"The rise of Turkey as a superpower"

[uawchild]

A prescient article from 2012 about Turkey:

Author: Nicholas Burns, Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations, Harvard Kennedy School
Belfer Center Programs or Projects: Future of Diplomacy Project

When the Cold War ended, more than a few European and American officials predicted that Turkey would decline rapidly in geopolitical significance. Without the Soviet threat, they said, Turkey’s role as a bulwark against communist expansion was finished and it was destined to be a second-tier power in the 21st century.
That prediction, of course, could not have been more shortsighted. During the past decade, Turkey has become the rising power in Europe, arguably the world’s most influential Muslim country and a dynamic inspiration for young Arab reformers. Turkey is the only European country that has grown in power since the financial crisis and the start of the Arab uprisings. While European economic fortunes have contracted, Turkey has one of the fastest growing global economies. Turkey may even now be more powerful in the Middle East than Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. This is all supremely ironic for a country long excluded from positions of power in NATO and which has had the door to the European Union slammed shut in recent years.
Turkey’s rise has been engineered by its brilliant, proud, and often prickly prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A devout Muslim, Erdogan has revolutionized Turkish politics by challenging his country’s historic commitment to secularism and introducing a greater role for Islam in Turkish politics. Under his leadership, Turkey was, for a time, the only country that managed decent relations with all the regional powers, including Israel, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Long a geographic bridge between East and West, Turkey under Erdogan became the go-to marriage counselor in the violent and unstable Middle East — mediating secret talks between Israel and Syria, building a close strategic relationship with the Israelis, and nudging Iran to be more reasonable on the nuclear issue.
During the last two years, however, Erdogan has shifted dramatically from honest broker to a more aggressive, independent, and often unpredictable course — breaking relations with Israel over the Palestinian issue, spurning the Europeans, and, most surprisingly this year, turning his back on his former friend, Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad and calling openly for revolution against his regime.
Turkey’s relationship with the United States has been no less controversial. Long a stolid and unquestioning supporter of America during the Cold War, Turkey has become a mercurial and more dyspeptic ally since 9/11. The Turkish Parliament refused to permit American troops to invade Iraq from Turkish soil in 2003. In recent years, Turkey has blocked US efforts on Cyprus and prevented closer NATO ties with the European Union. Erdogan has also turned worrisomely authoritarian at home, imprisoning large numbers of former military leaders without charge and restricting press freedoms. Indeed, when the subject of Turkey is raised in government offices across Europe and even in Washington, officials will often roll their eyes and complain about just how difficult it is to work with newly confident Turkey.

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/21970/rise_of_turkey_as_a_superpower.html

[DetlefK]

1. Erdogan has botched this superpower thing before he started it.

He squandered all the goodwill he had in the EU. And Turkey is only in NATO because they need the access to the Middle-East. The friendship is long gone.



Erdogan wanted to topple Assad and indirectly supported ISIS for that.

Erdogan antagonized Israel and Russia and later tried to paint it as a diplomatic success that he repaired the relationships that he had destroyed.

The turkish army is oprating in iraqi soil without permission of Iraq. Iraq and Iraq's new big brother, Iran, won't forget that meddling.

The turkish army is fighting the turkish Kurds instead of ISIS. The iraqi Kurds won't forget that and neither will the iranian Kurds. If Iran can mend their relationship with the Kurds and start over, they can use them as a proxy just like Assad was their proxy.

Assad will stay in power because the Russians will kill all the islamist and secular rebels that threaten Syria's mediterranean ports. And what will Assad think about Erdogan, the guy who allied with ISIS to topple him?

What if the EU changes tactics and tries to stop the refugees in Greece, rather than in Turkey, giving Greece leeway, money and attention? What will Erdogan do when the EU no longer needs his goodwill?

[Bob Loblaw]

2. I don't know about that

but Benjamin Franklin suggested it as the national bird.