Rachel Bitecofer Prediction: Democrats could flip nine Texas districts in 2020
Texas could be a focal point for the 2020 elections — even if the state doesn’t support a Democrat over Republican President Donald Trump.
That’s the prediction of political scientist Rachel Bitecofer, whose analysis in 2018 was correct — that Democrats would flip significantly more congressional districts than others predicted. Especially since a lengthy interview with Salon.com in mid-August, her forecasting is gaining attention.
Bitecofer is the assistant director of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia.
She has predicted the Democratic presidential candidate will get at least 278 electoral votes in 2020 — eight more than the 270 needed to win. And that’s without Texas’ 38 electoral votes.
Read more: https://www.news-journal.com/opinion/mcneely-prediction-democrats-could-flip-nine-texas-districts-in/article_90455e1a-c9f7-11e9-9153-6ba25f58705d.html
(Longview News-Journal)
The specific districts that could flip are listed at the link.
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The 22nd, from Houston southwest, where Pete Olson is retiring.
The 23rd, which stretches from San Antonio to El Paso, where incumbent Will Hurd is retiring.
And the 24th, Dallas north, where Kenny Marchant is retiring.
The three other districts the committee is targeting, in growing suburban areas, are:
The 10th, which stretches from Austin to the outskirt of Houston, represented by Michael McCaul.
The 21st, from Austin to San Antonio and west for six counties, held by freshman Republican Chip Roy.
And the 31st, represented for years by Republican John Carter.
But Bitecofer also thinks Democrats could flip three districts that aren’t on the committee’ hit list:
The 2nd, wrapping around northern and western Houston, held by first-termer Dan Crenshaw (52.8% in 2018).
The 3rd, northeast of Dallas, represented by former Texas House and Senate veteran Van Taylor (54.2% in 2018).
And the 25th, which stretches from south of Austin to Fort Worth, represented by Roger Williams (53.5 percent in 2018).
If nine districts should flip, Texas would go from a 23-13 Republican/Democrat delegation to 22 Democrats to 14 Republicans.
