Why AP Hasn't Called North Carolina: Explainer

[appalachiablue]

Last edited Thu Nov 5, 2020, 06:43 AM - Edit history (1)

AP News, Nov. 4, 2020. 'WHY AP HASN’T CALLED NORTH CAROLINA':

The Associated Press has not declared a winner in North Carolina’s presidential contest because the race between President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden is too early to call. Trump, who is locked in a tight battle with Biden to secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, prematurely claimed early Wednesday that he won the state.

“We’ve clearly won North Carolina, where we’re up 1.7%, 77,000 votes with only approximately 5% left. They can’t catch us,” he said during an appearance at the White House. Trump also said he planned to contest the U.S. presidential election before the Supreme Court. It was unclear, exactly, what legal action he might pursue.

Though Trump is correct that he held a 76,000-vote lead in the state early Wednesday, the race is too early to call and there are still under 200,000 mail-in ballots left to count.

As long as those ballots were postmarked by Nov. 3, state election officials have until Nov. 12 to count them. And when it comes to mail ballots, Biden was outperforming Trump by far. That means there’s a considerable number of ballots yet to be counted that could give Biden a lead.

https://apnews.com/article/why-ap-has-not-called-north-carolina-e07a1022a90ef31ca7c75d32eea1849b

*NYT/AP: Election Needles: Forecast, President

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/forecast-president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu_recirc

[helpisontheway]

1. Something strange going on there

Last night someone said they do not expect to see anymore numbers from NC until November 11th. Every other state is reporting numbers daily.

[soothsayer]

2. I think it's because ballots might still be in the mail

As that story says, they simply must be postmarked by November 3 (and received by nov 12).

Then there’s the whole military vote thing, but i don’t know when states account for those.

[mwooldri]

3. I have faith in NC's State Board of Elections.

After all they caught the Republican shenanigans going on in the 9th District that forced them to not certify the result and have a do-over.

[FakeNoose]

4. Saying the same in Pennsylvania

We are accepting late mail in PA, as long as the ballot is postmarked November 3rd it can be received and counted up until Friday November 6th. Next week they will open and count the military absentee ballots, and the provisional ballots that were issued on election day.

Most likely North Carolina is in the same boat as Pennsylvania. Many provisional ballots were issued on Election Day because people either showed up at the wrong poll, or the record showed they were issued a mailed ballot but they decided to vote in-person instead. Nobody was prevented from voting in-person, but they were given a provisional ballot because the state needs to be sure that person's vote isn't already recorded somewhere else. What if somebody really did mail their vote in, but said they didn't so they could vote a second time? I know it seems unlikely but it could happen, and it's the scenario that all the RWNJs are paranoid about.

So those provisional ballots that were issued on Election Day, combined with the military absentee votes, might be only 100,000 votes. But it could be enough to swing the entire state if there are enough of them. Most other states aren't this tight, and the absentee and provisional ballots won't be enough to make a difference.

[WSHazel]

5. The 200,000 mail in ballots

Are these ballots that they already have in their possession or that they think they might get? If it is the former, then Biden still has an outside shot. If it is the latter, the race is over. A lot of the unreturned ballots may never show up.