What Would the End of Football Look Like?

[n2doc]

An economic perspective on CTE and the concussion crisis
By Tyler Cowen and Kevin Grier on February 9, 2012


The NFL is done for the year, but it is not pure fantasy to suggest that it may be done for good in the not-too-distant future. How might such a doomsday scenario play out and what would be the economic and social consequences?

By now we're all familiar with the growing phenomenon of head injuries and cognitive problems among football players, even at the high school level. In 2009, Malcolm Gladwell asked whether football might someday come to an end, a concern seconded recently by Jonah Lehrer.

Before you say that football is far too big to ever disappear, consider the history: If you look at the stocks in the Fortune 500 from 1983, for example, 40 percent of those companies no longer exist. The original version of Napster no longer exists, largely because of lawsuits. No matter how well a business matches economic conditions at one point in time, it's not a lock to be a leader in the future, and that is true for the NFL too. Sports are not immune to these pressures. In the first half of the 20th century, the three big sports were baseball, boxing, and horse racing, and today only one of those is still a marquee attraction.

The most plausible route to the death of football starts with liability suits.1 Precollegiate football is already sustaining 90,000 or more concussions each year. If ex-players start winning judgments, insurance companies might cease to insure colleges and high schools against football-related lawsuits. Coaches, team physicians, and referees would become increasingly nervous about their financial exposure in our litigious society. If you are coaching a high school football team, or refereeing a game as a volunteer, it is sobering to think that you could be hit with a $2 million lawsuit at any point in time. A lot of people will see it as easier to just stay away. More and more modern parents will keep their kids out of playing football, and there tends to be a "contagion effect" with such decisions; once some parents have second thoughts, many others follow suit. We have seen such domino effects with the risks of smoking or driving without seatbelts, two unsafe practices that were common in the 1960s but are much rarer today. The end result is that the NFL's feeder system would dry up and advertisers and networks would shy away from associating with the league, owing to adverse publicity and some chance of being named as co-defendants in future lawsuits.

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http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/7559458/cte-concussion-crisis-economic-look-end-football

[Angry Dragon]

1. flag football

no touching

[ThoughtCriminal]

3. I've been thinking the same thing

It could evolve into a less violent game.

But corporations need some form of skull crushing Rollerball for the circus and it ain't soccer.

[yurbud]

11. if no one can get hurt, no one will watch

[libinnyandia]

2. The other football?

[Fumesucker]

5. Heading the ball evidently causes cognitive problems also..

Futbol is not free of problems either..

[Ron Obvious]

9. Isn't the evidence a bit sketchy for that?

I know I've seen a study on this some years ago that compared footballers' (or soccer players, if you like) with the general public and which found their IQ scores below average and inferred brain damage as the cause.

A more valid study would be a longitudinal study that compared IQ scores at age 16 or so with IQ scores up until age 40, but to the best of my knowledge such a study hasn't been done. The evidence for brain damage, as it stands currently, could just indicate footballers tend to be rather thick. This wouldn't be a great surprise to anyone who has heard them interviewed.

It would also be interesting to see how goalkeepers fared in such a study. They don't head the ball much, and Petr Čech aside, wouldn't suffer as much head trauma ordinarily.

[Mopar151]

13. You could ask my hometown neighbor, part of a family soccer dynasty.

High School and college All-American, one of the first to leave the sport due to head injuries. Last I heard, had left the family business and was in a nasty public fued with some of his family.

[Speck Tater]

4. The only logical answer is ROBOT FOOTBALL!!!

Who wouldn't pay to watch huge hulking robots tear each other limb from limb as they fight over a 30 pound solid steel football?

[Redstate Bluegirl]

7. FOX NFL Pregame & Halftime & Postgame already has that!

LOL!

[trof]

16. How about 'virtual football'?

Computer generated images.
Now that would be weird.

[hedgehog]

28. There's always

http://ep.yimg.com/ca/I/grandmaspoils_2195_261157402

[TexasProgresive]

6. I don't see an economic downside

How do professional sports generate wealth? IMO they do not they are like the lottery in that they suck money from people, advertizes and cities for that matter and in return what?

[bluedigger]

19. Subsistence economy for everybody! Yay!

I mean, really, other than food, shelter, and sex, what's the point of anything we do?

[sad sally]

8. Gee, imagine if war could be banned because of the head injuries it causes? n/t

[customerserviceguy]

10. Ok, so the thrust of this article

is because companies disappear in a rapidly changing economy, and Napster finally succumbed to pressures from lawsuits and alternatives, the NFL is going to die off, because of a few head injuries, that take decades to manifest themselves.

Naw, not buying it. There are thousands of people every year willing to risk all kinds of injury for the privilige of getting a few hundred thousand dollars a year, and the chance of making millions, should their performance on the 'right' team coincide. There are many millions of people willing to support this game through merchandising, cable TV purchases (including folks who don't even watch sports) and flat out ticket sales, no matter what happens to the participants.

Yes, lawsuits might someday stop the farm system of the NFL, but something else will surely evolve to take its place, should that day ever arrive. I'm not holding my breath.

[yurbud]

12. the people most likely to suffer those injuries are least likely to sue in large numbers

they worship the stupid fucking game.

they could be paralyzed like Christopher Reeve and still not think there's anything wrong with the game itself.

There are two strong reasons it shouldn't go away:

1. It keeps these bruisers busy until they are too old to get in much trouble.
   
   
2. It's a form of voluntary natural selection.

For the second, it would be better if we didn't change the rules but took away their helmets.

[Mopar151]

15. Nice nasty rant there, if a bit over the top.

Look - there are 3 other popular pro sports with similar problems - boxing, wrestling, and MMA "Cagefighting". None have a public school farm system to speak of. The implication that "bruisers" that play these sports deserve what they get is particularly nasty, and kinda dumb besides.
The NFL uses a test called the "Wunderlich" to asses intelligence as part of it's scouting process, and it turns out a lot of those big, bad mofos are very smart. And there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to support this for the other combat sports as well.

I've been deeply involved in motorsport since childhood, and the route our sport has taken may provide a path for others. Before WW2, the life expectancy of a professional driver was about 7 seasons. One of the books about that era is titled "Damm Few Died in Bed"! But it was not government regulation or lawsuits that forced change, but the drive and ingenuity of those within the sport who developed the safety equipment that makes death and serious injury a comparitive rarity today - and protects millions on the highway. Were it not for anti-car zealots like Ralph Nader and Joan Claybrook, and the insurance industry's focus on "passive" safety, you could be even safer on the highway as well.

[yurbud]

22. my comment was partly hyperbole--but a lot of football players would still go all the way

even if they knew the risks of being seriously disabled are quite a bit higher than winning $5 in the lottery.

[Mopar151]

25. Something like 30 % of Olympic atheletes

Would trade a 5-year life expectancy for a lock on a medal.

"There's guys out there that would run all the way to the last light - If the finish line was at the edge of a cliff! " Don Garlits (the last timing light (for mph) is 132' past the finish line)

[yurbud]

30. ONLY 5 years?

You'd probably get a a good number who would be willing to drop dead shortly after getting a gold in exchange for winning.

[bluedigger]

18. I agree that the author chose a poor analogy to make his point.

The churn of the business world is a better choice for looking at the histories of the USFL, AFL, etc...

But his premise that lawsuits could render the NFL unworkable isn't specious. A better comparison might be the private aviation industry. There is no reason that light aircraft couldn't be produced at costs competitive with the auto industry today. But liability costs crushed the industry decades ago.

Another recreational industry with high liability risks would be skiing. They work around it by making the customer assume all liability - and that may be what the NFL has to do. I know of at least three people who have died skiing this year, and I'm sure there are several others, but only football (and motorsports) seem to draw the ire here at DU.

[Mopar151]

20. Some of the problem is fear of lawsuits

Last edited Sun Feb 12, 2012, 03:33 AM - Edit history (1)

The light aircraft business has several interrelated problems, only one of which is liability costs. Some of it is the very nature of flight - run out of gas on the road or the track, and, most of the time, it's merely an inconvenience. Run out of gas in the air, and it is apt to get ugly.

We race at ski areas in our series - and, sometimes, we compare notes. One of the things that save both sports in a vigorus defense- in court - of liability claims of dubious merit. Bill Simpson has set himself on fire on courthouse steps more than once to prove the capabilities of his driving suits - and then disrobed in the judges chambers to show the lack of burns. In the case of racing, we all sign a bulletproof release at the gate. The release has been set aside in court - but only in cases of egregious gross negligence.

And that, IMHO, is where football is failing. The NFL (and WWE/F) is stonewalling on head injuries, despite major outcries from pro players and coaches. Corporate sports equipment manufacturers have little stake in the game, in comparison to the propietor-driven, "all-in" racing equipment companies. And racing sanctioning bodies, and racers themselves, are very proactive on safety issues, including the testing and certification of equipment.



http://vintageracecar.com/pages/thismonth.cgi?magid=25&magiid=80

[customerserviceguy]

21. If such lawsuits ever did develop

the owners of the NFL teams would spend mega-millions on crushing them. I'm sure there are already contract clauses that have been expertly drafted, and if they can steer the first cases to places where football is more like a religion than a spectator sport, they can buy some judgments in their favor to act as either a precident or as simple discouragement to anyone else trying to file a suit.

It's too easy to simply make the case that participation in the NFL is voluntary, that it's well known to be a contact sport, and that the people who are in it are there to become heavily compensated. This is not like John Edwards suing a swimming pool drain company.

[Mopar151]

31. What it comes down to is 1 word - reasonable

reasonable - as in, what precautions would a reasonable, informed person take, and/or Vs. +/- what expectations should a reasonable person have - the case I'm familiar with (Wolfgang vs. World of Outlaws) hinged on whether a national series of 800 hp, methanol burning cars should expect a track fire crew consisting of 2 guys in a pickup with 2 extinguishers, or something a little better than that.

The question here should be - should the NFL players reasonably expect to have state-of-the art protective equipment provided to them? Has the NFL contribuied significantly to research and development of equipment, facilities, and rules, either in kind or in cash? If the NFL and it's vendors haven't been talking to the Snell Foundation for a couple decades, there otta be an indictment!
In our deal, if you find something to not be suitable, you notify an offical and leave. The players are employees, and may have additional rights and expectations.

[customerserviceguy]

32. Equipment has improved over the years

And NFL rules on penalties for unsportsmanlike conduct, etc. have also moved in the direction of player safety. That's something the NFL will cite in any lawsuit, and they're right.

At some point, the individual is responsible for his own choices, and my bet is that the league will be effective at finding lawyers who can hammer that point home hard with juries.

[hack89]

34. It would be lawsuits by parents directed at school boards

it would be a local issue. But after the first major award, insurance rates would sky rocket - into today's cash strapped times, many school districts would have no choice.

[dipsydoodle]

14. Play what you call soccer instead

and rugby too.

[bemildred]

17. Much quieter I would think. nt

[Populist_Prole]

23. and more pleasant. n/t

[bemildred]

24. That goes without saying.

[malthaussen]

26. Bring Back Gladitorial Combat!!!

I can think of quite a few "Christians" I'd like to send to the lions... although I would feel guilty about giving the poor kitties getting indigestion.

-- Mal

[Doctor_J]

27. I just read a book on the impending doom of football

due to injuries, insurance costs, etc. The copyright is 1978. Isn't going to happen.

[n2doc]

29. Maybe not, but you do have to admit the game has changed pretty radically since 1978

Especially on defense. Eventually it may still be called football but not really resemble what we are used to.

[Doctor_J]

33. And in 1978 it had changed radically since 1955

I am surprised that the NFL, having seen what happened to the tobacco industry because of their lying, didn't come clean right away. "Yup, anyone who plays or watches this sport knows it is extremely physical, and our workers are in peril every Sunday. We do our very best to keep them safe within that framework, and try to offset their short career expectancy by paying them enough in 4 years to live for a lifetime. Any physician who hides or underplays a head injury will be fired the minute the NFL hears about it. People like our game because of the physica nature, so we don't want to alter it drastically, but we will not deliberately risk our workers' health, period"

Instead, they got involved in a coverup. Very bad idea. Fortunately for them they probably have enough money to buy their way out of it.

[fishwax]

35. I think this part is a bit naive/misguided

"Outside of sports, American human capital and productivity probably rise. No football Saturdays on college campuses means less binge drinking, more studying, better grades, smarter future adults. Losing thousands of college players and hundreds of pro players might produce a few more doctors or engineers. Plus, talented coaches and general managers would gravitate toward management positions in American industry. Heck, just getting rid of fantasy football probably saves American companies hundreds of millions of dollars annually."

No football Saturdays on college campuses means students find a different reason to party. Some would-be college football players might become doctors or engineers, sure--but on the other hand, some people who might have great potential are now not going to set foot on a college campus. Talented coaches and general managers may gravitate to industry, but on the other hand many coaches/general managers wouldn't have developed their leadership and organizational skills without football. And so on.

Overall, I don't think the gist of the article--that football may not be around forever--is entirely off base. Nothing lasts forever, after all. But I think the timeline they project is overly aggressive, and I think the fall of football will more likely coincide with the rise of something else. They mention baseball, boxing, and horse racing as the marquee sports of the early 20th century, with only one remaining a marquee attraction. And yet, the attention paid to sports in general hasn't diminished with the fading of boxing (which has been supplanted by MMA/Ultimate fighting) and horse racing (which wasn't exactly supplanted by auto racing, but NASCAR has certainly filled the void).

[eridani]

36. How about imposing team weight limits?

I read that somewhere. Total weight of all members of the team on the field at any given time can't be over a certain amount.