Fantasy Football time again

[Hawaii Hiker]

So what are your typical strategy, load up on RB's in early rounds, do you not pick QB til later rounds etc?..

Whether its right or wrong, I tend to go with the load up on RB's since many teams go RB by committee and there aren't alot of RB's who see the bulk of the carries.....I'm not in PPR leagues either.....

Imagine if you had your draft Saturday afternoon and selected Andrew Luck and Lamar Miller!..

[qazplm135]

1. I've done three out of five drafts this year

two PPR one standard and my plan is the same...to start.

1. Draft at least 2 RBs in the first three rounds. I did this in two out of my three leagues.
2. Try to pair those 2 RBs with an elite WR. So that was Hill in one league and Jones in another.
3. Be willing to adjust. In my third league (PPR), I drafted Hopkins first round, and then was faced with Hill still sitting there in the second round. With that being the case, I adjusted and went WR-WR, but then followed that up with three RBs in a row (Freeman, White and Miller (thankfully I also drafted Duke Johnson)).
4. Wait on QB until at least the 7th round. You can still get guys like Ryan, Wentz which I did in two leagues.
5. Having said that if someone like Watson falls to the 6th round, like he did in my third league, you take him.
6. Ignore the big three TEs and go for the second tier TEs like Engram, Howard, Henry or even Cook. not that far off in value but you get them way later 7-9th round.
7. For the love of all that's holy wait on kicker and defense until the last three rounds.

In the case of standard, yes RBs are important...and in my one standard league I was going to go RB-RB-RB, but when Julio Jones is still sitting there towards the end of the 2nd round you take him, and I still got Damien Williams and Aaron Jones and Chris Carson to go with McCaffrey (and also still got Duke Johnson). There's a lot of RB talent out there so if you can get a lot and at least one elite WR you do it.

The more teams you are drafting the more you have to adjust your strategy though. Two of these leagues were 10 team and one was 12 team. You are going to get good quality automatically if you follow the above in those leagues. But if you get to 14 or 16 person teams or more, I think you have to adjust and try to get one elite player at each position. Everyone is going to have holes in those bigger leagues. There aren't enough players to hoard RBs say and have anything decent at the other positions. I'd argue that instead maybe your first four picks should be prime RB, prime WR, prime TE and prime QB in that order. Then you mix in RBs and WRs the rest of the way and go cheap on backup TE/QB and stream kickers and defense.

For my bonafides I play in five leagues a year 2 of which switch up each year and I have averaged two championships a year and usually make the playoffs in 4/5 leagues (if not all of them) each year. Of course, the other half of that is playing the waiver wire. I'm consistently the guy who makes the most waiver wire moves in my leagues each year.

[mr_lebowski]

3. Good advice!

"Damien Williams and Aaron Jones and Chris Carson to go with McCaffrey"

That's a very very nice RB stable, I'd be stoked with that.

[qazplm135]

4. yes I am and I also got Wentz at QB

and Howard at TE and Lamar Jackson at backup QB. Now, the rest of my WRs are middling: Lockett, Ridley, and Watkins...but you cannot draft strong everywhere, somewhere has to take a hit, and for me that is usually at defense and WR...because in both cases I feel like there are waiver wire options that I can find in the season...heck, look at Ridley from last season as a prime example...or Lockett for that matter or heck Watkins too. All were waiver wire warriors in the season.

But even if I lose two starting running backs (which believe me has happened to me before see e.g. losing Cook and D. Johnson in back to back weeks two years ago), I still have two starting running backs left. Really three if you count Duke Johnson now. And one of those guys can be trade bait for an upgrade on Ridley perhaps a few weeks into the season.

[mr_lebowski]

2. We don't have our draft til like the day before the regular season for that very reason ...

I'm in a 10-team PPR, my youngest bro is commish and my middle bro is also in the league. We have tons of bonuses in our league like extra points for 100+yard, 150+yard, 200+ yard rushing/receiving, 300+ yards passing, etc. As such, we usually have at least 1 player at >200 pts every week, sometimes 2 or 3.

If I end up top 5 I will for sure take either Zeke, Barkley, Bell, McCaffery, or Kamara ... if I'm 6-8 I have to seriously consider Davante Adams, Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins though, and hope DJ, Gurley, or Mixon is still there when I pick next. Though if Julio or Odell was still there, that'd be tough. Third player is likely to be a RB (for sure if I went WR-WR) but would still depend who's there. I'd like to grab my boy Josh Jacobs for sure, think he's gonna be a badass and I think he'll stay on the board til the 3rd.

I usually don't do QB til everyone else starts picking them. I won't be reaching for Mahomes, I'll leave him to someone else who wants to spend their 2nd rounder on him. In a 1 QB starting league w/10 people, there's almost always a top 10 QB still around in the 6th or 7th.

Good luck this season!

[qazplm135]

5. in one of my drafts Mahomes was the number one player off the board

it was crazy. I was spending the whole time worried I'd have to make the do I draft Elliott decision from pick four, and then Mahomes bumps everyone down and I get McCaffery. Which reminds me...pick up Tony Pollard in the 10th or 11th round. If Elliott holds out, Pollard is playing behind a top three oline in a good offense on a team with a decent defense. He's going to at least be a RB2 while Zeke holds out, if not a low end RB1.

Which is crazy because Mahomes probably isn't going until the third round so this guy wasted a pick on him there when he could have gotten him as his second/third pick at the turn.

[mr_lebowski]

8. It does make SOME sense given Mahomes monster year, but I wouldn't do it ...

Esp. since he'll be w/o Hunt and they've not really upgraded at WR to speak of. Williams looked solid last year but is still a bit of a question mark, and there's not much behind him. If Kelce or Hill went down I think it could hurt Mahomes quite a bit. I suppose that's true of most QB's though ...

G/L this season!

[qazplm135]

9. I dunno not first overall though

and the gap between him and the next few QBs is way smaller than the gap between the RB you can get in first position (let's assume it's Barkley and the running back you can get at the end of the 2nd round...not to mention at ADP he could have had Barkley AND Mahomes if he wanted.

[mr_lebowski]

11. Agree ... s/he must've been convinced PM would be gone by 20, which is a possibility ...

And REALLY wanted Mahomes lol ... Like I said, I wouldn't. I'd take Barkley in a heartbeat.

[Hawaii Hiker]

6. Good luck to you as well...

I'm in 8 team and 12 team leagues.....Now everybody is loaded in 8 team league, but the 12 team draft (which is 9/3) presents a challenge....

I'm struggling about Todd Gurley because there's good chance he'll be there at #10, when i pick.....This guy has been Mr Fantasy last 2 years, but his health is a major ?....In the 2nd round, good chance Fournette and Jacobs will be there....Oakland did improve their team with 2 WR's, major OL signing, so Jacobs "Could" have a monster season.....

And always, always select Defense and Kickers with the last 2 picks.....

[mr_lebowski]

7. Yah, Gurley is a tough one ... I'll be checking the news on him regularly as he's a potential steal

for health reasons. Rams haven't let on much, kinda frustrating. When you're 10 you gotta be careful, you get the 10 & 11 but don't go again til 30-31 ... A LOT of talent goes by. I like being 4-8 preferably.

[qazplm135]

10. I would probably take these running backs ahead of Gurley

Barkley, Kamara, McCaffery, Johnson, Chubb, Cook, Conner, Bell, and Elliott (I'd draft Pollard to cover down on this choice).

So IMO, at pick ten, given that at a minimum I would expect Adams and/or Hopkins to be picked before you, you should have possibly Conner or Cook available or maybe even Bell or Chubb.

I'd consider taking Aaron Jones, Mixon, Fournette, Kerryon Johnson, and even Freeman or Damien Williams ahead of Gurley.

I don't think you can trust that Gurley will a. be there the whole season b. won't see his reps reduced to save him for the playoffs and stretch run.

In a 12 team league and looking for two RBs to start, I bet you could easily go Conner or Bell first round, and come back with either someone like Cook second round, or if your league goes running back heavy to start you could get a Julio or Smith-Schuster or Tyreek Hill in the second and then follow it up with an Aaron Jones or Damien Williams in the third.

[Hawaii Hiker]

12. Normally I'd never take a WR first

but I would be tempted if Hopkins is there....I mean, the guy puts up #'s and has been healthy (now watch me jinx him)..
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HopkDe00.htm

When it gets to be rounds 5-7 or so, and your're on the clock with your 30 seconds and you have no idea to take that can be really frustrating....One time I'd just kept dilly dallying and the computer ended up selecting DeSean Jackson since i didn't make a selection in time....

[qazplm135]

13. agreed...if someone like Hopkins slips, you take him

and then follow him up with a RB and then I'd probably go RB in the third round as well...maybe even one more in the fourth and then follow up with a WR in the fifth (either way works so long as you end up with 3 RBs and 2 WRs to start). So that's 1-5. You can get pretty good RBs in the fifth round or receivers for that matter.

I think you identify the top 2-3 remaining QBs in the 6th and 7th round and then take one of them there. And I think you look at a mid tier TE like Howard, Henry, Engram or even Cook in that same area.

Then when round 8 hits, you go back to RBs and WRs for at least 2-3 more rounds...then fill out with backups at TE and QB and your defense and kicker.

You can skip backup TE maybe if you got a Howard/Henry/Engram though.

[mr_lebowski]

16. Totally agree with this 'lineup' of choices ...

Though I'd definitely have to consider Kelce or Mahomes late 3rd if there ... Ertz probably I'd take early 4th, Watson I'd likely take late 4th.

[qazplm135]

20. I'm never taking a TE in the first three rounds

but I agree if Mahomes is there very late 3d, it's awfully tempting, and if he's there in the fourth you HAVE to take him I think at that point.

[mr_lebowski]

14. Well-reasoned, but what sticks in my mind (probably bad to do this in fantasy, but ...)

In 2017 I was picking like 22 and was looking at Amari Cooper and Gurley (after 2016 people were down on Gurley that year, and Coop had a very good year and Raiders made the playoffs, Carr looked fantastic) and I freaking chose Coop (homer that I am) ... the next pick was Gurley, and that guy won the league. I mean I basically screwed the whole league cause he'd also gotten like McCaffery and Kamara ... lol ... he wrecked shop the whole year. I placed last. If I'd had Gurley, I'd have made the playoffs.

[qazplm135]

15. it's art mixed with science and luck :)

I never feel down that I made a wrong pick or two...but that's why the waiver wires are so important.

I just looked back at a team I won a league with in 2017...and the team I drafted ended up straight garbage.
I mean straight...garbage.

But then I looked at who I picked up on the waiver wire and I was like, yep, there's how I won.

[mr_lebowski]

17. Last year I missed the playoffs by, I shit you not .6 points ... to a wingnut, I might add ..

And this is a league where 1600 pts is not uncommon due to bonuses. Last game of the season, MNF ... and his FUCKING KICKER beat me ... with the last FG of the game. I was so freaking bitter. I'd have won the next week too, the guy that beat me got crushed and ended up 6th, but I'd have beaten his opponent and ended up 4th.

Anyways, my team was also fairly bad (Garapollo was my first QB picked, late), but I grabbed Chubb and Tyler Boyd off the WW ... and they are pretty much the entire reason I was so close. Won my consolation round and ended up 7th, and beat both my bros on the season (first time I ever beat 'em both) so there was that at least lol ...

What was REALLY sucky is that the last weekend IIRC Nick Chubb ended up with like 98 yards ... and if he's gotten 2 more lousy yards ... 2 point bonus for 100yd game ... and I win and make the P.O.'s

[Hawaii Hiker]

18. I lost a fantasy playoff game once after a Wes Welker TD was called back

it was the correct call as he never crossed the goal line, hence the cliche it's a game of inches...

[qazplm135]

19. my closest game

involved Manning and Dallas Clark on MNF.

I need something like 4-5 yards from Clark to win, but it was at the end of the fourth quarter and Indy was up a ton.

I knew there was no way Indy was going to pass anymore on the last series so I turned off the TV and went upstairs to run on the treadmill.

I decided to go ahead and watch the rest of the game anyways on the treadmill and it was like second or third down and there wasn't even a minute left in the game.

I see Manning drop back and I go...what? Wait a minute, are you kidding me?
He throws the ball and there is Clark wide open for a 10 yard game. I about fell off the treadmill!

Another similar story was I need three more points from a defense in the fourth quarter to win. They were down to the last couple of plays. You basically needed a strip sack fumble, or a sack and a turnover. And what happened? Next to last play sack...last play interception.

Crazy how much luck is involved.

[Hawaii Hiker]

21. One time someone in the league lost a game because the Eagles scored a defensive TD

off an LA Rams last second desperation play..0:00 on the clock when the Eagles scored

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201712100ram.htm

[Iggo]

22. Are you in my league?