Russian gas: The energy crisis we did not prepare for
As Moscow and the West saber rattle over threats of cutting Russian pipeline gas supplies to Europe over the Ukraine crisis, it has become clear that the continent has made little progress in reducing its dependency on Russian gas. This comes 13 years after Russia shut down gas supplies through Ukraine, and now Europe is facing an even worse energy crisis. Gas prices currently at around $30 per metric million British thermal units (mmBtu) are already unsustainably high for European gas users, driving inflation, shutting down factories and spilling over to other regions. European policy-makers who have focused mostly on sustainability must urgently put security of supply and equity back on the energy policy agenda.
The International Energy Agency defines energy security as "the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price." This includes the ability of an energy system to react promptly to sudden changes in the supply-demand balance in the short term. Longer-term, it requires timely investments to supply sufficient energy and calls for diversification in terms of fuels, suppliers and supply routes.
Even before any potential total loss of Russian gas, Europe was already facing a bleak winter of tight supply and record natural gas prices. And while many disruption scenarios simulate a sudden supply route disruption combined with extreme climatic conditions, nobody has prepared for a situation where the European energy system would already be stretched to the limit even before a major gas disruption occurs. Gas prices are already unaffordable and most levers available to deal with a short-term disruption are already used.
These levers include demand declines as consumers curb use due to high prices as well as switching to other fuels, measures that have already caused European industrial gas consumption to fall. Residential users exposed to increasing heating bills would have already looked at lowering their thermostat, and coal-fired plants have come back to replace gas-fired plants.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/russian-gas-the-energy-crisis-we-did-not-prepare-for/ar-AATnh4P