, when are people going to get wise to this bullshit?

When we're fighting Muslims and the military wants money, they say we're fighting extremists who are armed to the teeth. When we're fighting along side of them, they're moderate and democratic, and the media never seems to notice any of it, of course. When are we going to finally get enough of this shit? I know there's no hope for Congress; they see what they want to see, for the most part. I wonder what it's going to take for people to realize that they've seen this one before.

[jakeXT]

4. That's what Grayson said in an interview

There was some thought that John Boehner and Eric Cantor coming out in favor of intervention might mean momentum was building in that direction.

Absolutely not. I think it's a fantasy to talk about momentum. Conceivably it will end up losing two to one instead of four to one. But there certainly is no momentum in favor of the other side's point of view. They're going to have to line up a staggering percentage of the undecideds to even come close. The ones listed as undecided, I’ve talked to lot of them. They're not really undecided. They're just waiting for a prudent time to make clear that this doesn't make sense for America.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/09/the-democratic-congressman-who-thinks-he-can-stop-the-syria-war/279309/

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251322305

[L0oniX]

11. +1

[former9thward]

12. Latest Whip count is 48 yes, 200 no.

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2013/09/02/2561371/congress-support-military-action-syria-thinkprogress-whip-count/

[Divernan]

5. It's not so much what Congress WANTS to see; it's what they're BRIBED to see.

As in lobbyists' political donations & promises of post-elective office income opportunities - board appointments, speech fees, etc.

[grahamhgreen]

3. What, they wouldn'y lie to us, they're our freeeeeeeeeeeeinds;)

"Having a mandate to buy health insurance is like forcing the homeless to buy houses". - Barack Hussein Obama, 2008

[eridani]

6. "Christians to Beirut; Alawites to the grave" n/t

[Scootaloo]

7. "Some, you know, democratic process" - like, yeah, totally! Or some junk?

Look, I have no doubt there are these guys in Syria. The men and women who were with the Arab Spring are still there (the ones who haven't been killed, of course) and the dream is still there. We didn't give them any support two years ago because we were very comfortable with our dictators in the middle east, even the outlier Assad, who wasn't really "ours."

The FSA and other factions that these people have taken with have been steadily waning in power due to attrition from two sides - the Assad government and the mujahadeen groups. Assad's been securing his position, the FSA's resources are exhausted, and the mujahadeen are financed and armed from Saudi Arabia.

Two years ago? Maybe we could have done something. Today? I'm sure they wouldn't mind the help, but a few missiles here and there and sporiadic aid filtered through King Abdullah isn't going to help.

[pampango]

8. "fiercest and best-organized" is hard to argue with, though not the most numerous.

From Juan Cole:

A US attack on Syria will Prolong the War

The struggle in Syria began peacefully in spring of 2011, but after about half a year it turned violent when the regime deployed tanks and other heavy munitions against the protesters. Some of the latter took up weapons and turned to violence in revenge. Thereafter the struggle spiraled into a civil war, in which the regime showed itself perfectly willing to attack civilian city quarters and kill indiscriminately. The struggle has killed over 100,000 persons. As the regime became ever more brutal, the rebel fighters were increasingly radicalized. Now, among the more important groups is Jabhat al-Nusra or the Succor Front, a radical al-Qaeda affiliate.

The hope for avoiding another decade of killing is that the governmental elite and the rebels get tired of fighting and prove willing to make a deal. ... At the same time, members of the opposition were given seats in the cabinet. That kind of cohabitation with the former enemy is easier if too much blood hasn’t bee shed. The best solution for Syria would be if President Bashar al-Assad steps down and the Baath Party gave up its dictatorial tactics. At the same time, the rebels would have to forewswear al-Qaeda-type extremism.

The prospect of a US missile strike is emboldening the rebels. They increasingly hope that the US will come in militarily with them. The rebels don’t look at the proposed US missile strikes as a limited affair or as solely related to chemical weapons use. Aside from al-Qaeda, they see the US as an ally.

By striking Syria, Obama has all but guaranteed that a negotiated solution becomes impossible for years to come. In the absence of serious negotiations, the civil war will continue and likely get worse. The US should give serious thought to what the likely actual (as opposed to ideal) reaction in Syria will be to the landing of a few cruise missiles. The anti-regime elements will celebrate, convinced that it will all be over quickly if the US gets involved. The last thing they will want will be to negotiate with the regime.

http://www.juancole.com/2013/09/attack-syria-prolong.html

JFK: Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.

The radicalization of the opposition is not a surprise. Indeed, Assad undoubtedly knew in 2011 that, if his army did not win a quick victory over protesters and army defectors, "violent revolution" would become "inevitable". Many protesters would see that "peaceful revolution" was impossible and a prolonged conflict would attract the worst types of fighters from around the region. With a large and effective military he would have an advantage in winning a "violent revolution". He is a smart man.

[Festivito]

9. at odds? all I see is generic hoo-haa.

Breadth can indicate a stronger grouping with fewer people.

Looks to me like someone is looking at rhetoric and being a literalist.

[L0oniX]

10. Kerry is full of shit. That is all. n/t

[John2]

14. He is full of shit,

and I agree with Putin. This man is talking about the same people the Kurds are fighting in Syria. Who is he talking about in Syria among minorities? Is he claiming Alawites or Christians. Why does the SNC need a puppet of Saudi Arabia to lead them? He left his Senate seat, so he wouldn't have to run for another Election and the man literally campaigned for the job of Secretary of State, along with his republican friends John McCain, Lindsy Graham and Susan Collins. That is four U.S. Senators that backed the illegal War against Iraq, and John Kerry swore he was misled. He lied.He claims that he has good judgement and know intelligence, well play it again about what he claimed before voting for Iraq and when he faced the voters how he claim the Bush Administration misled him. He is a flipflopper.

Both Kerry and John McCain use their service records for political gain and both were very ambitious, but there are many people who served in Vietnam that probably deserves more or just as much. Especially those who didn't come back. I had friends and family fought in that War and neither are no better than them. Kerry wanted McCain to be his Vice President. The resolution against the use of chemical weapons is a UN resolution. It is not a United States Resolution. If a country alleges the United States or Israel violated international law by using chemical weapons, it will be hard to enforce punishment on them because of the U.S.'s influence in the U.N. Russia and China are suppose to have equal influence but the U.S. is thumbing its nose up at Russia and China. By any other definition, one would call that a sign of arrogance and dictatorial.

As an American citizen, I find those that claim to represent the American people in our Government embarrassing. These are the same people that turned the blind eye to Torture and the violation of the Geneva Conventions by manipulating words to fit their agendas. These are the same people claiming they are too Big to fail in this country. They believe in different laws for some people. The Saudi Monarch or all of the Monarchies have went to some politicians heads in this country. They need to be put in their places, mainly by us. I think the Western Media needs a lesson too. They are no good for nothing.

[blkmusclmachine]

13. LIES