Russia Opens 3rd Front With a New Offensive, Ukrainian and Western Officials Say

[DonViejo]

Source: New York Times

Tanks, artillery and infantry have crossed from Russia into an unbreached part of eastern Ukraine in recent days, attacking Ukrainian forces and causing panic and wholesale retreat not only in the small border town of Novoazovsk but a wide swath of territory, in what Ukrainian and Western military officials are calling a stealth invasion.

The attacks outside Novoazovsk and in an area to the north essentially have opened a new, third front in the war in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists, along with the fighting outside the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/28/world/europe/ukraine-russia-novoazovsk-crimea.html?emc=edit_na_20140827

[TwilightGardener]

1. His rebellion, propped up by murderous drunks, has largely failed--it certainly didn't

inspire the locals much. So now he has to invade outright. Time to send Russian troops home in coffins, Ukraine.

[Renew Deal]

2. There are no "pro-russian seperatists."

There are Ukranians and an invading Russian Army.

[jeff47]

3. I'm sure someone will be along shortly

with a story from RT saying it's all a NATO plot.

[ColesCountyDem]

10. Isn't that the truth?

There is a COMPLETE 'disconnect' among some here on this situation: people who would fight to the death any attempt by the Cliven Bundy's of this world to secede from the US all cry alligator tears for the pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

12. And people who act upset about oppression suddenly feel dreamy-eyed about Putin and Assad. nt

[ColesCountyDem]

25. It boggles the mind. n/t

[bemildred]

4. Battle for key southeast coast heats up in Ukraine

MARIUPOL, Ukraine (AP) -- The battle for Ukraine's strategic coastline heated up Wednesday as a local mayor reported that pro-Russian rebel forces entered a key town in southeast Ukraine after three days of heavy shelling.

Novoazovsk, a resort town of 40,000 on the Sea of Azov, lies in a strategically significant location - on the road linking Russia to the Ukrainian port of Mariupol and onto Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula Russia annexed. Wednesday's incursion, reported by the town's mayor, was the first time in the four-month-long conflict between the government in Kiev and separatists in the east that fighting has reached as far south as the seacoast. It suggests that the rebels - who Ukraine, NATO and Western nations all say are being supported by Russia - have been both emboldened and reinforced.

The new southeastern front also raised fears the separatists are seeking to create a land link between Russia and Crimea. If successful, it could give them or Russia control over the entire Sea of Azov and the gas and mineral riches that energy experts believe it contains. Ukraine already lost roughly half its coastline, several major ports and significant Black Sea mineral rights in March when Russia annexed Crimea.

Oleg Sidorkin, the mayor of Novoazovsk, told The Associated Press by telephone that the rebels had entered the town and he had seen dozens of tanks and armored vehicles roll in.

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_UKRAINE_FIGHT_FOR_SOUTHEAST?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-08-27-12-54-05

[The Magistrate]

11. A Strike For The Coast, Sir, Really Gives The Game Away

Though I am sure some will press on in the endeavor, this makes it impossible to pretend what is going on is not an attempt by Russia to seize control of resources.

[bemildred]

13. Seems like the obvious thing, Sir.

Very Putin-like too I would say. I'm still thinking about it, between the Kiev government's wish to widen the war and Putin's wish to be in it but not in it, exactly what is going on is murky. But it seems like what Putin would do, to strike out for Crimea along the coast there. Right during the peace talks too.

[The Magistrate]

15. Just A Guess, Sir

But I suspect we are agreed on the primacy of Crimea as Russia's chief objective in this. This action could represent a desire to get it nailed down tight before the fighting grinds to a halt in the areas to the north where there actually was at least some support for secession and annexation. It has long seemed to me that the Russian support for the secessionists was intended not so much to actually succeed as it was to create a bargaining chip, something that could leave people saying, once it is all over, 'well, at least he didn't get more than the Crimea' and feel genuinely relieved when they did say it, too.

Certainly communication to Crimea would be more secure and solid with a land link, and if that is annexed as well, or even simply held by a petty client, a good deal of profit becomes possible.

A kicker in the pack is legal action for compensation to Ukraine for the value of assets lost when Crimea was seized. Nothing in that process amounted, shall we say, to a legal transfer of title. The amounts could be pretty large....

[bemildred]

17. It works several ways, as a bargaining chip, to keep control of,

to pressure Kiev & the "West", it all depends. But it's a bit aggressive, perhaps over-confident.

I generally agree with your assessment. I think Putin likes to keep his options open and likely has several possibilities in mind.

I know they are working on a bridge, so the coast road may not be the most important thing. So resources is probably part of it. And pressuring Kiev. Winter is coming.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

34. Are you talking about mineral resources, or is something else at stake?

Just curious.

[The Magistrate]

36. Oil And Gas, Sir

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2011/3052/pdf/fs2011-3052.pdf

Not huge, mind, but likely worth having, and more to the point, perhaps, worth denying to another.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

39. Ah, so taking the coast gives him undisputed access to whatever's in the Azov. Got it. n/t

[Monk06]

47. Russia is turning the Ukraine into a landlocked eastern province of Poland. Russia will no longer

trust the Ukraine/Nato with access to the Black Sea. The NATO post soviet gambit has failed. Not surprising since it was based on an alliance with the drunken gangster president Boris "twist and shout" Yeltzin, Putin's former boss btw.

The US disobeyed a fundamental rule of Sun Su's Art of War. Never humiliate the enemy. A humiliated enemy is a dangerous enemy.

In it's entire history the US has never defeated an enemy. It has merely succeeded in creating a new one that it is forced to face every twenty years on average.

[IronGate]

61. We didn't defeat the Japanese, Italy or the Germans in WWll?

I think those nations would take issue with your statement.

[Monk06]

63. My statement was followed by caveat. Maybe you didn't notice. Both Japan and Germany

are major industrial competitors to the US except arguably the international arms trade. Both countries have chafed under the yoke of post war US military and economic hegemony.

Now Japan is attempting to chart an independent course with closer ties to China and the rest of Asia. Germany is doing the same in Europe with respect to it's relations with Russia.

Italy is not a major player in the world today and actually welcomed the defeat of Mussolini.

My argument is that the US is losing it's grip on world affairs as their former 'defeated' enemies move away from the heavy handed and self serving economic policies successive US governments have followed since Bretton Woods.

The fact that the US was caught red handed bugging Merkel's phone demonstrates that the US treats its friends and enemies with equal contempt and disregard.

[raven mad]

54. Thank you, sir, for making clear what my brain couldn't quite wrap around.

I said the same this to Mr. raven mad - but couldn't quite phrase it correctly.

I'll save your post to show him in the morning.

Clarity is all.

[bemildred]

5. Ukraine Says Russian Forces Lead Major New Offensive in East

NOVOAZOVSK, Ukraine — Tanks, artillery and infantry have crossed from Russia into an unbreached part of eastern Ukraine in recent days, attacking Ukrainian forces and causing panic and wholesale retreat not only in this small border town but a wide swath of territory, in what Ukrainian and Western military officials are calling a stealth invasion.

The attacks outside this city and in an area to the north essentially have opened a new, third front in the war in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists, along with the fighting outside the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.

---

Exhausted, filthy and dismayed, Ukrainian soldiers staggering out of Novoazovsk for safer territory said Tuesday that the forces coming from Russia had treated them like cannon fodder. As they spoke, tank shells whistled in from the east and exploded nearby.

Some of the retreating Ukrainian soldiers appeared unwilling to fight. The commander of their unit, part of the 9th Brigade from Vinnytsia, in western Ukraine, barked at the men to turn around, to no effect. "All right," the commander said. "Anybody who refuses to fight, sit apart from the others." Eleven men did, while the others returned to the city.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101951821

[ballyhoo]

19. Straight out of Sun Tzu: "Go where the

enemy least expects you." If they open that route, a new supply line emerges. I'll have to call The Turk and see if he's been there. I have heard something about that place, though. Will DD it a little.

[bemildred]

20. It is where I would expect them, it's the obvious place to go. nt

[ballyhoo]

21. Yes. The Separatists, but Ukrainians would not

have expected it because of their thought that Russia was satisfied with Crimea for now. Were the Ukrainians expecting it, a larger detachment would be there IF any of this is really happening and not more stories.

[bemildred]

22. I doubt they (the Ukrainians) have the spare troops.

If they do, then they are fools not to have them there. Then again, that might be the case. They might have been concentrating on things up North around Donetsk and Luhansk.

Putin might have been satisfied with Crimea at one time, that doesn't mean he will stay that way. I think he means to pressure Kiev, and if he gets to keep control of some more territory for a while, that's fine too. We might be getting a replay of Abkhazia and Ossetia.

[ballyhoo]

26. He gets more territory and then gives it back in exchange

for something else but the prize is off the table? Yes, that might be it. But if Putin is ready for an all-out invasion, he won't be giving up a southern supply line. Might be time for Petro to go.

[joshcryer]

44. Ukraine didn't expect a full scale invasion.

Which is clearly what they're experiencing.

[ballyhoo]

51. I'll need more substantiation before I'll believe

that, but if that is what is happening then what comes next could be the beginning of the end, or the end of the beginning--either of which is okay with me. Since Reagan and increasing steadily with every president since, life has grown more and more severe and has reached a point that many even most of us are not living any more, simply going through the motions. I could say more but it would be juried. By now, joshcryer, if you are are a sentient being, you have some idea going forward what life will be like under our existing government no matter who wins the next two elections. We are headed for neo-serfdom and there's really nothing anyone can do about it. I hope whatever happens in Ukraine is best for the majority of the Ukrainians. That's all I can say. Good luck to you.

[joshcryer]

53. Given the horrors of the Eastern Bloc, that is unlikely.

Ukraine, if it loses, becomes yet another client state of Russia, and Russia is on the decline, so that will not bode well for its peoples at all.

The United States is the worlds largest global dominate superpower and economy. It's not going anywhere. In fact, self-criticism of the United States is one reason it is so dominant. We say one thing (we're bad, horrible influences) while doing another (actually being a powerful influence which may or may not be bad). It allows us to continue the hegemony because one hand doesn't know what the other is doing, or at least, fails to acknowledge it.

Within the next few decades the United States will be a fully automated and self-sufficient economy. At that point all states that the United States does business with will be shit out of luck. It won't help matters that the United States will have drained much of the other countries' resources in the intrim.

The only hope is that total nuclear war doesn't break out, but, even then, the United States is basically immune from a ballistic missile attack. So, again, the United States wins. For better or worse. I'm still not sure where I stand on that. I think I'd rather retire on Mars than be around for the coming climate/economic disaster that the planet will face (leading generally to total domination by western cultural influence; that's right, gays will be marrying in Russia in 20-30 years tops, Putin's efforts are futile).

[bemildred]

6. Merkel asks Putin to explain reports of Russian troops in Ukraine

BERLIN, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Germany's Angela Merkel told President Vladimir Putin by phone on Wednesday that reports of a new Russian military incursion into Ukrainian territory had to be cleared up, a spokesman for the chancellor said in a statement.

"The latest reports of the presence of Russian soldiers on Ukrainian territory must be explained," said Merkel's spokesman Steffen Seibert. "She emphasised Russia's major responsibility for de-escalation and watching over its own frontiers."

Kiev accused Russia of launching a new military incursion over its eastern border on Wednesday. Russia's defence ministry made no immediate comment, but Moscow denies sending weapons and soldiers to help pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine. (Reporting by Stephen Brown)

http://www.trust.org/item/20140827173639-xicxj/

[bemildred]

7. Pro-Russian rebels enter key Ukrainian town close to Crimea

NOVOAZOVSK, Ukraine -- Pro-Russian rebel forces entered a key town in southeastern Ukraine on Wednesday after three days of heavy shelling, the town's mayor said, capturing new territory far from most of their battles with government troops.

The town of Novoazovsk lies in a strategically significant location -- on the Azov Sea and on the road linking Russia to the Russian-annexed Crimean Peninsula. It was the first time in the four-month-long conflict that fighting has reached as far south as the seacoast and suggests that the rebels, who Ukraine says are being supported by Russia, are emboldened and reinforced.

The new southeastern front has raised fears the separatists are seeking to create a land link between Russia and Crimea. If so, that could also give the rebels or Russia control over the entire Azov Sea and any oil or mineral riches it contains.

In a brief phone call Wednesday, mayor Oleg Sidorkin told The Associated Press that rebels had penetrated into the town. There were no immediate details on the size of the rebel force.

http://www.mercurynews.com/nation-world/ci_26416126/pro-russian-rebels-enter-key-ukrainian-town-close

[bemildred]

8. 'Not Russia': Canadians at NATO offer cheeky map to Russian soldiers

Russian soldiers 'accidentally' crossed into Ukraine, a Russian military spokesman told Reuters, and the Canadian Joint Delegation to NATO offered to help them Wednesday by tweeting a cheeky map of Eastern Europe. As of 1 p.m. ET, the tweet had been retweeted by other users more than 2,000 times.

[bemildred]

9. Russia Not Interested in Ukraine Falling Into Pieces - Lavrov

SELIGER (Tver Region), August 27 (RIA Novosti) — Russia is not interested in Ukrainian government falling into pieces, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Wednesday.

"We are not interested that a government falls into pieces. What is happening right now in Ukraine, as the International Red Cross has witnessed, is a domestic armed conflict, and that makes us follow those approaches that are encompassed in international law: a ceasefire and beginning of negotiations," Lavrov said.

"We want Russians in Ukraine together with Ukrainians, together with Hungarians, together with Romanians to live like they are used to live. We want them to be respected, and their rights to be respected," he added.

Russian Foreign Minister also stated he saw no need for establishing a special international tribunal to hear war crimes in Ukraine, similar to those established for Rwanda or former Yugoslavia.

http://en.ria.ru/politics/20140827/192398699/Russia-Not-Interested-in-Ukraine-Falling-Into-Pieces---Lavrov.html

[reorg]

14. The NYT is a little late to notice

that the self defense forces have moved to the southern coast in order to take Mariupol where many deposed local officials have fled. It had been reported a few days ago already by their supporters.

OFFICIAL DPR BRIEFING, AS OF AUGUST 25, 2014

In the course of the offensive operation, the militia forces have completely destroyed the government military base in Sedovo, and routed all the enemy checkpoints around Sedovo and Novoazovsk. There's an ongoing sweep of these two cities for remaining Junta forces. Taking control of Novoazovsk will open a direct road to Mariupol for the DPR army forces, and we plan to take this city in the near future.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com.br/

Map of Operations, August 10-25, 2014


http://slavyangrad.org/2014/08/26/novorossiya-map-of-hostilities-august-10-25-2014/

[Reter]

16. Results of your Jury Service

On Wed Aug 27, 2014, 12:19 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

The NYT is a little late to notice
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=881411

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

links to a hate site, see Skinner's comment at link

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12596602

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Wed Aug 27, 2014, 12:26 PM, and the Jury voted 3-4 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #2 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: I'm sorry, I don't see the problem. Doesn't fit the mainstream opinion around here, is that it?
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: What did he say that was offensive? I can't find a thing. Alerter seems to be a trouble maker.
Juror #6 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given

Thank you very much for participating in our Jury system, and we hope you will be able to participate again in the future.

[reorg]

24. thanks for posting

Last edited Wed Aug 27, 2014, 04:52 PM - Edit history (1)

and thanks to the jury for being reasonable.

As long as this topic is being discussed, I don't see why we shouldn't look for well-informed sources even if they don't readily tune in with the hatred of Russia and their president that seems so prevalent here.

[LanternWaste]

28. More accurately, disdain and mistrust for an expansionist state rather than hate.

" the hatred of Russia and their president that seems so prevalent here..."

More accurately, disdain and mistrust for an expansionist state rather than hate.

[IronGate]

29. There's no hate for Russia and Putin,

there's a lot of contempt for Putin for his lying and expansionist agenda and contempt for those that defend him and his lackeys in the Ukraine.

I spent a year in Russia on an exchange program and the country is beautiful, the people are warm and generous and for the most part, admire Americans, it's the govt that has screwed the country up.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

40. The problem here isn't a blind hatred of Putin or Russia

Rather, it's a situation where the leader of one country had reportedly denied the historical existence of his neighboring country, then when that neighboring country has just gone through a period of internal turmoil and is at it's very weakest, that leader seizes and annexes a portion of the neighboring country, then helps fuel a proxy war in another part of the country much to his advantage, and now stands ready to again launch a direct invasion of the country to possibly annex more of its territory.

That's the problem here. It's quite rational.

[Cha]

56. Thank you for that thoughtful explanation to those who push RT to try and distract from reality.

[muriel_volestrangler]

23. "I think any DUer would not want to be associated with such filth" - Skinner

but that site doesn't bother you, obviously.

[reorg]

31. Of course would nobody want to be associated with such filth

The blog "vineyardseeker" is open to comments and it is not necessary to register with your real name. These comments remain unmoderated, and just like on every other unmoderated site you'll inevitably find the occasional filthy and outrageous troll posts in the comment section.

The poster "magistrate" has found some of these troll posts and presented them here as representative for the "vineyardseeker". I don't agree with that assessment. So far I haven't seen any original blog entries that would remotely justify the characterization "filthy hate site".

Of course I wouldn't want to be "associated" with these racist troll comments. Nor would anybody else who takes information from this site, such as the Counterpunch author who recently found a video transcript there (I posted it in Good Reads). We don't feel "associated" with these comments because we may never even read anonymous comments on blog sites, or because we would naturally dismiss them as disgusting, hateful filth. Just like the blog author himself:

Personal announcement: dealing with Nazis and other racist trolls
With the recent sharp rise of readers of this blog (well over 1'000'000 visits in total and 10'000+ visitors per day) a equally sharp rise of Nazi and other racist troll clearly happened. My policy in the past has been to either crush their sophomoric and ignorant views by posting rebuttals, but now I simply do not have the time to play Kindergarten cop with these obsessive-compulsive Jew haters. And yet, I cannot simply censor their posts because that would contradict the core value of my blog - complete freedom of thought. This, of course, puts me in front of a dilemma: do I let these cretins pollute my blog, or do I give up on my ideal of freedom of though and speech? I wish I had a "virtual sandbox" were I could send these folks and let them play together, talking about Jew-this, Jew-that, Hitler-this, Hitler-that, but I don't have that. So what I propose to do here is to post a short appeal to them and to the rest of you, mentally sane and educated commentators, in the hope that this will help. Let's begin with the tedious part: ...

(Link available on request)

[geek tragedy]

38. You are associated with such filth, having promoted that filthy fascist hate site repeatedly here

That filth includes the owner/proprietor of that Nazi hate site, the Saker himself, who has this to say about Jews:

I am fully aware of the role which Jews played in the horrors of the 20th century, I am aware that they declared war on Russia first, and on Germany after that (both times the order came from organized American Jewry and Jewish banks), I loathe both Rabbinical Judaism and Zionism because both are based on self-worship and racism. I don't need lectures on all the bad things Jews have done or are still doing. Believe me, I have read more anti-Jewish books than most people here (if only because I read them all not only English, but also in Russian which has at least 10 times as many anti-Jewish books as there are in English).

...

I will go as far as saying that Rabbinical Judaism is, in my sincerely held conclusion, Satanic at its core and at least as evil as Wahabi Islam.

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/05/ukrainian-news-two-phone-call-leaks.html

That is language taken directly from an original post, by the vile fascist bigot madman who runs that site. He reflects the views of his barbaric readers.

You were able to dig up his supposed criticism of Nazis, but for you to claim you saw him making no anti-Jewish statements can be charitably described as willful blindness and less charitably as an attempt to mislead this site's readership.

It is not surprising to see supporters of the fascist regime in Moscow also defending and promoting fascist bigots.

Anyone who defends that site can go sit between David Irving and Vladimir Zhironovsky.

Next time you link to that site, you openly declare yourself to be of the same mindset.

[Tommy_Carcetti]

41. It's actual "Vineyardsaker", and yes, the language The Magistrate cited to......

.....can be found in the blog post proper, not just the comment section.

There's a curious tendency of those on the rabidly pro-Russian side to refer to anyone they don't like or find fault with as being "fascist" or "neo-Nazi", regardless of whether or not the label actual fits the subject. Furthermore, if one of their own seems to display actual fascist or neo-Nazi tendencies himself (for example, Pavel Gubarev or Aleksandr Dugin), they'll conveniently forget those particular facts while still demonizing the other side as fascist neo-Nazis.

[joshcryer]

45. Highly misleading, those quotes are the blogger.

Not random commentators.

[reorg]

48. Nope

but I guess it's impossible to find out now, since some of the most trustworthy Messrs on this board have determined that going to that site or, god beware, linking to it, makes you an associate and promoter of vile hatred and filth?

I'm going to make a list of those posters who linked and thus promoted this site, and I shall never talk to them again.

[joshcryer]

49. Saying a hate site has "well-informed sources" is pretty low.

I don't know why you are even doubling down, you were wrong to link them. Go find another source to confirm your biases.

[IronGate]

62. Well, considering you linked to that site,

I guess you'll be putting yourself on ignore.

[Blue_Tires]

18. Can't wait to see Glenn Greenwald call this a non-story

unworthy of his attention; equating it to the proverbial "Cat stuck up in a tree in Peoria"

[bemildred]

27. After Re-Establishing Supply Lines, Ukrainian Separatists Launch Counteroffensive

As Russian leaders prepare to meet with Ukrainian and EU leaders in Minsk on Aug. 26 to discuss the ongoing situation in Ukraine, Moscow is quietly shaping the battlefield in eastern Ukraine for maximum leverage in future negotiations. Ukrainian forces have made considerable progress since their July 4 offensive began, but it is becoming increasingly apparent that Russia has mobilized its intelligence and military assets in a significant effort to shift the fighting back in its favor, bolstering the separatists and seizing the initiative in much of the battlefield.

Over the weekend, pro-Russian separatists conducted counteroffensives in several areas of eastern Ukraine as well as in some areas that, until Aug. 23, had been outside the scope of major military operations. The most notable of these moves have taken place near the main population centers of Donetsk and Luhansk, but movements from across the Russian border into southeastern Ukraine near the Sea of Azov threaten to open up new fronts and tie down Ukrainian military resources.

Near Donetsk, Ukrainian volunteer battalions backed by a limited number of regular military units continued to fight for control of Ilovaisk, from where the Ukrainian offensive would have been able to push farther north to encircle Donetsk. However, ongoing separatist counterattacks in this location, which have included the use of armor and heavy artillery, combined with a lack of reinforcements for pro-Kiev forces, have bogged down this attempt. At the same time, a separatist offensive to the southeast from Mospyne materialized Aug. 24 and managed to encircle Ukrainian forces in Ilovaisk and near Amvrosiivka. Some support for this counteroffensive (at the very least, supplies) reportedly came directly from Russian territory.

The Ukrainian military has suffered significant losses over the last few months since separatist forces encircled the spearhead of its offensive near the Russian border. The overwhelming firepower delivered by Russian rocket and tube artillery in this border region has led to significant attrition. That the Ukrainian military has been forced to stretch its forces to conduct its offensive has also continued to leave parts of it open to being surrounded and cut off. At this point, over 2,000 Ukrainian forces are believed to be located inside the separatist envelopment. Cut off from supplies and reinforcements, these forces may have to fight their way out on their own if Ukraine is unable to free up the necessary resources to break the encirclement.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2014/08/27/after-re-establishing-supply-lines-ukrainian-separatists-launch-counteroffensive/

[The Magistrate]

32. Interesting Report, Sir

The key element does seem to be overt Russian support on a large scale.

[Benton D Struckcheon]

35. A couple of weeks ago they destroyed some border checkpoints,

the Russians did, via shelling from their side. (Why this was never brought up at the Security Council I'll never know.) I remember having the thought at that time that it looked like Putin might be setting up to widen this thing out and get supplies to his people in Donetsk. Looks like that was indeed the case.

[bemildred]

37. I hadn't been watching it much.

I've been watching the Gaza War. So I don't claim to have forseen it. In fact last time I was thinking about Ukraine, in June maybe, I was still hoping they would work something out. But as things ground along this Summer, I started expecting it to keep grinding along. Neither side being willing to compromise enough to make a deal yet. So in retrospect, it makes sense to me now that Putin would up the ante now.

But props to you, I expect you are right, that would be how it started. I've been seeing stories for a few days now, but didn't pay much attention until today.

I'm still waiting to see what he does, for him to show his intentions a little more.

[newthinking]

42. It appears it may be a full blown "Proxy war" at this point, just like the "old" cold wars

Disclaimer:

First off. If somebody has a problem with my opinion and analysis. (sorry but) "Tough shit". I am a liberal and proud of it and it is an intellectual tradition to attempt to understand all components and sides of a conflict like this. I have researched enough to feel that I am pretty much as qualified to "opine" on this as any other amature opinion'r' on this site.

OK... on to my analysis of current events.....

From everything I have read and dismissing the very prolific false and poor reporting and stories; Both Russia and the West have been encouraging "unofficial" participation and various means of indirect support while claiming otherwise or pleading ignorance. Russia by tolerating civilians recruiting mercenaries; Likely providing tactical advice; The West encouraging mercenaries as well, while the US retained the appearance of not materially supporting (weapons), lots of equipment has been offered by NATO Allies, money, training, etc.

But it seems like something changed this month. Of course, like everyone else here I can't prove it, but I have been wondering for a while if Russia; since no matter how it reacts or tries to discuss it's own interests and viewpoint gets demonized, why would they not just go ahead and move more directly and do what it felt was in it's interests and concerns?

Of course it could also be that the rebels are making particularly good use of the recent victories. In the last month they overcame a number of mechanized units by using what has been described as the "Cauldron" technique (letting the UKR army advance until they have more territory than they can control effectively, then coming in behind and isolating individual battalions).
Apparently hundreds of tanks and other large equipment has been left behind.

Ukraine is having serious discipline problems in it's "normal" battalions, because there has been a fair amount of casualties and many Ukrainians don't have their heart in the fight.

It also appears as if the rebels are going directly after the battalions that are being run by the oligarch Kolomnorski and the forces he has funded because they are full of Neo-Nazi's. It probably would indeed be seen by the rebels as a victory if they put the AZOV (Wolfsangel) battalion out of business, not to mention a "morale booster" .

If anyone does not know of the AZOV battalion it is written about here:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11025137/Ukraine-crisis-the-neo-Nazi-brigade-fighting-pro-Russian-separatists.html

[bemildred]

58. I suspect the change of leadership has something to do with it too.

But one can only speculate at this point. Things changed after MH17, I would say. And they haven't been talking about it much, the Rebels.

[nilesobek]

52. This is interesting and from Forbes, an approved website I suppose.

Of course the Eastern Ukrainian rebels know the landscapes and terrain far better than their Kiev and Western Ukraine opposition. This advantage is not to be underestimated, home turf.

If the Russians are supplying this effort then the future of the current Kiev government and forces is on thin ice. I read on another website that rebels were humping ammo and heavy weapons on trails and had completed the encirclement.

[bemildred]

57. Forbes is sort of Libertarian, so not a fan of adventurism overseeas.

And not part of the state propaganda organs, but also sort of approved. In the herdlike commercial docility of the American press, they are outliers.

It seems obvious that the Rebels have Russian support. The Kiev government has been on thin ice all along, Putin appears to have decided to break the ice.

[nilesobek]

59. Yeah this doesn't look good for Kiev.

If the rebels can hump the artillery over that mountain off road and start shelling its going to be a bloodbath. Like shooting fish in a barrel. Maybe this will get them to the peace talks. I was looking at some maps of Ukraine, (thoughtfully provided by DUers), and the natural tendencies of the land favor the defenders, IMO.

I pretty much meant a site that wouldn't get immediately attacked like RT. I didn't realize they had a Libertarian bent but it is a magazine about wealth and high finance.

[bemildred]

30. Ukraine crisis: rebels seize key coastal town as they open new front near Russia

Pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine seized a key coastal town yesterday in a move which opened a dangerous new front against the Kiev government.

Separatist forces flying the flag of the rebel Donetsk People's republic entered the coastal town of Novoazovsk, depriving Ukraine of control of its southernmost section of border with Russia and putting the insurgents within striking distance of the centre of regional government in Mariupol.

The lighting advance took place in an area tens of miles from territory previously held by the rebels, suggesting that the troops originated at least in part from the Russian side of the border.

Combined with a series of other defeats and the capture of Russian soldiers inside Ukraine on Tuesday, it increased speculation that – despite official denials – Russian regular forces have now entered the war alongside the separatists.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11060054/Ukraine-crisis-rebels-seize-key-coastal-town-as-they-open-new-front-near-Russia.html

[Bosonic]

33. Ukraine crisis: T-72 tank shoots hole in Russian denial

Ukraine crisis: T-72 tank shoots hole in Russian denial

Russia has consistently denied sending tanks into Ukraine, arguing that any vehicles used by separatist forces there must have been captured from the Ukrainian army itself.

But now experts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London have told the BBC that they have identified a Russian tank in a separatist column in eastern Ukraine that they say could only have come from across the border in Russia.

Joseph Dempsey, an IISS analyst, has studied video footage reportedly taken on 26 August in Sverdlovsk, Luhansk, in eastern Ukraine. The video shows a convoy of military vehicles.

...

The mixed convoy includes at least three T-72B1 Main Battle Tanks (MBTs) but it is the appearance of a lone, more modern T-72 variant (shown below) that is of particular significance.

...

It is operated by the Russian Army in large numbers, but crucially it is not known to have been exported or operated outside of Russia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-28961080

[newthinking]

43. More "speculation" mascarading as "journalism. A single (or few) modern tanks does not prove

it was sent by Russia

Seriously.. anyone who has read up knows that there are "black market" dealers that manage to sell out (limited, but not inconsequential) inventory by greasing palms or using influence. This happens even in our own supply chains.

Someone could get very rich by managing to get a tank out of Russian Inventory and into a conflict. Which journalism without an axe (or name) to grind would include as a definite, if not more predominant explanation.

As I said in another post I would indeed not be surprised if Russia is more directly involving itself at this point. But sloppy journalism (or propaganda) is still just that.

[joshcryer]

46. Yup, they got that T-72 at the local hardware store.

[BlueCheese]

50. Putin has invaded Ukraine.

There's no other word for it. The West has to act strongly and decisively. This isn't 1939 or 1968. Aggression cannot stand.

[quadrature]

55. so Obama said he would be 'flexible' after the election...

how does that apply here?

[Iamthetruth]

60. Wait, I thought Russia

Was not a threat?