5 Ways to View Putin’s Syrian Surprise
How are we to make sense of Vladimir Putins announcement that the bulk of the Russian expeditionary force in Syria is to be withdrawn over an as-of-yet undefined period in the coming weeks and months? Is this a Kremlin victory lap, or a way to extricate Russia from what might prove to be a dangerous and costly mistake? Here are five ways to view Putins surprise.
1) Mission accomplished
The most straightforward explanation, based on an assessment that the Russian expeditionary deployment, which began last September, was always intended to be a short-term operation. At the time, the Kremlin made no grandiose promises about what its active involvement in the Syrian civil war would bringno boasting about how the Islamic State would be destroyed or statements about restoring control over all of Syria to the regime of Bashar al-Assad.
Like the Russian intervention in the Donbass the year before, Putin moved to act swiftly in Syria at a time when most Western experts were confidently predicting that Assad, finally, had reached the end of his rope and that the opposition would soon be in Damascus. The Russian military presence in Syria was supposed to assist the Assad regime, and it has done that. Six months later, in March 2016, no one is talking about how Assad is about to fall; the Syrian government forces and their various militia allies have regained the initiative on the battlefield, taking back key villages that strengthen their ability to keep control of the parts of Syria they occupy while degrading the capabilities of the opposition.
http://nationalinterest.org/feature/5-ways-view-putins-syrian-surprise-15499
Exellent analysis, by the way.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)Bottom line.
Purveyor
(29,876 posts)(again) and Vladimir needs he troops back home to deal with any developments.
I'm not certain if he is interested in taking all of Ukraine but if that is even a distant desire, he needs to make his move before the US seats a 'war president' come 2017.
bemildred
(90,061 posts)He won't let the Russian ethnics in Ukraine be attacked without defense, but he doesn't want to own it. He wants to make Kiev take them back.
He knows when to pull out and declare victory. When you are ahead. The Pentagon could learn from this. They used to know, some of them anyway.
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)And Russian Oil Price is killing their country. Notice the new alignment with Iran and this is rubbing Germany a bit. Remember,Merkel runs Eourpe and no one else. All one has to do is watch John Kerry's moves,and this Guy gets it done. He has done more for World Peace than Clinton or her predecessors since Jimmy Carter.