18 percent of ballots have been returned.... only

[IcyPeas]

I hope people aren't sitting this out. Some polls have Elder very close, this poll tracker tells a different story. I don't know what to believe at this point.

Blasting past 4 million ballots cast.

We have looked a lot at the partisanship of the ballots returned, but what’s most striking now is the gulf in turnout based on age.

In total, a third of Seniors have voted. Those ballots are coming in at 55% Dem, 28% Rep, and 17% Independent/Other.

Among 18-34, we are still in single-digits, at just 9% turnout. Those voters are 56% Dem, only 15% Rep, and 29% Independent/Other.

This 18-34 age group, with more than 6-million voters (none of whom was eligible to vote in the 2003 recall) is the largest age grouping on the file. Yet they are the lowest turnout, by a lot. We can see on the second page of the tracker that turnout by seniors is waning, but they are still 41% of the votes cast even though they are just 23% of registered voters.

This segment of young voters, with that 40-point Democratic advantage, is going to clearly be the most critical parts of the electorate for the No side to turnout in these last two weeks.

To see it all, get the PDF here: https://www.dropbox.com/t/mswiExeEQyaPkd0n

If you’re forwarding this to others, they can subscribe to receive these morning updates here: https://www.politicaldata.com/2021-election-tracker-email-signup/

Thanks,

Paul

[CaliforniaPeggy]

1. It's still quite early. I think as the month progresses and the word gets out, people will respond.

[jimfields33]

8. 2 weeks from today.

Not a lot of time.

[quaint]

9. In-person dropoff and in-person voting opens September 4th in Orange County.

In-person voters can receive language and disability assistance.
Maybe increase the percentages.

[jimfields33]

11. Cool. Hope everyone does this.

[wyn borkins]

2. Odd Link

Now I'm thinking you might NOT know your PDF link doesn't go to an actual PDF, but it does go somewhere else...somewhere I dared NOT to tread (!)

[IcyPeas]

3. it goes to the dropbox account. you can open it from there

it's safe, I've been looking there daily.

Paul Mitchell is the polster's name, it's not the Hair Product guy

[wyn borkins]

5. Thank You

I will download and save that PDF onto my new Lexar Pro 128 GB SD card...

[IcyPeas]

6. LOL

Touché

[CrispyQ]

4. This 24 minute interview with Newsom is outstanding!

He's an excellent communicator & makes so many good points.

https://democraticunderground.com/1017678169

[StatWoman]

7. I'm not voting until I know who the legal write-ins are

This "leave the second question blank" thing doesn't work for me.

[quaint]

10. It's not a write in. Just check a box...or not

https://elections.cdn.sos.ca.gov/statewide-elections/2021-recall/certified-list.pdf

[StatWoman]

12. You can also write in a candidate -- but they won't be counted unless they are pre-certified.

I'm not a fan of any of the Democratic choices, but I sure as hell am not voting for a Republican! (I'm not interested in spending the next year and some months praying for Senator Feinstein's health.)

We will be told who the valid write-in candidates are within a week, so I'll vote then.

Hopefully we will win the recall election and it will be moot. But, as Molly Ivins used to remind us, "Hope is not a plan."

[Brother Buzz]

13. The list of certified write-in candidates will be released 03 Sept

The "Leave the second part blank" thing doesn't work for me either.

FWIW: Gavin Newsom's name will NOT be on the list.

"As the subject of the recall cannot be a candidate, a write-in vote for Newsom would not be counted," a spokesperson for the Secretary of State’s office said in an email. "Only certified write-in candidates are counted."

State law prohibits the subject of a recall — like Newsom — from being listed on the second half of the ballot at all. It states: "No person whose recall is being sought may be a candidate to succeed himself or herself at a recall election."

[StatWoman]

14. I'm looking forward to it!

I've seen people encouraging a Newsom write-in, but that's just throwing your vote away.

I wish Lt. Gov. Kounalakis had been on the official list, but after the Bustamonte fiasco, I understand why she didn't. She probably won't be a certified write-in either.