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Related: About this forumMore than 20 million Americans lost their jobs in April as unemployment rate climbs up 15%
sandensea
(21,630 posts)Of course though, the country had 50 million fewer folks back then.
progree
(10,907 posts)Employment to population ratio:
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
Lowest seems to be 54.9% in October 1949, until now (51.3%)
sandensea
(21,630 posts)Thank you for that clarification. I wish more people would know that.
Proof positive that whatever its merits, the Paycheck Protection Program means little when left to the likes of Orange Amin to administer.
"I am the oversight."
progree
(10,907 posts)it's just a sample in April for pay periods that included the 12th and compared to the previous sample period in March for pay periods that included the 12th. From the Establishment Survey.
Since the end of most of the April 12th pay periods, through the end of April, more jobs were lost.
The unemployment rate comes from a different survey, the Household Survey. They have a sample week April 12-18.
Since then, through the end of April, more jobs were lost.
Whatever.
According to the reports, April had the lowest employment to population ratio in the history of the series (which starts in 1948)
The Bureau of Labor Statistics says:
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Labor force participation rate:
. . . http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Employment to population ratio:
. . . http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000
. . . Lowest seems to be 54.9% in October 1949, until now (51.3%)
Of course the unemployment rate is also the lowest in the history of its series, also going back to 1948, but everyone knows that (Trump beats Reagan, the previous post-WWII record holder, who peaked out at a mere 10.8%):
the largest over-the-month increase in the history of the series (seasonally adjusted data are available back to
January 1948).
and as I said above, this and other numbers are really worse at the end of April because these numbers (unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment to population ratio), all come from the Household Survey, whose sample week was April 12 - 18.
Oops, I forgot to add that the unemployment rate is also almost 5 percentage points under-reported:
force based on their answers to a series of questions about their activities during the survey
reference week (April 12th through April 18th). Workers who indicate they were not working during
the entire survey reference week and expect to be recalled to their jobs should be classified as
unemployed on temporary layoff. In April, there was an extremely large increase in the number of
persons classified as unemployed on temporary layoff.
However, there was also a large increase in the number of workers who were classified as employed
but absent from work. As was the case in March, special instructions sent to household survey
interviewers called for all employed persons absent from work due to coronavirus-related business
closures to be classified as unemployed on temporary layoff. However, it is apparent that not all
such workers were so classified.
If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over
and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical April) had been classified as unemployed
on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been almost 5 percentage points higher
than reported (on a not seasonally adjusted basis). However, according to usual practice, the data
from the household survey are accepted as recorded. To maintain data integrity, no ad hoc actions
are taken to reclassify survey responses.
5% on top of 14.7% puts it in round-off territory of 20%.
Remembering too that the survey week, April 12-18, is more than 3 weeks ago ... there's been a lot of layoffs since then according to the weekly unemployment claims reports.
Edited to add:
Why the unemployment rate could be 5 percentage points higher, Ethan Wolff-Mann, Yahoo Finance, May 8, 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-unemployment-rate-could-be-5-percentage-points-higher-135352226.html
for a more "newsie" report of the same thing.
Shorter less wonky version with all the main points of the above: https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=13423980