UT/TT Poll: Abbott Holds 11-Point Lead Over Davis

[DonViejo]

Source: The Texas Tribune

After what are shaping up to be easy primary wins in March for the leading gubernatorial candidates, Republican Greg Abbott starts the general election race for governor with an 11-point lead over Democrat Wendy Davis, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.

Meanwhile, several statewide races on the Republican primary ballot — for lieutenant governor, attorney general and comptroller — appear headed for May runoffs. None of the leaders in those races looks close to the 50 percent support they would need to win next month's primary outright.

In the governor’s race, Abbott would beat Davis 47 percent to 36 percent in a general election held today, with 17 percent of registered voters saying they have not made up their minds about which candidate to support, according to the poll.

“We’ve been talking since the beginning of this race about whether anything would be different, and we’re not seeing anything that’s different,” said Jim Henson, co-director of the poll and head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. “There was some talk about how Davis had done better in our last poll, and that was partially an artifact of her rise in the fall, and we’re seeing something of a reassertion of the normal pattern.”

Read more: http://www.texastribune.org/2014/02/24/uttt-poll-abbott-holds-11-point-lead-over-davis/

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[geek tragedy]

1. yeah, this is why all the talk about Texas being a purple state or in play for 2016 is absurd

Texas will take another generation before it's anything but a crazy, rightwing bible-thumping, gun-humping state.

Abbott is going around with Ted Nugent, and it's probably only helping him. Abbott is a far right lunatic and giftless hack, and he's leading a talented centrist Democrat by double digits.

Same state that gave Rick Perry three huge mandates.

[lostincalifornia]

3. and if he is going around with nugent, that tells me abbott is also a racist prick, which does not

say very much for Texas

[geek tragedy]

4. Ted Nugent says what the typical Texas Republican thinks. Bush was enlightened by

their standards.

[lostincalifornia]

5. What happened to Texas since Ann Richards is beyond me. I am starting to have very little sympathy

for states that continue to vote these extremists in, and then wonder why they don't have adequate healthcare and other services

[iandhr]

7. They are worried enough to starts spending money in Texas attacking Wendy.

But your right Texas is not in play in 2016. I think they are focused on 2020

[Doctor_J]

38. Yeah, that is ridiculous

I am not sure why some keep insisting this is true. Wishful thinking is OK, I guess, but confronting reality is more helpful.

This also bodes poorly for this alleged upcoming majority we're going to have just because the country is becoming less white. The huge Hispanic population in TX isn't doing a fucking thing for us.

[Paladin]

39. Sorry the Hispanic population of Texas isn't doing enough for you. I'll pass that along. (nt)

[Doctor_J]

40. Yeah, like that's anything LIKE what I said

The starry-eyed optimists keep insisting that the influx of immigrants and people of color guarantees a Dem majority before the decade is out. Texas proves that this is false.

And deliberately misinterpreting my post doesn't help either.

[lostincalifornia]

2. I am not surprised. Texas has become one of the most backward states in the union

[gopiscrap]

6. Shit

[DFW]

8. A friend who knows more about elections than I (or anyone here) ever will still thinks Wendy can win

I hope he's right. I will contribute whatever I can to make it come true, and my friend's organization will do whatever it can to help. We may still lose, but whining about how we Texans are all Neanderthals doesn't seem to be a better strategy.

[groundloop]

11. Of course you're correct... but this is the internet and we come here to whine

[DFW]

23. LOL!!

Howard's been wrong before, but he's been right an awful lot, too. As a Texan, I have to hope he's right this time.

[freshwest]

37. Very encouraging words, thanks, DFW! n/t

[rtracey]

9. Texas - Blue - Not going to happen

Texas is not going blue, and sorry, but Wendy Davis, although a forward thinking woman who came to fame this year will not become governor. If you think a large population of Latino voters are going to put Texas Blue....no, and the proof was in this years San Diego mayor race, where the Latino vote was dismal.

[DonViejo]

14. You're comparing Latino voter turn-out in San Diego, CALIFORNIA(!)...

with the Latino vote in Texas!?

[rtracey]

20. yes i am

Yes I am.. I believe the "Texas will be Blue" sentiment is on the belief system that Latino voters are going to come out in droves, the same as they believed this in the San Diego Mayor race, and it is not so. I believe (IMO)...but I could be wrong, I'm not an expert, but several experts did say Latino voters tend to shy away from local contests....we shall see....

[DFW]

25. You believe wrong

In Texas, we are not sitting around and hoping mis amigos Jesús y María are going to come riding in on white horses to save our sorry asses. Yes, they are our allies, but we are holding fundraisers and strategy sessions in lily white and upscale Highland Park in Dallas, too. Latinos aren't the only ones who suffer under Republican rule. White and black people get poisoned by fracking-contaminated water, too. People in surrounding areas fake their residences in order to get their kinds into Highland Park High because the public schools in surrounding areas are sometimes so sparsely funded, Sparta (the original) might seem upscale to them.

We have had a whack job in there for 12 years, and the prospect of another, worse one for the next four years is less appealing to white Texans than the radical right (not a true conservative among them, so I refuse to use the term) might think. Keep Abbott campaigning with Ted Nugent and thinking it's unimportant enough to not regret it publicly, and it will start to have an effect. We have some time, yet. We'll use it.

[rtracey]

27. and

and here's hoping all will work out for the Democrats in Texas.

[DFW]

31. That's the spirit

Like MLK said, I might not get there with you....

On the other hand, like RFK said.....why not?

[Paladin]

10. Thanks for the encouragement, DU. We TX Democrats really appreciate it.

Sarcasm alert, for those of you in need of it.

[Ezlivin]

16. No kidding

Tonight we're having another Battleground Texas meeting. We're right in the reddest of red areas, yet there is still support for Wendy Davis.

Texas was the first Southern state to ratify the Nineteenth Amendment and the ninth in the nation, by the way.

[Dopers_Greed]

33. Another Texas Dem here

I am voting for Wendy Davis, but I don't see her winning...at all.

Texas is a hardcore red state. I live in a fairly urban part of the state, and still...a vast majority of people I know would vote for anyone, so long as there is an R next to their name.

Even among people my age (mid-twenties), everyone either doesn't vote or is a libertarian.

[Paladin]

34. Look how well Obama did in most of the big urban areas of the state.

Not just Austin, but Dallas, Houston, San Antonio. Even if Davis doesn't win, her candidacy will further energize political sentiment against the state's Republican establishment. I have plenty of right-wing acquaintances, too, and they're apprehensive as hell about these upcoming elections. I think they have good reason for feeling that way.

[freshwest]

36. Native here, but live far away. I remember a much better TX and hope it will return. Go fo it! n/t

[Nanjing to Seoul]

12. I support her, but I still don't see Texas flipping yet. There isn't enough pain in Texas

to cause a voter revolt against the swine Republican Crime Family that runs the state.

[onehandle]

13. And the GOPNRA's war on women continues... nt

[TRoN33]

15. Even with Ted Nugent

campaign for Abbott, he's leading over Wendy Davis?!? Lord, what is the matter with Texans? Abbott as a governor will be the worst thing happened for Texans, ever. Good luck.

[bigdarryl]

17. Its part the democrats fault for not going after those young latino voters and African Americans

They should be having a large voter registration drive to get voters registered and I'm not seeing that with the National Democratic party I think there going to abandon Davis just like they did in NJ by thinking it's a lost cause by looking at the polling.There needs to be serious new leadership in the DNC.Where is Howard Dean when you need him

[geek tragedy]

24. the DNC doesn't have limitless resources.

Instead of "the DNC should stop ignoring Texas" the real issue is "from what resources should the DNC take resources in order to spend in Texas?"

Money spent in Texas can't be spent somewhere else.

[okaawhatever]

43. There is a huge voter drive in Texas. Why do you think they've passed all the voter suppression

legislation? Battleground Texas, among others, is doing a good job of registering voters.

[LanternWaste]

42. These polls were done just prior to Nugent's ride-a-long.

These polls were done just prior to Nugent's ride-a-long.

[Cryptoad]

18. Ummmmm ,,,,,

the same polling firm had Romney ahead by 8 pts and surging the weekend before the Election last Nov........ looks like a dead heat!

[geek tragedy]

28. yougov was actually very good in 2012

compare their state polling with the actual results:

http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/2012%20Election%20results%20table%20YouGovLV%20ONLY.pdf

[Iliyah]

19. Pro Tea Bagger polling

Go Wendy!

[bigdarryl]

21. Someone in the comment section said this is a internet poll

I personally would rather see where PPP has the race

[okaawhatever]

44. Exactly. An internet poll can be worthless. PPP has not polled since early Nov. They had Abbott

plus 15 then. That showed a big jump in his support because a September poll showed Abbott 29 Davis 21. There are still too many people undecided, I wouldn't give up yet.

[mc51tc]

22. I early voted in a "burb city" north of Dallas last week

My area has always been very red. However, I voted about 5:00p.m. last week (after having to show an ID first of course). They asked me if I wanted a Dem or Rep ballot. Of course, I said Dem. with pride.

While I was voting, many other voters came to cast ballots behind me. All asked for Dem ballots to my surprise without one Rep. ballot being requested. I said wow, Wendy Davis is getting the Dem vote out early at least in my northern Dallas suburb.

We cannot give up this early in the game.

[okaawhatever]

45. Exactly, especially with so many undecided voters. PPP had Abbott up by 15 in early November so

by that she has closed the lead. With 17% in that internet poll still undecided, there's still time.

[ctsnowman]

26. I hope

this is more Romney landslide BS polling.

[DLnyc]

29. Provided suppression of minority, women and youth votes works as normal.

[TexasTowelie]

30. I think that the race is tighter than 11 points, more in the 5 point range would be a good guess.

I believe a sign of Wendy's strength will be the total number of voters that turn out in the primary as compared to how many votes Abbott draws in the GOP primary. The Republicans should have greater aggregate totals since they have more contested races on their ballot than Democrats. If the difference is close, then hopefully will help the national party and out-of-state contributors to give to the Davis' campaign.

[yeoman6987]

35. Wendy will beat Abbott in the debates

And then she will win 100 percent. Wendy seems to be a great debater.

[Gothmog]

32. Texas will turn blue eventually

I am the first to admit that Wendy has a tough election coming up. If the electorate is like the sample in the poll, she will lose. However, I believe that the Texas electorate is changing which may make it difficult to poll. In addition, Greg is proving to be a bad campaigner. Perry/Goodhair has many many flaws but he ran smart and well coordinated compaigns. Greg made a big mistake with Nugent and it will be interesting to see if he continues to do his best to alienate women and Hispanic voters.

I was at my county party headquarters training election judges for the upcoming primaries. I had ten newbies who wanted to know more about election law that will hopefully supplement the required class being taught by the election office. The newbies were excited about working at the primary. I had not seen this level of excitement in Texas.

In addition, Battleground Texas had 8 to 10 volunteers phone banking for Wendy Davis at the headquarters and the party had block walkers out hitting people who voted in 2008 and 2012 but who did not vote in 2010. The party has a better organization and focus compared to past years. The prior chairman (Boyd Ritchie) was an idiot who spend a great deal of money trying to win east Texas instead of working areas were there are actual Democratic voters.

Finally, I actually think that Leticia van de Putte may have a better chance than Wendy. The GOP Lt. Governor nominee is likely to be an idiot named Dan Patrick who is very extreme. In Texas the Lt. Governor is actually more powerful than the governor.

The polling in the OP does not surprise me but I want to see what happens when the electorate is fully engaged.

[LanternWaste]

41. We'll see a bump in the post-Nugent polls.

We'll see a bump in the post-Nugent polls.

[TexasTowelie]

46. Agreed.

Most of the press reports fail to mention that this poll was taken prior to the Abbott/Nugent flap.