30 Dec: More than 40 Russian Object on Fire, 10 in Moscow Since October - Reporting from Ukraine

[TexasTowelie]

Day 310: December 30

Today a Russian oil tanker was caught on fire in the harbor near St. Petersburg. Massive fires seem to have become almost an everyday occurrence in Russia. Two days ago, locals in Novosibirsk reported hearing several explosions, which seem to have started a fire that burned down 2 000 square meters of the ground. Four days ago, in Kuban, a big shopping mall caught on fire, burning down two floors and 1 000 square meters of ground. The same day a military supply depot in Murmansk suffered the same fate.

The conclusions of the Russian official converge on one explanation – sabotage. In fact, these fires became such a huge problem that the Kremlin itself started taking action. Yesterday Russian President Putin signed a supplement to the Russian Criminal Code that allows Russian authorities to sentence Russians to up to life imprisonment for “assistance to subversive activities” or for “undergoing training for the purpose of carrying out sabotage activities” and for “organizing a sabotage community” and between 5- and 10-years imprisonment for “participation in such a community.”

The increased number of incidents in different parts of the country, given the ongoing war in Ukraine and intermittent sabotage by the Ukrainian special services, gave rise to certain suspicions of a direct connection between the events. Some Russian sources increasingly circulate information that the Ukrainians have recruited a lot of Russian residents to participate in sabotage. Recently the Head of the Ukrainian Secret Services indirectly confirmed these claims and stated that they have a huge number of men and women operators on the territory of the Russian Federation. He said that these are trained and sophisticated agents who have, in many cases, even undergone plastic surgery and changed their identity. It seems like this interview, to a large extent, amplified the panic in the Russian media space.

And no wonder because over the last three months, there were more than 40 large-scale fires on trading, industrial and military objects in Russia, and 10 of them happened in only Moscow. This map is slightly outdated, so it shows fewer cases. A prominent Russian source tried to compare the number of fires to the last year and concluded that there was only a 25% increase in accidents, which in their estimation, is insignificant. However, it is unclear how they picked the data for the last year. The data generation process and conclusions beg some questions because the square area of fires has increased by 264%. And such a high concentration of fires in Moscow and the regions close to Ukraine might suggest that this is not due to typical Russian neglect of fire safety measures.

In addition, the current situation in the regions bordering Ukraine leaves many Russians upset. The Russians have significant gaps in the organization of defense due to bureaucratic delays or ordinary human stupidity, which can be used by sabotage and reconnaissance groups for sabotage in the deep Russian rear.

Even though Ukrainian officials are formally denying that Ukraine has anything to do with all the accidents that are happening inside Russia, they still leave the door for speculations open, and it looks like it is a smart move. The slow realization that the Ukrainians could hit the deep Russian rear with drones played a huge role in the recent missile strike. The realization that there are enough gaps in the organization of the Russian army and state administration may cause even more paranoia, leading to serious problems for the Russians.