CNN projects Romney will win Washington state caucuses

[Alexander]

Source: CNN

(CNN) -- Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney will win Saturday's Republican caucuses in Washington state, CNN projects.

At stake in the contest are 40 delegates, as well as a quick shot of momentum heading into Super Tuesday.

Washington's caucuses come just three days before Super Tuesday, when 10 states hold primaries and caucuses. And because of that, all four major GOP presidential candidates campaigned in the state, hoping a strong finish there would carry over to Tuesday.

Before CNN's projection was announced, state GOP chairman Kirby Wilbur predicted a win for either Romney or Texas Rep. Ron Paul. He also reported a large turnout.

Read more: http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/03/politics/washington-caucuses/index.html

[DCBob]

1. Rmoney has the momentum now.

I suspect this will carry over to Super Tuesday... unless he steps in it again... which is very possible.

[customerserviceguy]

5. I have to say, I'm a bit surprised

Polls showed Santorum ahead in WA state just a couple of weeks ago. I guess all that focus on contraception and women's health issues were too much for even the Republican voters of Washington, and enough of them soured on him. If Mittens can win WA, he can win a number of other states on Tuesday (I had him only at VA and MA) and probably get this thing. I hadn't figured on Sicky Ricky blowing his lead so quickly and so completely. Joey Scar had a piece over at Politico today on how this happened, and it seems that he had a point.

In any case, I do welcome this as a sign that there are not enough reich wingers in WA to defeat equal marriage there. Even if they manage to get enough signatures, I expect the people of WA to defeat any initiative to overturn the new marriage equality law in November. I'll be proud of the state where I lived for thirty-seven years for being the first state whose voters said it was time to end marriage inequality.

[Mr.Turnip]

7. Polls also showed Paul getting 10 or so percent.

the most recent polls showed Romney and Santorum getting more of the vote then they are now too.

Im starting to think that polling caucus states is only useful insofar as peaking at who has momentum.

[customerserviceguy]

9. Good point

Santorum got a huge push from that triple-state win a few weeks ago, and that's what PPP might have measured at that time. He has squandered it mightily.

I've been in Ohio the last couple of days, and I have yet to see even ONE sign or bumper sticker involving the GOP presidential race that is taking place in only a couple of days. I truly expected to see more effort by the campaigns, three of the four are here in this state today. I did see a Ron Paul bumper sticker on a minivan in New Jersey on the way out, but that's the only thing I've seen on this trip.

[DCBob]

18. It seems there are about 20-30% of GOP primary voters who can turn on a dime..

depending on which way the wind is blowing. Candidates can go from 10 up to 10 down in matter of days.

I think Tuesday is going to be a big day for Romney mainly because of his momentum. Here is how I have it at the moment:

Romney: MA, VA, VT, ID, ND (close), OH (close but I think Romney wins it by 3-5 points)
Santorum: TN, OK (potential for a Romney upset)
Gingrich: GA
Paul: AK (close and might go Romney, like Maine)

Of course this all could change if Mittens makes another faux pas.

[jmowreader]

32. Put Idaho down as close too

It's going to hinge on whether the Mormons in the South or the teabaggers, Reagan Republicans and Rally Right people in the North are better at GOTV.

If the Mormons are better, Romney will win the state but he won't win the whole state--he has to hit 51 percent or better to take all our delegates, and he hasn't done that yet simply because people don't like him.

If the reich-wingers are, Paul will come out on top but, once again, won't win the whole state.

[customerserviceguy]

38. Yes, they're still "Searching for Mr. Goodpol"

I have only one theory left to come up with a scenario where Romney doesn't go into Tampa with a first ballot victory, no matter what Gingrich and Santorum pile up.

So far, he's only won in states that generally vote blue in the general election (Florida is the possible exception to this, but I'm not so sure that it's not a "Northeastern" state, what with all the migration down there) and places where he has a natural home-field advantage, such as the Western states of Nevada, Arizona, and soon to come, Idaho and Utah that have sizable Mormon populations which make up a fair-sized fraction of the GOP base that turns out for primaries and caucuses. Even in those cases, only once has he broken above the 40% figure.

If his partial victories in those places is mathematically enough to give him a majority of delegates, he wins. If he can keep Santorum and Gingrich around long enough to dilute the most reich wing vote, he insures that neither one wins another primary where those candidates do not have a home-field advantage. That keeps an anti-Mitt from emerging, as each one looks like a Romney-slayer to different groups of the Rethuglican base.

If either Noot or Ricky drops out, then he runs the risk of the survivor getting a good showing in the rest of the states, with Mittens winning the blues, the anti-Mitt winning the reds and the swing states. In that case, he has to make a deal with one of the two of them, or maybe with Paul by putting Rand on the ticket. He could have a winning strategy for the fall if he does the latter, as he will be attractive to more independent moderates than either Santorum or Gingrich ever could.

As for his faux pas, he's not going to make any of a more severe nature than he's already done. Hell, if he had the nomination all but in the hand last week, he would have slammed Limpballs himself instead of the weak answer he did give.

[dixiegrrrrl]

34. I remember when Wash, was so blue

at least on the West side of the Cascades.

Sigh.

[Muskypundit]

35. ? Even Massachusetts has republicans...

Washington is very blue.

[dixiegrrrrl]

36. Eastern Wa has gone quite red, says my family, who lives there.

[Muskypundit]

37. Lol it has always been red over there. We dont pay attention to them

We elect democrats to federal office.

[customerserviceguy]

39. One third of the WA electorate

is in King County, where Seattle is. Add in the neighboring counties of Snohomish to the north (Everett), Pierce to the south (Tacoma) and near-neighbor Thurston south of that (Olympia, the state capitol) and you've easily got about two-thirds of the vote in Washington state. There are small counties on and south of the Olympic Peninsula that routinely vote Democratic to counter some of the Eastern WA and Clark County (Portland suburb) vote.

[onehandle]

2. Rmoney, FTL!

The PRESIDENT is gonna KICK YOUR ASS!

[Mr.Turnip]

3. The Anti Romney voters fail at uniting behind a candidate so badly.

Also looking at these results and at the limited polling of the state makes me think polling caucus's really is entirely pointless.

And how many last places finishes will Newt have to endure before he realizes how irrelevant he is now.

Romney seems to have trouble breaking 40% pretty much everywhere, which is sad for a frontrunner.

[customerserviceguy]

6. Romney does have that problem

even in states where he's got that "home state" advantage. But, he had none here, and he still managed to pull it off. He may not coast to the nomination, but I think he brought himself back from the brink of extinction this week.

He's managed to win by keeping both Santorum and Noot alive and in the mix. Also, his slime machine is quite effective. We can expect that the honing it has received during the primary season will whet it for the general election. Remember when John McCain corrected that woman at his rally that called Barack Obama a Muslim terrorist, and he said that his opponent was a good, decent family man? We will not see that kind of graciousness out of Mittens.

[Mr.Turnip]

8. As much of a douche as Romney is he'd probably have to give roughly the same answer.

If he did not it would look terrible to the independents and it would possibly cause a media firestorm against him.
Also as you have probably noticed Romney tries to keep the most heavy attacks to his surrogates and his SuperPACs negative ads, while he himself just squawks about being a businessman and whatnot.

And Newt isn't really alive he's just delusional and unable to see what he's become in this race.

[customerserviceguy]

10. I can really see Romney's surrogates and super-PACs

pulling the kind of shit that would make the Swift Boaters blush. At some point he'd need to either repudiate them, or be considered to accede to them.

[Mr.Turnip]

11. They'll try that is pretty much certain

but being able to tear apart a pack of incompetents is different from being able to tear apart someone who has a lick of sense of what the hell he's doing and good message control.

Really it's pathetic how badly Santorum failed, he had everything going the way he needed it to go, he was poised to knock Romney down to near irrelevant by mid march but he somehow came to the conclusion that the best way for him to win would be to rant about contraception and attack education. He went too far to the lunatic right for even a decent chunk of the tea party.

[Amonester]

14. Frothy didn't go too far to the lunatic right...

because he IS the lunatic right, so he's got his a** kicked in a corner as it so *right*ly deserves...

[Mr.Turnip]

15. Well he failed at hiding just how crazy he is.

[magical thyme]

25. you have to understand your broader audience to respond off-script

that kind of moment is exactly where Mittens sticks platinum robotic foot in mouth every time.

He is not capable of gauging the emotional reactions of his audience, large or small, and responding accordingly.

[golfguru]

17. With 4 to 10 contenders in the race

it is almost impossible to get over 50% of vote, unless the other
contenders are really unknown and very weak. Ron Paul has his 10-15%
no matter what. Others have enough money to keep going.

[nxylas]

19. Gingrich has too big an ego, and too much money behind him, to realize

He is the only thing that stands between us and Auschwitz, remember? How do you withdraw from that?

[Gore1FL]

20. I think when it comes to uniting behind a candidate badly, they win.

They are doing an excellent job of uniting behind a candidate badly.

They are doing a horrible job of uniting behind a candidate well.

[Grassy Knoll]

4. Looks like Koch bros. Teabagger experiment...

has failed immensely, Fox talkers and ditto heads are having a bad week,
along with a birther sheriff, breitbart, and the Blunt failure.

[mikeh106]

12. Keep hoping Santorum stays in - and Gingrich too

The longer these clowns tear at each other the better for us. They all look like idiots and they're wasting plenty of $. I hope Mittens - or Santorum - doesn't wrap this up before their convention.

[Mr.Turnip]

13. Did they stop the count or something? it's taking forever for final results from King County.

[AtheistCrusader]

16. Keep in mind, this is a straw poll. Romney doesn't get shit until the county caucus on the 31st

and then they vote for actual state delegates.

CNN putting the cart before the horse with a little too much authority here.
Sit back and watch, from all the chatter by my Ron Paul co-workers, I think the republican convention is going to be hilarious. Paul's campaign is winning an insane number of delegates. Supporters of Romney just aren't willing to get off their asses and GO to the convention, which costs money.

An example: 15 people show up from a precinct. 4 become delegates. 8 people write down Romney, 4 Paul, 2 Santorum, 1 Gingrich.

The precinct gets 4 delegates. Since none of the Romney-ites, other than the PCO stand up and declare they want to be delegates, and are willing to drive to the thing, whatever they call it, you end up with:

1 delegate for Romney, 3 for Paul, 1 alternate for Paul, 1 alternate for Gingrich.

Grab your popcorn folks, their convention is going to be the funniest thing ever, because the neo-cons HATE HATE HATE HATE Paul. It's hilarious.


I predict the Republican Party self-destructs.

[mrmx9]

21. What is the real GOP delegate count now (allowing for Ron Paul activists in caucus states?)

Tampa will be interesting with all these Ron Paul supporters posing as Romney and Santorum delegates from the caucus states like Maine, Iowa, Washington etc. as well as some primary states like NH.

Not that the media - bar Rachel Maddow - want to even discuss Paul's existence. I just heard the moderator of Meet the Press David Gregory say Mittens is the only person on the ballot in Virginia on Tuesday - clearly Paul (who is also on the VA ballot) does not exist!

[AtheistCrusader]

23. I don't think we CAN know, until the convention.

This could be one of the greatest upsets in political history.
And we get front row seats.

[sofa king]

22. It's a force-feeding.

I think it all goes back to when Reagan torpedoed the non-re-election of Gerald Ford. Since then, the nominee has been picked ahead of time by a secretive circle of "powers that be" and then force-fed to the electorate. Republicans have no use for an election they can't steal, and they sure as hell aren't going to let "the people" choose the kingpin of their planned criminal empire.

Usually, the guy who came in second in a previous election cycle is the one who gets the nod: Reagan, Bush the Smarter, McCain, and Romney all lost a previous primary race before being anointed. Dole was an unsuccessful running mate in a previous election, and I don't care enough to look further than that.

Repeatedly in private Republican deliberations (most recently the Stratfor documents) it has come to light that the most important quality a GOP presidential candidate must possess is the ability to be "controlled" by the circle that chose him. Apparently being a proven loser somehow helps.

So if you're right and the moRons show up at the convention ready to toss a wrench in the works, it could get real ugly--especially if they fail, which I'm sure they will. I think that after Tuesday it will be only a matter of time before Romney gets the 1144 delegates he needs, and whatever the personal convictions of the delegates, most of them will be bound to ratify the PTB's decision on the first and second ballots.

The thing to keep in mind is that all of this is a form of election manipulation, the one and only thing Republicans are any damned good at. So they're sure to steal this for Romney no matter what happens down the line.

The real question is what's going to happen when they steal it in front of all those Ron Paul delegates at the convention. If they break off on a third-party trajectory after the convention, no Republican can win.

So my guess is that it's going to be a Romney/Paul ticket, and the moRons are going to do an excellent job of trashing Romney the whole way, just as Sarah Palin's drones sank John McCain's battleship.

[AtheistCrusader]

24. That's true, the party will never allow Ron Paul to make the ticket, which is sort of sad to watch.

His supporters are truly enthusiastic, and that's going to be un-fun to see.

I do doubt Paul will agree to be second fiddle to Romney, unless there's some sort of medical condition we don't know about, or Romney likes to fly around in single-engine planes.

[MMJjestic]

26. I would like to know what were the numbers of people caucusing the GOP as

opposed to those of us who caucused back in 2008 during the Democratic Party caucuses. I remember at my district it was wall to wall people.

[Jamaal510]

27. Shocker

I was surprised that Ron Paul placed 2nd in WA. Sounds like there are a ton of Libertarian-leaning voters there.

[mrmx9]

28. Why is Ron Paul so nice about Romney - has he been promised something by Mittens?

Despite the fact that you would expect Ron Paul to be most critical of Romney (e.g. not a staunch Conservative, flip flops, is the candidate of the military industrial complex, supports bailouts for Wall Street) Paul never criticises Mittens at all. Yes Paul is always criticising Santorum - particularly helping Mitt in the last debate.

I assume its maybe just that Ron Paul likes Mittens personally - and what ever you say about Paul and his views he seems a principled man who believes what he says.

But is there something more in this? I cannot see Romney in a million years making Paul his running mate - but given that Paul seems to motivate younger voters and independents it would be a masterstroke potentially. Paul being everything that Mittens is not?

[Dokkie]

30. Maybe he resigned to the fact

that the 30 or so percent that support Romney cant be taken away. With few resources, why waste your energy on a losing battle? Also notice that he rarely attacks Obama during the debates. Maybe he has a secret deal with Obama too?

Btw search youtube for radio attack he made against Romney which I heard personally in Omaha(sometimes, Iowa ads run in Omaha stations because of our close proximity to Iowa)

[HughBeaumont]

33. Makes sense. Economically, he's pretty much on the same page.

They're both super pro-corporate, despite what PaulBots try and tell you, and super anti-social program of any kind.

Socially . . . well, that too.

[bayareaboy]

29. Remenber Washington is out here in the West ... ...

Most western states have lots more LDS folks than the rest of the country.

[ghjtydger]

31. Spam deleted by NRaleighLiberal (MIR Team)