California
Related: About this forumNOAA: El Nino Forecast / Winter 2018 - 2019 (70% chance -- but there's a catch)
Last edited Mon Aug 20, 2018, 06:59 PM - Edit history (1)
At least according to this site ...Winter weather during the 2018 2019 season will be largely effected by the development of an El Niño trend. With NOAA predicting a 70% chance of an El Niño conditions for January, February and March the question turns to how strong of an El Niño event are we in for?
In case you havent heard, there is now a 70% chance of an El Niño this winter. Having a confident prediction of El Niño this far ahead is quite a feat for the seasonal forecasting community. One reason ENSO is predictable six to nine months ahead of time is the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the related Pacific Meridional Mode.
But, these precursors are unable to answer another critical question about El Niño: What will be the flavor of the El Niño event i.e., a stronger, Eastern Pacific (EP) type or a weaker, Central Pacific (CP) event? For that, I contend, you have to look to the South Pacific, a region that has received little attention in past ENSO studies. And the South Pacific suggests, if an El Niño forms this year, it will be a weak or CP event.
MORE: https://unofficialnetworks.com/2018/07/30/noaa-el-nino-forecast-outlook-for-winter-2018-2019/
Don't count your chickens quite yet. I read about this today (8-20-18) from another source and had great hopes for a wet California winter, but I guess the jury is still out. Cross your fingers ...
4139
(1,893 posts)Regular El Niño rainfall
El Niño Modoki rainfall
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en
Auggie
(31,173 posts)Perhaps painful. Perhaps catastrophic.
BigmanPigman
(51,608 posts)but the following winter was worse than that one was by far! The winter of 2016 gave us about one year's rain in about two weeks and it kept raining. Then this past winter back to drought rain totals. I don't know how they can predict any weather given the unknowns related to Climate Change. We know that the weather will be filled with extremes and weather patterns that stay in place for a longer period of time before moving through. I am grateful to the other counties who are sharing their research info with us since one of the first things the fake prez did when in office was to lay off staff, severely limit research and stop info from being released to the public. He is pure evil!
Auggie
(31,173 posts)I was thinking about it earlier.
Climate change could -- or will -- rewrite the paradigms of weather forecasting. There's no guarantee that El Niños of the future will behave as El Niños of the past, or any other weather pattern for that matter.