How World War III Could Begin in Latvia

[elleng]

'Four years ago, I predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Here’s my next prediction, which by now will strike many people as obvious: The Baltics are next, and will pose one of President-elect Donald Trump’s first and greatest tests. It probably won’t take the form of an overt invasion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has a clear goal and a grand strategy. But it’s not the most realists perceive. Some argue that he is driven by fundamentally rational, defensive goals: NATO expansion appeared threatening and Russia is pushing back. The West expanded its sphere of influence at Russia’s expense, and Russia is now retaliating. That’s why the “Ukraine Crisis Is the West’s Fault,” according to John Mearsheimer.

As with most academic realist analysis, this is nonsense. Putin is not driven by cold calculations of rational self-interest, because no human is. We are not Vulcans. We are driven by our perception of self-interest as shaped and defined by our deeper presuppositions and beliefs — which is to say, our ideology or religion.

Putin believes hegemony over Russia’s near-abroad is necessary for Russian security because of his beliefs about Russian nationhood and historical destiny. Putin (and, perhaps more so, his inner circle) isn’t merely nationalist. The Kremlin appears to be driven by peculiar form of Russian nationalism infused with religion, destiny, and messianism. In this narrative, Russia is the guardian of Orthodox Christianity and has a mission to protect and expand the faith.

A truly rational Russia would not see NATO and European Union expansion as a threat, because the liberal order is open and inclusive and would actually augment Russia’s security and prosperity. But, for Putin and other Russians who see the world through the lens of Russian religious nationalism, the West is inherently a threat because of its degeneracy and globalism.'>>>

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/16/how-world-war-iii-could-begin-in-latvia/?

[GP6971]

1. On the overt side I think

it will be North Korea

[doc03]

2. I think Trump has pretty much given Putin a green light on

that since he doesn't back NATO. Maybe he does this week, who the f-- knows?

[JayhawkSD]

3. Really?

"A truly rational Russia would not see NATO and European Union expansion as a threat,"

So if, say, Germany installed battalions of tanks, artillery and missiles on both the Canadian and Mexican borders, we would not feel threatened because Germany is a "liberal order" that is "open and inclusive and would actually augment our security and prosperity?" All that military hardware aimed at us would not bother us?

And Russia is not bothered by the threatening rhetoric coming from the US, which is the acknowledged leader of NATO? Nor does it make any connection between the sanctions imposed by the same nations which are providing the battalions of tanks, artillery and missiles that are lining up in the NATO nations on its borders? Sanctions and military hardware from the "liberal order" that is "open and inclusive and would actually augment Russia's security and prosperity?"

I think someone needs a reality check.

[Igel]

7. You get a lot of causality backwards.

Also you miss the attitudes of many near-Russian countries to Russia.

We "get it" when a country like Venezuela is opposed to the US because we interfered there a few times over the last 200 years.

We immediately go sense-blind when a country like Latvia is opposed to Russia when it's only be free from being a forced part of Russia run for Russia's benefit for a few decades in the last 300. It was last annexed *before* WWII started when it wasn't sufficiently accommodating to Russian strategic interests--in that case trying to stay out of harm's way. So Stalin took it over without a murmur from the West, installed his own people, made Russian the important language, imported thousands of Russians into positions of authority over Latvians, and all but killed the language. Russians resent that the Latvians don't appreciate all that they did to them. It's a deeply felt resentment, sometimes hate. It comes across as a white reformer's resentment and anger when a black family they foisted themselves on and tried to reform and preach to tells them to get the hell out of their lives: the ungrateful fools are both stupid and can't show appreciation.

Yet many think what the US did to, say, Honduras was much, much worse.

Don't know about this site's politics, but the best culturally-aware representation I've seen of Russian policy in the last year is here: http://observer.com/2016/11/why-vladimir-putin-hates-us/ Yes, it says bad things about Obama. Meh. Until Obama can wave his hand and disarm the world and make the lion lie down with the lamb (the lamb not bloodied and in the lion's jaws, that is), he's fallible.

It's true to what I've seen and read and heard since 2000 and before, echoes what Putin-supporters have told me and what I've seen them write. Accounts for both actions and inactions. And instead of being limited to what sources on one side of the political divide say in English, it accounts for the information on both sides of the American or Western political divide, a tozhe to, chto v russkom yazyke. It handles what I've seen in English and Russian, in Czech and Polish and even Ukrainian. It accounts for Chetnik support of Putin and his support of them and the Night Wolve's. (They may be fascist, but dammit, they're pro-Russian pro-Orthodox fascists, in other words, they're true patriots. If you're a liberal, pro-democracy and pro-gay rights activist that's anti-Russian, then you're a true fascist. Gotta know the lingo.)

[JayhawkSD]

10. I think you are confusing Russia with the Soviet Union. nt

[That Guy 888]

12. It seems like Putin does too. n/t

[Grey Lemercier]

11. The Observer is Jared "Trumplet" Kushner's paper BUT

that article is so anti Russia and has links to completely ANTI TRUMP sites and articles. What the fuck game is he playing????

We are in a completely untethered bizarro-world. Terrifying all round.

[oberliner]

4. I'm thinking Estonia

But Latvia is certainly a possibility as well.

They also just tried for a coup in Montenegro.

[Brother Buzz]

5. I'm thinking Latvia

Russia really, really needs to connect Kaliningrad, and its year-round port, to the rest of the Russian Federation, and Russia's rail agreement with Latvia is tenuous at best. Kaliningrad is the real ulcer in the Baltics, but Russia will stop at nothing to maintain (and increase) its presence in the area.

[oberliner]

6. Spooked by Russia, Tiny Estonia Trains a Nation of Insurgents

Excerpt:

Estonia, a NATO member with a population of 1.3 million people and a standing army of about 6,000, would not stand a chance in a conventional war with Russia. But two armies fighting on an open field is not Estonia’s plan, and was not even before Donald J. Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, said European members of NATO should not count on American support unless they pay more alliance costs.

Since the Ukraine war, Estonia has stepped up training for members of the Estonian Defense League, teaching them how to become insurgents, right down to the making of improvised explosive devices, or I.E.D.s, the weapons that plagued the American military in Iraq and Afghanistan. Another response to tensions with Russia is the expansion of a program encouraging Estonians to keep firearms in their homes.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/world/europe/spooked-by-russia-tiny-estonia-trains-a-nation-of-insurgents.html

[Brother Buzz]

8. I read that when it was first published

All the Baltic states are spooked. And historically, Estonians really hate Russians. Hell, in an ironic "The enemy of my enemy is my friend" moment, the Estonians kinda sorta embraced Germany's invasion during the Second World War - that's how much they hated the pig Russian bureaucrats running roughshod over their country.

[Igel]

9. Probably only a good thing until it's occupied.

Then it's a bad thing.

Groznyi. Better to kill a thousand civilians than for one Russian soldier to die.

Not that Russian soldiers can't die in battle. But it gives you an idea about what an acceptable kill-ratio is.

Published in an approved military/defense journal, by the military "leader" of the Donetsk People's Republic when Russia was tossing soldiers, munitions, and money at it and in frequent contact with that particular "leader."

A counter insurgency would be considered fit grounds for genocide, fulfilling Stalin's dream and accommodating Putin's idea that one problem with the USSR was it respected ethnic borders and ethnic territorial integrity when it drew internal boundaries. Latvia and Belorus and Ukraine shouldn't have been able to leave with their borders, except (at best) as redefined in 1991 based on then-current ethnic majorities.

[kebob]

13. With Trump as POTUS...

WWIII could begin at a McDonald's drive-thru.

[TuslaUltra]

14. please god, don't let Twitter light up the world with radioactive isotopes

CIA, do something!