Why losing Crimea could trigger Putin's assassination by domestic rivals:
Empress Catherine the Great (originally a prussian princess married to the czar) tried to reform Russia and make it more european. One of her steps was a huge propaganda-campaign, aiming to give Russia some sort of historic legitimacy and continuity by linking it to Ancient Europe.
The claims:
1. The Orthodox Church came from the Byzantine Empire to Russia when a kievo-russian prince married a byzantine princess.
2. The Byzantine Empire is a historical successor of Ancient Greece.
3. Religious continuity means historic continuity.
Making Russia the legitimate successor of Ancient Greece...
In 1783, Catherine the Great annexed Crimea. Without bloodshed. And Crimea had Ancient Greek ruins.
This was a historical event in Russia's imperial self-image: The blood-less conquest of territory from Russia's (supposed) golden ancient past.
Under Stalin, this historical revisionism was amplified. The architecture of new buildings was more mediterranean, with pillars, balconies and terraces, not suited for a russian winter.
There was this tiny problem that Crimea's indigenous population were Tartars from Asia, not Greeks. So Stalin deported them by the hundreds of thousands.
In 2014, Putin repeated this crucial moment of Russia's imperial history from 1783:
He occupied Crimea.
WITHOUT BLOODSHED.
Turning himself into a historic equal to Empress Catherine the Great and returning this supposed ancient russian homeland back to russian control.
Ironically, Putin then used this pro-european russian myth of Crimea to bolster anti-european russian nationalism.
Russia losing Crimea to Ukraine would be an attack on Russia's self-image as a historically legitimate empire, and it would be an attack on Putin himself, because he would go down in russian history as the "czar" who lost this ancient greeco-russian utopia. Losing Crimea would be of minor consequence for the overall Ukraine-war, but it would a HISTORIC SHAME for Putin himself.
There would be two possible outcomes of Russia losing Crimea:
1. Putin uses this loss of "Russia's homeland" as an excuse to increase his totalitarian control of russian society, further cementing this myth that the West is trying to destroy Russia as a whole.
2. Putin should avoid drinking tea and walking by windows, because the man who lost Crimea CANNOT be allowed to remain as Russia's leader in the eyes of russian nationalists...........................................
= new reply since forum marked as read
Catherine the Great annexed Crimea after defeating the Ottoman Empire, which had frequently raided Russia for slave labor while controlling the area. So it wasn't actually bloodless--unless you count a brief period of failed treaties, etc. following the defeat. This from my Wikipedia review of Crimean history. I think Crimea's access to the Black Sea is what makes it so fought-over--and I'm glad I don't live there! It's been occupied by all kinds of evil forces (including Nazi Germany), subject to the "Red Terror" mass murder during the Bolshevik Revolution in which anti-Bolshevik's were slaughtered, and never really left alone. After the USSR crumbled, Crimea eventually became independent-ish in 1992, then merged with and becoming part of Ukraine in 1995. Even then, a treaty allowed Russia to continue using a Black Sea port for their navy.
It seems like a stressful place to live. Once it's liberated from Russia and is part of NATO, maybe peace will finally come. If it results in Putin tripping and falling out of a window or drinking some special tea, the whole process would be sped along 
I seriously hope the Repukes don't fuck with this arc of history bending towards justice.....
