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Quixote1818

(31,122 posts)
Mon Oct 24, 2022, 08:21 PM Oct 2022

Full Panel: Record High Enthusiasm Could Lead To Surprise Wins And Losses 'Across The Board'

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Full Panel: Record High Enthusiasm Could Lead To Surprise Wins And Losses 'Across The Board' (Original Post) Quixote1818 Oct 2022 OP
Republicans have some problems bucolic_frolic Oct 2022 #1
I Agree 100% Bucolic. I Expect Dems To Win Most Seats That Are R+5 or Less Indykatie Oct 2022 #2
A contrarian view, to examine the unexpected bucolic_frolic Oct 2022 #3

bucolic_frolic

(54,068 posts)
1. Republicans have some problems
Mon Oct 24, 2022, 08:36 PM
Oct 2022

A large % of people already voted. They're not measured in "momentum" at this point. Large turnout was what we did in Georgia's 2 Senate races. We won them both. A tiny % of Republican voters died from covid. It's not much, but 700-1500 votes could determine the House, here or there. These discussions on MSM are portraying a tightening race, which is what networks do to get more eyeballs and hopefully encourage more people to vote. We can't say we weren't informed. But the issue of women has faded from their lips, even though it's still there. Recall 2018. We pulled out every race on the margin. Slow counts and hand counts, the House races fell our way. But Republicans didn't vote that year. Now? Who is voting? Are Democrats awake? Is our ground game in high gear? It's been 10 years in the making. It was supposed to elect Al Gore. And John Kerry.

And I will make this observation. Republicans voted in 2020. Some ticket split to defeat Trump, but Republicans did well in House races. I don't think Republicans have much gas in the tank. They can't deliver better than 2020. They don't have the horses - legions of new voters, or legions of previous non-voters. This large turnout doesn't favor Republicans, I don't think. What Independents do, who knows, but Democrats will vote in large, large numbers.

Indykatie

(3,866 posts)
2. I Agree 100% Bucolic. I Expect Dems To Win Most Seats That Are R+5 or Less
Mon Oct 24, 2022, 11:55 PM
Oct 2022

Pollsters are vastly underestimating what turn-out and the gender split will be on 11/8. I saw one poll that had a 50/50 female-male split. There has NEVER been a election where women did not vote in higher numbers than me. Pollsters should use the 2018 or 2020 gender split and ADD 3 points at least to accommodate the Dobbs effect. None of them seem to understand that the % of women voting on 11/8 will be higher than anything we've before.

bucolic_frolic

(54,068 posts)
3. A contrarian view, to examine the unexpected
Tue Oct 25, 2022, 06:01 AM
Oct 2022

Is that Democrats turn out in numbers but not quite 2020 numbers, Independents split, and Republicans turn out fairly well so that nothing much changes. This would set up 2024 as the Wave Election. It is a possible scenario.

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