http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prudhoe_Bay_Oil_Field
And while the 25 Billion barrel of oil for the north slope of Alaska was a 50% Confidence Figure (and like most 50% confidence estimates tends to be roughly what a oil well does produce even with advance recovery methods). this 1.3 million may be a 10% confidence level report.
The Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the New York Stock Exchange generally require any reports issued by any company selling stock has to use the 90% confidence level. A 10% confidence level report is often issued by people who want make the report as big as possible.
The Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the New York Stock Exchange requirement for a 90% confidence report is so that investors have the best available knowledge as to the oil in such fields, for a 90% confidence level means the well had a 90% chance of producing at least that much oil, and probably more (When you read about increase in oil reserves from oil wells it is an increase from the 90% confidence level as secondary and then more advance oil recovery methods are used on such oil fields).
Insiders tend to go with the 50% confidence reports, for it tends to reflect what most wells will produce with the use of advance recovery methods. It is NOT liked by Financial interests for it is to speculative, but overall tends to be what most wells produce (some will do better some will do worse that is why it is a 50% confidence report, you may win or lose depending of the flip of the coin). Thus over a range of oil fields, such fields as a group of fields tend to average around the 50% confidence level, but each field by itself will be less than or greater then that number. Such reports are liked by insiders for it gives a good over all feel for all of the fields, it is disliked by the financial system, who prefers to view each field by itself.
The 10% confidence level generally is how much total oil is in the field, but ignores what can be recovered even using the most advance oil recovery methods. A report based on ALL of the oil in a field, NOT all of the recoverable oil, is just about as good as a 10% confidence report. The 10% confidence report has the feel of a 90% confidence report, but the numbers are meaningless in the real world for the numbers is no where neat to how much oil field will produce. A 10% confidence report, or even a total oil in the filed report is favored by Government owned oil groups for they do NOT have to report accurately how much oil they can produce except to the Government that owns them (and such real reports are kept secret for internal use only). These same agencies will release total oil in the field reports as well as the 10% confidence reports for both give the highest number of oil in such fields (Private Companies would and have done the same, but the SEC will sue them and even arrest they officers if they did so, thus most private companies do NOT release such numbers but are released by companies that do not fear the SEC).
Just my comments that this announcements of a huge oil findings may NOT be as significant as the report implies. 1.3 Billion is a lot less then 25 Billion of the North Slope of Alaska (Which is in the last stages of depletion) and given the source of the report the oil field my NOT be as high is is will be. i.e a 10% confidence report NOT a 50 % or 90% confidence report (Oil recoverable from the field my be as low as 10% of the numbers released).
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