BTRTN New Hampshire Preview: It's All Over but for the Incessant Shouting
Born To Run The Numbers provides its prediction for the New Hampshire Primary:
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2024/01/btrtn-new-hampshire-preview-its-all.html
Excerpts: "It was a nice fantasy while it lasted, and we at BTRTN certainly explored it thoroughly, even as we saw it as the longshot it truly was. We even gave it a cute name, “The Haley Mary.” But the notion that Nikki Haley could somehow defy the odds and find a path to the GOP nomination died in the ice-cold cornfields of Iowa, by the margin of about 2,500 votes.... With those votes, Haley would have come in second, Trump would have failed to achieve 50% of the vote, and DeSantis would likely have dropped out immediately. The free media would have been all about a surging Haley and a vulnerable Trump, and the prospect of a highly competitive two-person race in New Hampshire. A big win by Haley there might have given her the Big Mo she would have needed to challenge in South Carolina and thus contend Super Tuesday..."
"But now Trump is on the verge of sending Haley packing as well. BTRTN predicts Donald Trump will win the New Hampshire primary by a decisive margin, in the +20 point range. There will be no 2024 version of “contrarian” Granite Staters snubbing their noses at the Iowans and anointing their own winner, who has invariably gone on to the win the GOP nomination. Instead, they will validate the Hawkeye State’s choice for the first time since, well, never. No GOP nominee has ever swept Iowa and New Hampshire (that did not feature a sitting president) since the birth of the Iowa caucus in 1976..."
"Just for the record, the pre/post-Christie/Ramaswamy/Hutchinson/DeSantis polling seems to indicate that of the 23 percentage points the four held in New Hampshire before they dropped out, 18 went to Trump and 7 to Haley (one or both of the pair also picked up a few undecided points). Haley did worse than she must have hoped in that fallout, since it would not have been unreasonable to assume she would garner almost all of Christie's voters plus Hutchinson's single point, for a total of +12, but she just managed a little more than half of that. This is perhaps a sign of some New Hampshire voters sensing inevitability."