Backlash to Trumpism Brewing in the Border Region of the US

[Gothmog]

There are a large number of real democrats who are working to turn Texas blue. One key to this is to get Hispanic voters to vote and increase Hispanic turnout. If Hispanic Voters in Texas voted in the same percentages as in California, Texas would be blue. Trump's ICE has been conducting raids and arresting anyone who is too brown. This is causing a backlash that may help turn Texas blue. https://medium.com/@Simon_Rosenberg/backlash-to-trumpism-brewing-in-the-border-region-of-the-us-b7db4fe53e4

Digging a little deeper into 2016, Clinton lost far less ground in heavily Hispanics states like CO, FL and NV in the Presidential battleground than she did in the northern states, and she even managed to hold on and win CO and NV. Clinton only lost Arizona by 3.5 pts, a closer margin than GA, IA, NC and OH, making Arizona an official part of the national Presidential battleground for the first time in decades.....

Notable is the President’s strength in Ohio and Iowa, but what is perhaps most striking about this data was how low Trump’s numbers were in Arizona, Florida and of course Texas. That the second largest state in the country was now acting like a battleground state and not a safe Red confirms that something indeed is up in the border region of the US.

In recent weeks we’ve gotten some early polling from statewide races in the region which also finds GOP erosion (data is from Real Clear Politics). In Arizona we find Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema leading all three of her potential GOP opponents in the Flake open Senate seat by at least 6 points, receiving at least 48% in each match up. In Nevada, incumbent GOPer Dean Heller is in a dead even race against Democratic Rep. Jacky Rosen, 40%-39%. Remarkably, in Texas, Ted Cruz leads his largely unknown opponent, Beto O’Rourke, by just 3 points, 47%-44%. In Florida, incumbent Democrat Senator Bill Nelson leads the two-time elected Governor, Rick Scott, by 4 in each of two recent polls — 46% to 42% and 44% to 40%.

Even the popular Republican governor of Texas, Greg Abbott, only checked in at 49–40% and 48–41% against two relatively unknown Democratic opponents in that same Texas poll. Abbott won 2014 by 21 points and is now up 8; Cruz and won in 2012 by 16 and is now up 3. While just one poll, these findings are consistent with other data showing a significant structural shift in Texas towards the Democrats of at least 7 points, and perhaps even more.

If Lupe Valdez or Andrew White are within 7% to 9% of Greg Abbott at this stage, then Texas may be a battleground state.

In addition to the trump's ICE raids, the Texas Democratic Party plans to use the Texas "show me your papers" law as an issue. Dan Patrick and Greg Abbott have been doing their best to alienated Hispanic voters and these efforts together with trump's ICE raids may be working

[Vogon_Glory]

1. I dearly hope you're right, but I've been so deeply disappointed in the past

that I’ve almost given up hope about Mexican-Americans in Texas coming out to vote. I feel so disappointed that I’ll only believe it when I see it.

I do NOT understand their non-voting mindset. I admit that I come from a privileged Anglo background and that my family has always been interested in politics, howbeit not hyper-active.

Maybe it’s because I was bullied as a kid, maybe it’s because I don’t like being kicked in the teeth and resent people who do that to me, but when someone talks trash about me or does me and my friends and family wrong, I’ll vote to fire the little (adjective) (epithet). I do NOT roll over and go back to sleep. I do not understand a people who respond to the Tea-Trump-publican cr*p by rolling over and playing dead, particularly when their old-Country cousins would be out in the streets and raising Hell if they were treated that way.