August payroll employment increases (+169,000); unemployment rate little changed (7.3%)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- AUGUST 2013


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 169,000 in August, and
the unemployment rate was little changed at 7.3 percent, the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in retail
trade and health care but declined in information.

Household Survey Data

Both the number of unemployed persons, at 11.3 million, and the
unemployment rate, at 7.3 percent, changed little in August. The
jobless rate is down from 8.1 percent a year ago. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men
(7.1 percent), adult women (6.3 percent), teenagers (22.7 percent),
whites (6.4 percent), blacks (13.0 percent), and Hispanics (9.3
percent) showed little change in August. The jobless rate for Asians
was 5.1 percent (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year
earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

In August, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27
weeks or more) was about unchanged at 4.3 million. These individuals
accounted for 37.9 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months,
the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 733,000. (See
table A-12.)

Read more: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome viewers from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so you ought to see this as much as anyone. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm

An increase of 169,000 corresponds closely with ADP's figure, which was released yesterday:

ADP National Employment Report Shows 176,000 Jobs Added in August
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014586209

I heard the thought expressed on the radio this morning that the unemployment number, 7.3%, might go up a little as people re-enter the job market. It did not.

What is important about these statistics is not so much this month’s number, but the trend. So let’s look at some earlier numbers.

ADP, for employment in July 2013:

U.S. Economy Added 200,000 Private-Sector Jobs in July, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014553108

BLS, for employment in April 2013:

April payroll employment increases by 165,000; unemployment rate changes little (7.5%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/111634764

ADP, for employment in April 2013:

US Economy Added 119000 Private-Sector Jobs in April, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014470978

BLS, for employment in March 2013:

March payroll employment edges up (+88,000); unemployment rate changes little (7.6%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014445294

ADP, for employment in March 2013:

U.S. Economy Added 158,000 Private-Sector Jobs in March, According to ADP National Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014442827

BLS, for employment in February 2013:

February payroll employment rises (+236,000); unemployment rate edges down (7.7%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014419050

ADP, for employment in February 2013:

U.S. Economy Added 198,000 Private-Sector Jobs in February, According to ADP Employment Report
http://www.democraticunderground.com/111631869

BLS, for employment in January 2013:

January payroll employment rises (+157,000); jobless rate essentially unchanged (7.9%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014387295

ADP, for employment in January 2013:

U.S. Economy Added 192,000 Private-Sector Jobs in January, According to ADP National Employment Repo
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014384927

BLS, for employment in December 2012:

December payroll employment rises (+155,000); unemployment rate unchanged (7.8%)
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014356331

From The Wall Street Journal. of January 4, 2013:

Economy Adds 155,000 Jobs
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324374004578221291910741394.html



When the figures for May 2012 were released, Judson Phillips of Tea Party Nation was on Tom Hartmann that Friday night. He kept referring to the "U-6 Number." That can be found in Table A15. It is "Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force." It appears in two forms, seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted. Either way, it is the least optimistic of all the estimates.

Thanks to DUer alp227, you can watch Judson Phillips’s appearance on Tom Hartmannn here: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014184289#post12

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that.

http://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/calculator/index.cfm
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Monthly Employment Reports

The large print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

A DU'er pointed out several months ago that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to "Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization." Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here are those links.

Employment Situation

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

From the February 10, 2011, "DOL Newsletter":

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The "household survey," or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The "establishment survey," or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

Well, enough of that. On with the show.

[BumRushDaShow]

1. Good Friday morning and thanks for your posting these!

[OnlinePoker]

2. June and July adjusted down

A combined total of 74000 less jobs than previously reported.

[Igel]

3. Which, given the numbers, is meaningful.

The big print giveth, and the fine print taketh away.

But we can exult over the big print and hope that the fine print doesn't matter. I propose that we coin a verb for that: "subpriming".