Anyone up on Northern Irish politics? The results of the election could get interesting

[muriel_volestrangler]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results

At the time of writing, 17 out of 18 constituencies have reported the first preference votes - the DUP got 27.9%, down 1.0%, and Sinn Fein got 26.9%, up 4.1%. I don't know what the 1 remaining constituency is like, but perhaps it's possible Sinn Fein could end up with most. It's a Single Transferable Vote system (5 seats per constituency), so what happens in seats is far from clear yet (currently 9 SF, 8 DUP, 2 Alliance and 1 UUP, but that can easily just reflect the speed constituencies do their counts).

Turnout was high - 64.3%, surprising (to me) for an election so soon after the last.

It is possible Sinn Fein could get the most seats? The Belfast Telegraph reports Sinn Fein's Philip McGuigan has topped the poll in the DUP heartland of North Antrim.

Update: Now with all 18 constituencies in, 1st pref votes ended up 28.1% DUP, 27.9% Sinn Fein.

[Denzil_DC]

1. Well, that was a squeaker!

It was clear a couple of hours ago that the DUP would be the largest single party, just one seat ahead of Sinn Fein, but the last seats in Belfast South took ages to count. Here are the final totals:



DUP 28
Sinn Fein 27
SDLP 12
Ulster Unionists 10
Alliance 8
Greens 2
People Before Profit 2
Traditional Unionist Voice 1
Independent Unionists 1

Here's an approximation of the change from 2016 (not directly comparable as there are fewer Assembly members now than then):



It's a big setback for the DUP. They didn't cross the threshold of 30 Assembly members required to wield the Petition of Concern (right of veto) on their own, which opens the door to more wheeler-dealing on a number of issues. What it all means in the long run, we'll have to wait and see.

[Ken Burch]

2. Do you happen to know why they reduced the number of seats from 108 to 90?

I doubt the NI population has fallen that dramatically since the last election.

[muriel_volestrangler]

3. It seems to have been a general agreement that the Assembly was larger than it needed to be

On the size of the assembly, the Heads Of Agreement paper says the number of MLAs "should be reduced to five members per constituency in time for the 2021 Assembly election".
...
The DUP is on record as favouring an assembly of between 70 and 80 MLAs.

In September, Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness backed cutting the number of MLAs per constituency from six to five.

But when the BBC last month obtained a previous NIO paper which argued there was a "growing consensus" on these matters, Sinn Féin criticised it as "a piece of pro-unionist wishful thinking".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-30497444

This was being discussed in 2012, and then both the SDLP and Alliance parties said they thought a smaller assembly was a good idea:

In relation to size of constituency and number of MLAs per constituency –SDLP doesn't get the impression that people think that the constituencies are too small, but rather that there are too many MLAs per constituency.
...
'The Alliance Party is supportive of a reduction in the number of MLAs. The reduction in the number of constituencies represents a good opportunity to do this. On the basis of a move from 18 to 16 constituencies the Assembly would be reduced in size from 108 to 96 MLAs. We would be supportive of a further decrease by reducing the number of MLAs per constituency from 6 to 5; providing an Assembly with 80 Members.'

'This would be more in keeping with the size of Northern Ireland and the need for efficient government. Alliance would caution against going below five members per constituency. At below five, proportionality begins to be lost. This is seen in elections to the Dail, which can be on the basis of 3, 4 and 5-seat constituencies. Proportionality is particularly critical in a deeply divided society such as ours.'

'Five MLAs per constituency may also be more reasonable from a cost perspective.'

http://www.niassembly.gov.uk/assembly-business/committees/2016-2017/assembly-and-executive-review/session-2011-2016/number-of-members-of-the-northern-ireland-legislative-assembly/

[Ken Burch]

4. Thanks.

n/t.

[Ken Burch]

5. My biggest disappointment in those results was the defeat of Eamonn McCann,

the long-time socialist activist, who was narrowly beaten in the Foyle constituency he had finally been elected in in 2016.

Drearily, his seat(he was representing the People Before Profit Alliance) was taken by somebody from SF.