GOP extremism explains why Democrats fared well
By Matthew Yglesias / Bloomberg Opinion
As has been noted repeatedly, before and after this week’s elections, for the president’s party to do well in the midterms is unusual.
One of the few such cases on record, in 1998, came amid a sex scandal and with Congress already in opposition hands. Another, in 2002, happened under the shadow of 9/11. There is no similar controversy or cataclysm now, yet as of this writing, Democrats are favored to hold the Senate and have a puncher’s chance of holding the House, while actually gaining governor’s mansions and a couple of state legislative chambers.
How did they do it? As best as I can tell, they did it the old-fashioned way: by making their case to persuadable voters. This was especially true on the issue of abortion, where Democrats were able to contrast their views with the extreme positions of many (admittedly weak) Republican candidates.
It’s not yet fully clear which factors contributed most to the Democrats’ showing, and it probably won’t be for a while. But exit polls provide a clue. In 2006, independent voters went for Democrats by 18 points. Four years later, they swung Republican by 18 points. In 2018, Democrats won independents by 13 points. In a “normal” midterm, Republicans would have won them handily in 2022. Instead, they went for Democrats by 2 points. Two points isn’t much, but for a presidential party in a midterm, it’s staggering.
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