Russia Plotting for Ukrainian Influence, Not Invasion, Analysts Say

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MOSCOW — The separatist demonstrations again churning through eastern Ukraine have raised fears of a Crimean-style invasion by the 40,000 Russian troops coiled just over the Russian border. But Moscow’s goals are more subtle than that, focused on a long-range strategy of preventing Ukraine from escaping Russia’s economic and military orbit, according to political analysts, Kremlin allies and diplomats interviewed this week.

Toward that end, the Kremlin has made one central demand, which does not at first glance seem terribly unreasonable. It wants Kiev to adopt a federal system of government giving far more power to the governors across Ukraine.

“A federal structure will ensure that Ukraine will not be anti-Russian,” said Sergei A. Markov, a Russian political strategist who supports the Kremlin.

Russian officials have said they envision a system in which the regions elect their own leaders and protect their own economic, cultural and religious traditions — including the forging of independent economic ties with Russia.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/04/10/world/europe/russia-plotting-for-ukrainian-influence-not-invasion-analysts-say.html

[TwilightGardener]

1. Sabotage, with the threat of force.

That's the way to be neighborly and get them to love you.

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2. Putin instructs lenient gas policy with Ukraine

MOSCOW, April 9 (Xinhua) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday told the government to drop contractual options and allow Ukraine to get natural gas without one-month prepayment.

"Given the difficult situation Ukraine is currently in, and the incompletion of our negotiating process with the European Union, I would ask the government to refrain for now from applying any options arising from the contract," Putin told a government meeting.

Meanwhile, he ordered the government to hold additional consultations "if, of course, our partners agree to such consultations. If they do not, we shall act in accordance with the contract."

Noting that some European countries recognize the legitimacy of the current Kiev authorities, Putin said they have done nothing to support Ukraine.

http://www.shanghaidaily.com/article/article_xinhua.aspx?id=211593

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3. Crimea scenario in eastern Ukraine is unlikely

There has been a great deal of concern that what has happened in Crimea could repeat itself in eastern Ukraine. But experts maintain that there are few similarities between the two regions.

The situation in the eastern Ukrainian cities of Kharkiv and Donetsk is once again under the control of the official Ukrainian authorities. But demands for a referendum on independence for the 'People's Republic of Donetsk' by a group of local separatists who had occupied the regional administrative office in Donetsk reminded many of the recent events on the Crimean peninsula.

But, can the situation in Crimea and eastern Ukraine be compared?

"I see more difference than similarities between Crimea and eastern Ukraine. In many ways, Crimea is a special case," said Susan Stewart from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in an interview with DW.

http://www.dw.de/crimea-scenario-in-eastern-ukraine-is-unlikely/a-17553454?maca=en-rss-en-eu-2092-rdf