Big Oil Is About to Lose Control of the Auto Industry

[Purveyor]

by Reed Landberg
11:26 AM EDT
April 16, 2015

While the U.S. pats itself on the back for the riches flowing from fracking wells, an upheaval in clean energy is quietly loosening the oil industry's grip on the automotive industry.

Presentations by analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) this week pick away at the idea that supply alone is behind the plunge in crude prices to $50 a barrel. The presentation also shows that low-pollution cars are gaining ground, weakening the link between oil and driving.

The result: Future transport is likely to look a lot different than what the major oil companies are fueling now. Instead of biofuels such as ethanol and green diesel making the internal-combustion engine fit into a world with greenhouse gas limits, wholesale new solutions are coming fast. “Where we are is in an age of plenty,” said Michael Liebreich, BNEF's founder. “We have cheap oil, cheap gas, cheap renewables. You do have an abundance of supply in a way you haven't had for decades. We also are in an age of competition.”

Oil Demand Has Flatlined for a Decade

Source: EIA

As the presentations indicate, oil consumption has flatlined for a decade as supplies from all those fracking wells surged. Through the economic boom, the financial crisis, and the recovery now underway, demand peaked in 2004 and has fallen ever since.

Dramatic Improvements in Miles per Gallon Cut Gasoline Demand

Source: US Dept of Transportation NHTSA

Part of what explains dwindling gasoline demand is as dull as it is important: efficiency. “There was a 60 percent increase in efficiency of the U.S. auto fleet in the last 16 years,” Liebreich said. “This is a global phenomenon.” And it's one of the hidden reasons why the London-based research group doesn't expect a quick rebound for crude.

more...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-16/big-oil-is-about-to-lose-control-of-the-auto-industry

[NYC_SKP]

1. They are fighting, however, to get it back by promoting Hydrogen Fuel Cell cars and "H2 Economy"

And it's all a scam.

95% of Hydrogen gas is created by reforming Natural Gas.

That's why Chevron, Shell, BP, and ConocoPhillips are major investors in the Hydrogen Economy push.

I mean, why else?

[louis-t]

2. That's also why bush was promoting hydrogen.

Last edited Thu Apr 16, 2015, 03:47 PM - Edit history (1)

[NYC_SKP]

3. Yes, he did initiate the Hydrogen Economy programs, and corn ethanol, too.

Agribusiness loved that.

Ordinary ranchers and dairy saw their feed prices double, they weren't so happy.

Corn is huge.

http://www.imdb.com/video/screenplay/vi949027097/

[msongs]

4. and electric cars do not need OIL changes and filters, and a lot of other maintenance that makes $$

for neighborhood garages

[47of74]

6. Actually Chevy Volts do need them.

But not anywhere near as much as regular vehicles. I was told by my dealer that it wasn't nessecary to do it every 3,000 miles with my Volt. They said to go by the percentage of oil life reported by the car and have the oil changed when the percentage gets into the teens. The dealer explained that since the engine isn't always running they can't really say that after so many miles it'll need a change. So I'm down to one or at most two changes a year, if that.

[Thor_MN]

5. They are also very much in favor of war in the Middle East.

It's no coincidence, IMO, that the RWNs are beating the war drums.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

7. How does an increase from 24.5 mpg in 2001 to

31.6 mpg in 2014 for the total vehicle fleet become "a 60 percent increase in efficiency of the U.S. auto fleet in the last 16 years”? Per gallon mileage was about the same in 1998 as in 2001, but 2001 and 2014 are the years highlighted in the chart.

The chart is looking at the total vehicle fleet, not at the cars built in those model years.