although in the short term, it certainly looks like one.
I don't think we can tell what long term effect our occupation will have. Short term, their educated and technical people are leaving. Long term, if the country is actually being run well (for Afghanistan), they could easily with to go home. In a lot of the country, they've been exposed to new things, like reliable electricity between Taliban sabotage operations. They are going to want things like that back. The only way the Taliban can deliver is to moderate enough for people to want to come home.
We raised a lot of expectations over there and if the Taliban can't deliver, they are not going to survive long term. I have no idea what will happen over there. I just know that's another genie nobody's going to be able to stuff back into a bottle.
I just hope this debacle starts to convince the State Dept and the military that occupying a country, any country, for any reason, is a fool's errand, that the people who live there can always outwait us.