Coronavirus: Nine Reasons To Be Reassured
- Coronavirus: Nine Reasons To Be Reassured.- Yes, Covid-19 is serious, but context is key and the world is well placed to deal with it. Jon Henley, The Guardian, March 7, 2020. Excerpts:
The coronavirus epidemic plainly poses an exceptionally serious global problem: in a few short weeks, it has spread from China to more than 80 countries, infecting more than 100,000 people so far and causing more than 3,400 deaths. But as we are hit with minute-by-minute updates from around the world, experiencing the advance of Covid-19 in real time news alerts, huge headlines, social media hysteria theres a risk that we might lose some essential context.
Yes, this virus is obviously a massive challenge: medical, political and perhaps most strikingly at present social and economic. But it is worth remembering the world has never had better tools to fight it, and that if we are infected, we are unlikely to die from it.
Here, courtesy of a number of scientists but mainly Ignacio López-Goñi, a professor of microbiology and virology at the University of Navarra in Spain, are what might hopefully prove a few reassuring facts about the new coronavirus:
We know what it is. As López-Goñi wrote for the Conversation France, the virus causing cases of severe pneumonia in Wuhan was identified within seven days of the official announcement on 31 December, and, three days after that, the gene sequence was available. The Aids virus, by contrast, took two years to identify after it first appeared in mid-1981, López-Goni noted. We also know the virus is natural, that it is related to a virus found in bats, and that it can mutate, but does not appear to do so very often.
We can test for it. By 13 January three days after the gene sequence was published a reliable test was available, developed by scientists at the department of virology at Berlins Charité university hospital with help from experts in Rotterdam, London and Hong Kong. We know it can be contained (albeit at considerable cost). Chinas draconian quarantine and containment measures appear to be working. On Thursday 120 new cases were reported in Wuhan, the lowest figure for six weeks, and, for the first time since the start of the outbreak, none at all in the rest of Hubei province. Several Chinese provinces have had no new cases for a fortnight and more are reopening their schools. In many countries, infections are in defined clusters, which should allow them to be more readily contained.
Catching it is not that easy (if we are careful) and we can kill it quite easily (provided we try). Frequent, careful hand washing, as we now all know, is the most effective way to stop the virus being transmitted, while a solution of ethanol, hydrogen peroxide or bleach will disinfect surfaces. To be considered at high risk of catching the coronavirus you need to live with, or have direct physical contact with, someone infected, be coughed or sneezed on by them (or pick up a used tissue), or be in face-to-face contact, within two metres, for more than 15 minutes. Were not talking about passing someone in the street.
In most cases, symptoms are mild, and young people are at very low risk. According to a study of 45,000 confirmed infections in China, 81% of cases caused only minor illness, 14% of patients had symptoms described as severe, and just 5% were considered critical, with about half of those resulting in death. Only 3% of cases concern people under 20, children seem barely affected by the virus at all, and the mortality rate for the under-40s is about 0.2%. The rate rises in the over-65s, reaching nearly 15% in the over-80s, especially those with pre-existing heart or lung conditions. Calculating mortality rates during an ongoing epidemic is hard because it is not clear how many mild or asymptomatic cases have been tested for, but the best estimate we have for the coronavirus so far is 1.4% somewhere between 1918 Spanish flu and 2009 swine flu.
People are recovering from it. As the daily count maintained by the John Hopkins CSSE shows, thousands of people around the world are making confirmed recoveries from the coronavirus every day...
Read More, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/07/coronavirus-reasons-to-be-reassured
*Pandemic Panic: 5 Tips To Help Regain Your Calm
https://www.democraticunderground.com/114222718
Squinch
(51,004 posts)That's all we know so far who caught it from him, but that number was half that yesterday. I'm local to that guy and the local news just reported a new case related to him, a boy who plays on a youth hockey team and is very active within a local school system.
And I am not sure where the guardian is getting its mortality rate, but the World Health Organization is putting the mortality rate at 3.4%.
appalachiablue
(41,171 posts)There are still quite a few positives as the article points out, the research level, testing, recovery rate, etc.
http://www.nydailynews.com/new-york/nyc-crime/ny-westchester-rabbi-with-diagnosed-with-coronavirus-20200306-lokwhdkgwffglfitxo3cca75wy-story.html
Squinch
(51,004 posts)infuriating. For all the positives we can look at, there is this major negative: Filthy Donnie's administration is turning our country into a petri dish.
appalachiablue
(41,171 posts)I agree, it's just appalling and beyond dangerous. Absorbing credible medical info. and taking precautions is critical I realize but so is keeping things in perspective. Stress and worry can also make people more vulnerable to disease, so keeping that down is vital as well.
In these last weeks I'm reminded of the Aids crisis in the 1980s and working in a health and disability agency for the visually impaired and with Aids patients from NIH when little was known and without info. and guidance from our lax administrator who lacked any interest and background in health and medicine. That was almost worse than the ongoing disease.
These are dangerous times in America for sure. I've never seen the US as unprepared and functionally incompetent on a national level before -- some see it as decline of institutions and systems into Third World status.
OhNo-Really
(3,985 posts)Case for social distancing to avoid overwhelming medical capacity
spinbaby
(15,090 posts)Thats still not reassuring, considering how fast its spread. It tends to spread among people who are indoors together, so there is hope it will slow when the weather warms.
Squinch
(51,004 posts)or 3 depending on the source.
Here's one:
https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html
The flu has a mortality rate of 0.1%. Coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.4%.
The two are not comparable.
And as for whether warm weather will help, there is hope for that, however it is beginning its spread in the Southern Hemisphere where it is warm weather right now.
spinbaby
(15,090 posts)They interviewed a man in quarantine, which was interesting, and then had some kind of expert on who said that, if Coronavirus were as contagious as flu, it would be far more widespread by now.
Maggiemayhem
(811 posts)paleotn
(17,956 posts)on anything definitive. So far its R0 is comparable to seasonal flu. We shall see.
BernieBabies
(78 posts)Even if the mortality rate is over-stated due to under-reported cases, the R0 number - which is an exponent(!) - must drop below 1.3.
As an example, after 32 iterations of spreading:
1.3^32 = 4427 - flu, no problem
2.0^32 = 4+ billion - assuming 2.5 is over-stated
1.6^32 = 2.4 million
forgotmylogin
(7,530 posts)People who realize they are sick are usually moderately careful, but if you're not sneezing or coughing there's no physical signs to avoid close contact with people, shaking hands, etc...it's possible to spread it unknowingly.
It may not spread like the flu, but without symptoms, people don't usually behave like they have the flu.
Blues Heron
(5,940 posts)likely far lower. The head of the WHO simply divided the deaths by the OFFICIAL number of REGISTERED cases. it was not an estimate of the true fatality rate. That was one of the most irresponsible moves on that guys part because now people bandy about that figure like it's the actual death rate. It isn't.
Squinch
(51,004 posts)I would be very surprised if the WHO did that.
Blues Heron
(5,940 posts)Squinch
(51,004 posts)Blues Heron
(5,940 posts)It clearly says the rate is among reported cases -
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142441039
Globally, about 3.4 percent of reported Covid-19 cases have died, Dr. Tedros
Squinch
(51,004 posts)it makes me feel somewhat better.
Blues Heron
(5,940 posts)obamanut2012
(26,137 posts)OhNo-Really
(3,985 posts)Scientists are begging each of us to do our part to slow the spread by social distancing
Collaborating scientists have done THE MATH
Read their report on US medical capacity & why we each need to help slow down the spread of this virus.
Happy talk is dangerous. Fear mongering is dangerous
Facts and each being proactive to slow the spread will save 1000s of lives
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213054589
IndyOp
(15,535 posts)The Coronavirus, by the Numbers
Mathematician whose specialty is modeling spread, etc. says that he believes fatality rate will be 0.5 to 2.0 by the time all is said and done.
Also, right now, we are not focusing on the most important issue - the likely 15% fatality rate for people over 70-80.
Generic Brad
(14,275 posts)beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)that apparently can "re-infect" a "recovered" patients. AND a virus that appears that can be transmitted to dogs as well.
I see no big "reassurance" here, especially when politicians can not make the hard choices. I understand the need to "quell" panic in the general population, but it doesn;t stop what is happening
appalachiablue
(41,171 posts)but people shouldn't give up on life and hope, doom up and curl into a ball. Jeeze.
My family survived the polio epidemics, TB, Spanish Flu, several wars and more with good sense and health. In 1918 my grandmother was likely exposed to the Influenza while pregnant and survived with the infant; after that she survived appendicitis while pregnant and had another healthy child. She was married to a doctor.
I think attitude and physical health play important roles in health outcomes and understand that in many cases no amount of faith and good will can prevent loss and tragedy; we lost a healthy young brother to Aids, so I know.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)the we more lose FAITH in what can be done and then resign our selves to the incompetency. That causes wholesale panic when that threshold is met.
Maggiemayhem
(811 posts)The Governor said their tests were sent to CDC and results are supposed to be back in 5-10 days. Doesnt that seem to be a long time? There isnt a lab in WV or neighboring states of Virginia,Maryland or Pennsylvania that is qualified to read the tests in a shorter amount of time? The CDC told people over sixty or with chronic disease to practice social distancing. If the country doesnt get their crap together, the economy will tank because it is not stable to begin with.
appalachiablue
(41,171 posts)and poor communication in this crisis is contributing to a lot more uncertainty and fear!
Squinch
(51,004 posts)gab13by13
(21,402 posts)We don't fucking know what kind of a problem we have because Trump doesn't want to test people. People will get coronavirus and recover from it and we will never be the wiser. People will get coronavirus and die from it and we will never be the wiser.
A woman died at the nursing home in Washington and she was not tested for coronavirus, her daughter demands she be tested. Governor Inslee wants the state to take over the nursing home because it is so incompetent, that is why yesterday, Trump called Inslee a snake.
central scrutinizer
(11,661 posts)Where it is summer, now. I know its early days. Maybe it will abate in warmer weather like the flu. Of course, the Spanish flu in 1918 did the same but came roaring back in the fall and winter. If it does abate, Im afraid we will immediately become complacent. Worse, the cultists will see it as evidence that God has provided the miracle requested by his anointed one.
keopeli
(3,524 posts)defacto7
(13,485 posts)Australia, South Africa, Several in South America and don't forget hot countries just above the equator like Iran which is one of the worst. It's also all across the Middle East. It's already pretty well established that warm weather has little to no effect. On surfaces above 86 degrees F. the virus has less life span but it's the difference between 9 days and 6 days after contact. In the host there's no change.
BlueMTexpat
(15,373 posts)did there and LOVE it!
As for the coronavirus, I'm basically following common sense rules. Of course, I am fortunate enough to live in a country where people believe in competence and science.
appalachiablue
(41,171 posts)common sense is critical. I'm just trying to think and take in the facts as well as keep up with good habits and following the most responsible news. Squash any complacency I encounter. It's dawning on me however that we're in the initial stages of this epidemic and there will likely be a long way to go before a true vaccine and other improvements. A full year ahead!
BlueMTexpat
(15,373 posts)And the WH & Co are still in denial.
Perhaps THIS will serve as a wake-up call. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238
Anyone living in Lombardy and 14 other central and northern provinces will need special permission to travel. Milan and Venice are both affected.
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte also announced the closure of schools, gyms, museums, nightclubs and other venues across the whole country.
The drastic measures will last until 3 April.
Italy has seen the largest number of coronavirus cases in Europe and reported a steep rise in infections on Saturday. The strict new quarantine measures affect a quarter of the Italian population and centre on the part of the country that powers its economy.
...
pat_k
(9,313 posts)Whey did the CDC decide they needed to come up with "their own" rather than use the reliable test already developed? (An effort that took an additional 3 weeks.) What process/reasoning, went into this disastrous decision?
What failures in process allowed the "performance issues" to go undetected until AFTER they began distributing their test around Feb 3? (Problems identified by recipients, NOT the CDC.)
Why did samples most states have to continue to send their samples to CDC for an additional 4 weeks (through March 2), causing a "bottleneck"?
And why is it only in the last couple days that they appear to have recognized the urgency and begun to really "ramp up" testing capacity?
Here's an article from VOX. It describes the problems. All well and good. We've heard enough vague excuses. What we need is a close examination of the processes that led to each of these inexplicable failures. Would love to see someone like Jane Mayer get on this.
Link to March 6 article