Really good analysis of Reynolds 12-point program at Iowa Fiscal Partnership

[rurallib]

By Peter Fisher
http://www.iowafiscal.org/covid-metrics-arbitrary-backward-facing/

excerpt:

One of those projections, by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) of the University of Washington and updated April 5, shows the wide range of possibilities. They predict a peak day of April 26, with Iowa needing between 53 and 438 ICU beds, and 150 as the best estimate, compared to 246 available beds. They predict a need for between 42 and 367 ventilators, and a peak of 17 deaths per day (with a range of 0 to 100), with 263 to 711 total deaths in the state by August.[2] These predictions assume that Iowa takes more serious measures in seven days — a stay-at-home order and mandatory closure of all nonessential businesses. If the governor still sees no need for further restrictions by then, the situation could be worse.

So what is the Governor relying on that leads her to believe that halfway measures are adequate to protect our health care workers and our citizens, and to prevent such shortages? The “metrics” and “data,” referred to repeatedly but vaguely in press briefings, became clear to the public only on Wednesday, when the “Guidelines for Implementing Public Health Mitigation Measures” were obtained by the Iowa City Press-Citizen. While we now know something of how the guidelines work, much remains a mystery. We do not know why this scoring system was adopted, who developed it, what science is behind the measures and the scores, whether any other state or country has used anything like it, or whether it was vetted by any qualified epidemiologists at Iowa universities or hospitals. The matrix cannot be found anywhere on the IDPH website, and the underlying data have not been released despite repeated requests by members of the media and others.

What we do know is that the application of the model does not give much hope to the many groups pressing the governor for more aggressive measures, most recently the Iowa Board of Medicine.[3] Suppose you live in the southeast portion of Iowa, where the overall incidence of COVID-19 is the highest in the state. Even there you are not going to get a shelter-in-place order from the governor anytime soon, as long as she is wedded to the IDPH matrix.

[bubbazero]

1. OK, Govenor answer the following questions:

1. Where did this come from--who thought up this matrix and under what fields of science were 'they' attributing the validity of this model. (and it better not be political science) 2. Who told you to use this---surely not the medical experts 3.Who provided that reason's WHY--WHY are you using this 4.Do you, Gov Kim Reynolds, have ANY knowledge of statistical analysis at all, have you asked for any, do you even have a CLUE as to what STANDARD DEVIATION means, and how it's calculated? In short Gov Reynolds, YOU OWE that people of Iowa the 5W'sH WHO...WHAT..WHEN...WHERE...WHY..and HOW--or HOW MUCH!

[rurallib]

2. State Auditor Rob Sand has been asking similar questions and getting no answers

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2020/04/07/coronavirus-in-iowa-auditor-rob-sand-questions-governor-kim-reynolds-covid-19-assessment/2961352001/

Sand's news release said he has asked the governor for more information twice since Thursday. In a copy of a letter dated Saturday, Sand asked the governor a dozen questions about the science behind the metric. The letter requested the governor supply responses to the public by noon Monday.

"Whether we in Iowa's capitol are acting on valid, predictive data and science to contain this pandemic affects the rest of our state, our nation, and our world," Sand wrote. "As I wrote to you earlier, trusting Iowans with basic information helps them make better-informed decisions about their actions, which leads to a better outcome for both our health and our economy."

Questions include whether other states are using a similar tool, whether such a tool has been used before, how and by whom the tool was created, whether any other tools were evaluated and how many Iowans would need to be infected, hospitalized and die before any region reaches a trigger. The letter also questions specific aspects of the tool, such as why only long-term care outbreaks are considered and not other large gatherings of people, like factory workers or health care workers.

About one-in-five of Iowa's positive coronavirus cases are health care workers, the state said Tuesday.

Lots, lots more at the link