Jon Chait wrote an optimistic take on climate change. Is it justified? (David Roberts)

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http://www.vox.com/2015/9/13/9313727/chait-climate-optimism

. . .

Activist Tim DeChristopher's rant about Chait's piece is completely over-the-top and paints an absurd caricature of Chait, but he's justifiably angry about this. As he says, it's not just "environmentalists" now — the climate justice movement is far broader than that and includes many other constituencies. And they did not sink into despair when the cap-and-trade bill (which they hated) died, they organized. Chait may not like the fact that the movement rallied around Keystone XL, but rally it did. And it's beyond absurd that Chait mentions the closing of hundreds of coal plants in the US without mentioning the grassroots Beyond Coal movement which was so crucially instrumental in bringing it about.

Chait has always had a beef with the left activists in general and climate activists specifically. I personally think it's gotten a bit personal with him and distorted his otherwise typically lucid political analysis. But psychologizing aside, it's a little crazy to write about humanity getting serious about saving itself without even mentioning the growing grassroots movement that has dedicated itself to doing just that.

Overall optimism verdict: 7

Based on the complex mathematical modeling underlying my plausibility scale (please see appendices for more), and assessed from the standpoint of present-day political economy, Chait's piece receives an overall optimism plausibility score of 7, which is pretty dang high. It's certainly a hell of a lot higher than would have been possible even a few years ago.

The big picture on climate change remains overwhelming and fairly depressing. Even with all the positive developments Chait identifies, the status quo trajectory still leads to disaster. But he is right that, for the first time in my lifetime, it looks like it might be real fight.