Ukraine: revolution on the Dnieper
People power has prevailed in Ukraine. It has emptied Kiev's streets of the riot police who had battled protesters since November, galvanised the Ukrainian parliament into a burst of decisive activity, and swept President Viktor Yanukoych not only from office but from the capital itself. It has swept away, too, most, if not all, of the deal that European envoys had put together late last week as they scrambled for a compromise to avert further bloodshed but leave the president in place.
But compromise is not a word that has much leverage in Kiev these days, as it becomes clear that what has happened goes far beyond the fate of one politician and involves much more than a mere realignment of Ukrainian political life. This has been, and continues to be, a revolution, the latest in the series of east European revolutions that began in Poland in 1989, and perhaps the last, unless and until change of this radical order comes to Moscow.
This consideration must rank high in the private deliberations of the Kremlin. At the time of the Orange revolution, the incomplete and disappointing attempt at remaking the Ukrainian political system that began in 2004 with popular manifestations very similar to those of today, Moscow's fear of what the future might bring was summed up in the phrase "Kiev today, Moscow tomorrow". But the Orange revolution stumbled quickly into a morass of infighting, corruption and incompetence. It was soon apparent that Ukraine was not going to be a model for other countries;quite the reverse.
President Vladimir Putin could heave a sigh of relief, and present the tougher and more effective form of authoritarian capitalism that he favoured as the correct choice for the Russian people. That might not be the case for ever, if Ukraine makes the most of new opportunities and gets the right kind of help. Moscow's inner anxieties are among many factors that make the arguments between western countries and Russia over what has happened and what should happen in Ukraine so very delicate. Whatever we might hope for in the long run, America and the EU would be mad to operate as if Ukraine could be a back door to change in Russia. Leave that to history to resolve in her own good time. We should also accept that Russia's baleful view of the revolution has some limited substance. Constitutionality and an elected leader were discarded, and there are some forces on the revolutionary side with repugnant political opinions.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/23/editorial-ukraine-revolution-dnieper