Scottish referendum predictions thread.

[Ken Burch]

post your guess here.

I'm going with 50.2%-49.8%...but not sure which way.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. No prediction on total percentage, but I think no will win out narrowly.

My guess is that some people get cold feet and decide against it.

[FSogol]

19. Same here. No will win slightly because people are afraid of change. n/t

[customerserviceguy]

38. That would be my guess

I do find the process of it all quite fascinating, though. If independence is chosen, I do wish all the best to the Scottish people.

[ReRe]

2. 51% in the yes column, 49% in the no column

Or at least this is how I HOPE it turns out.

[non sociopath skin]

3. You can tell my nerves are on edge. I got that the wrong way round!

Last edited Thu Sep 18, 2014, 06:37 AM - Edit history (1)

I'll stay with what I've been saying for two weeks. 53% No 47% Yes



The Skin

[riqster]

4. I predict one helluva lotta hoopla.

As such a momentous decision deserves.

[jambo101]

5. I think the yes side is being duped

I hope those that are voting yes realize their taxes will go up and their resource of social programs will decline substantially.
Scotland has been a member of the UK for over 300 years why all of a sudden the need to separate? whats the point?

[Jeneral2885]

6. Let me play the Salmond side

and say 50.05% YES. Then will will test out the nuclear deterrence strategy by people like savetheroyalnavy.org and ukarmedforcescommentary.blogspot.com who say Scotland will be nuked when Trident is removed.

**

I'm actually hoping for a No.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. 51.5% No, 48.5% Yes (nt)

[krispos42]

8. 53.2/46.8 "yes".

Book it. Done.

[Hoppy]

9. What does Ladbrokes predict?

[Ken Burch]

10. here's a link to their site:

http://sports.ladbrokes.com/ca-ca/politics/scottish-referendum/scottish-independence-referendum-e213511048-m222041817

It looks like, as of the time I posted that they had the following odds:

No at 1/5

Yes at 7/2

[Bosonic]

11. All bookies predict NO

and there has been a staggering volume of bets on this (10s of millions of pounds).

If you are certain it's a YES, very good odds are available...

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-independence/referendum-outcome

[oberliner]

13. Can US residents legally place a bet?

Or do you have to be in the UK?

[Bosonic]

14. No idea

[oberliner]

62. Glad I didn't

I would have been on the losing side.

[oberliner]

12. YES by a surprisingly comfortable margin

When I was in Scotland this summer I saw nothing but YES posters.

[LeftishBrit]

17. I think the Yes people are more likely to put up posters about it, however

People are more likely to put up posters for a radical change than one that says 'Better the devil you know!'

[oberliner]

18. True, but YES really seemed to be gaining momentum and enthusiasm

Granted, this is based on anecdotal evidence over a short period of time spent in one part of Scotland, but I just have a feeling that YES will prevail.

[T_i_B]

55. Posters don't vote

.

[oberliner]

56. Clearly not

Guess the silent majority prevailed in this one.

[Politicub]

15. 56% no, 44% yes

I think the people on the fence will decide to vote no.

[intaglio]

54. Pretty close, well done n/t

[LeftishBrit]

16. My prediction: 51% No; 49% Yes

[Anarcho-Socialist]

20. No by 5-6 points

If Scotland votes "yes" (which I don't think it will), there's going to be a lot of angry Scots in five years time.

1) There are those who think Scotland is going to be a beacon economy based on renewable energy
2) There are those who think Scotland is going to ramp up oil production
3) There are the hedge funds and transnational finance who think Scotland is going to have a low-regulation low tax economy
4) There are the Trots and disaffected left-wing voters who think Scotland is going to a beacon of left-wing socialism

This is very contradictory stuff and it will be big finance and the hedge funds who will carry the day. Salmond is one of them and will get what he's always wanted, a Celtic tiger economy (and we know what happened to Ireland).

There will be cried of "we were robbed".

I can't see anything progressive about it. Nationalism brings out ugliness, whether it's the Union Jack or the Saltire variety.

[non sociopath skin]

21. Hear, hear!

The Skin

[Anarcho-Socialist]

25. Clackmannanshire - No 53.8%, yes on 46.2%

"Yes" were supposed to take this one comfortably. The fact that they didn't win it at all seems indicative.

[Ken Burch]

32. This isn't about nationalism. It's about the chance to be free of Thatcherism.

The Scots will never be free of austerity and "T.I.N.A" if they stay as part of the last remnants of the Empire.

[muriel_volestrangler]

22. YouGov post-voting internet poll: 54% No, 46% Yes

YouGov predicts that No has won Scotland’s referendum with 54% of the vote

YouGov bases its prediction on the responses of 1,828 people after they voted today, together with those of 800 people who had already voted by post. Today’s respondents had previously given their voting intention earlier this week. By recontacting them, we could assess any last-minute shift in views. Today’s responses indicate that there has been a small shift on the day from Yes to No, and also that No supporters were slightly more likely to turn out to vote.

http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/09/18/yougov-referendum-prediction/

[non sociopath skin]

23. I think I need to hear the fat lady sing, muriel.

The Skin

[muriel_volestrangler]

24. I think she needs a few hours' rest first

They're saying the big turnout makes later declarations more likely.

[Ken Burch]

30. If the No does win, it needs to not win by too much.

If it was a "No" landslide, Cameron will take that as a mandate to change nothing. And Miliband won't fight him on it.

[valerief]

26. If Scotland becomes indy, the US will have to bomb it for its oil.

Sorry, it's what the US does.

[oberliner]

58. What a ridiculous comment

Seriously, come on now.

[LeftishBrit]

59. I think that was probably sarcasm! I hope so, anyway.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

27. Orkney - No 67.2%, yes 32.8%

[840high]

28. end result will be "no".

[Anarcho-Socialist]

29. Shetland - 64% for "No" and 36% for "Yes"

[Ken Burch]

31. Shetland has much of the oil in its boundaries.

Shetlanders think they'd get a better deal for it from Westminster.

Sad if the "No" wins, though, because that's a victory for the rich. A No win can't be good for workers or the poor.

[LeftishBrit]

50. To be honest...

I don't think it would have been good for workers or the poor, either way.

There would have been a lot of expensive chaos for at least a couple of years after a Yes vote, and guess which groups would have suffered the most (not the very rich, for sure!) And if times were different, the EU could have helped out and kept things relatively stable, but they're in a mess too at the moment.


Not good news of course that the Scots have to continue under the rule of a Tory government that most of them didn't vote for!


If the British government are scared enough to increase devolution as they promised; not to mention refraining in the future from using Scotland as a lab rat for horrible policies like the poll tax, as Thatcher did, then something good will have come out of the referendum.

[Ken Burch]

52. How do you account for the fact that the NO won in a lot of SNP-voting areas?

Do you think the NO voters in places like that will still vote SNP in the next Holyrood election?

[LeftishBrit]

53. Hard to say really...

I think that quite a few people vote for local SNP candidates for other reasons than strong nationalism.

Also, the turnout was far greater in the referendum than it ever is in Scottish Parliament or UK General Elections, which could explain disparities in the results: people, who don't much care who is their MP or MSP, may still have strong views for or against Scottish independence.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

33. Eilean Siar - No 53.42%, yes 46.58%

"Yes" were expected to win this one. Looking bad for them.

[Ken Burch]

39. that area is about the most heavily SNP part of Scotland.

Hard to see the "Yes" coming back from that, even if it does carry Glasgow.

[Oakenshield]

34. Whatever the percentage, I hope Yes manages a victory.

The Scots deserve to be free of the damned Tories and their austerity measures.

[Ken Burch]

35. (True). It's looking like they won't be in the short term, at the least.

It'll be interesting to see what the results look like in Glasgow, which is supposed to be the last area where the result is declared.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

36. Inverclyde - Yes 50.08%, no 49.92%

[Ken Burch]

37. That hurts. Another vote to trust Cameron.

Hard to see why anyone would, but it's their call.

Do you actually think the Tories will keep their additional powers pledge?

[Anarcho-Socialist]

40. Dundee - Yes 57% No 43%

[Ken Burch]

42. The "Yes" is only 7,000 votes down overall with that result.

Pernaps more favorable areas for the Yes will now come in.

25 out of 32 local authority areas still to report.

[Anarcho-Socialist]

41. Renfrewshire - No 53% Yes 47%

[Anarcho-Socialist]

43. West Dunbartonshire - Yes 54% No 46%

[Ken Burch]

44. The Yes carries West Dumbartonshire

33,720 Yes

28,726 No

[Anarcho-Socialist]

45. Midlothian - No 56 Yes 44

[Ken Burch]

46. Midlothian votes no

56% no
44% yes

overall national percentage

No 51%
Yes 49%

[muriel_volestrangler]

47. After a rush of results - 17 out of 32 declared, it's 56% No, 44% Yes

I reckon that's about a third of the electorate reported so far, since it's mainly been smaller councils.

The city of Aberdeen went fairly heavily 'No' (over 58%) - significant, since it's the largest so far.

[Ken Burch]

48. In case people didn't see this earlier, this was a "poll" shown on CNN:

[LeftishBrit]

51. LOL!

[oberliner]

57. Typical for CNN

And for news programs generally. So much sloppy stuff like this all over the place.

[muriel_volestrangler]

49. With Glasgow in, it's 54% No, 46% Yes

No has a lead of over 200,000, and Glasgow was, I think, the last hope for Yes - but they only won it by about 25,000. There's no way for them to make up that 200,000 now.

[T_i_B]

60. Alex Salmond has resigned as 1st Minister

He will also be stepping down as leader of the SNP.

As much as I could never abide the man or his politics, he was a considerably talented politician and I think the SNP may struggle to replace him.

[Ken Burch]

61. If Scottish Labour had STAYED Labour, rather than going Blairite on orders from London,

The SNP would never have had a foothold.

Lesson...if the non-nationalist left really wants to stop nationalism, it has an obligation to ALWAYS be anti-austerity and anti-neoliberalism.

[T_i_B]

63. Nicola Sturgeon confirmed as new SNP leader

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/SNP/11163544/Nicola-Sturgeon-confirmed-as-new-leader-of-the-SNP.html

Nicola Sturgeon has pledged to work with others to "build a better country" after she was confirmed as Scotland's First Minister-in-waiting.

The SNP announced this morning that she was the only candidate to succeed Alex Salmond as SNP leader.

Ms Sturgeon's new role will not be officially confirmed until the SNP conference next month, and her appointment as First Minister will be approved by the Scottish Parliament, with the assent of the Queen, shortly after that.

She will become Scotland's fifth First Minister since Holyrood was set up in 1999, and will also be the first woman to take on the top job.

[Ken Burch]

64. I understand that she was Salmond's choice for successor.

From what you know, are her views pretty much the same as his?

[T_i_B]

65. Nobody else stood....

...therefore it could be assumed that she is every SNP politicians choice for leader, although we all know how Labour MP's plotted against Gordon Brown after ensuring that he was elected unopposed...

[T_i_B]

66. The grim reaper is knocking for Scottish Labour

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/27/grim-reaper-knocking-scottish-labour

The old political order is a dying patient: each week brings new convulsions, more symptoms of approaching morbidity. All three main party leaders have ample reason to spend the next six months howling in the foetal position in some lonely corner of Westminster.

Nick Clegg: the man who went from Churchillian popularity levels to the walking, talking personification of political opportunism in a matter of weeks in 2010, prompting the mass defection of anti-Tory voters from Lib Dem ranks. David Cameron: the leader of a party in long-term decline who failed to win an election against a disintegrating Labour government in the midst of economic calamity, losing voters and MPs alike to ex-City broker Nigel Farage’s “people’s army”. Ed Miliband: the leader who disastrously fails to inspire with a coherent alternative, even as living standards plummet, who now faces the implosion of the Labour party in the nation to which it owes so much of its existence, Scotland. It’s springtime for Ukip, and the Greens show occasional tentative signs of a mini-surge. First-past-the-post seemed to freeze the old system in aspic. Another indecisive election result could do for it.

The three Westminster parties are in crisis, but the resignation of Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont brings us back to Labour woe. Scottish Labour is not simply in one of those ruts parties occasionally get themselves into, before dusting themselves off, having a few policy reviews and then rebounding back into office. As things stand, the political grim reaper is hammering away at the party’s doors. The party believed Scotland was theirs for keeps, that voters could go nowhere else (whoops); and, in turn, Westminster Labour saw Scottish Labour as its vassal, too. Long before the referendum, the Scottish Labour party had been emptied of its activists. From the diminished ranks of a once mighty movement, the most talented opted for Westminster; no wonder the Scottish party in Holyrood – with a few striking exceptions – is so barren of ideas, of ability, of inspiration, of anything. With much of the party reduced to an exhausted rump, a catastrophic strategic decision was made to link arms with the Scottish Tories and run a joint campaign of fear, rather than an optimistic independent Labour campaign pledging a federal Britain and a Scotland of social justice. The result? “Labour” is a word spat out in contempt by all too many Scots, including a sizeable chunk of its own former voters. Speak to prominent Scottish Labour figures, and they know the abyss beckons. They just don’t have the vaguest idea what to do about it.

If Scottish Labour does indeed die, historians will ponder just how the party of Keir Hardie allowed itself to be outflanked on the left by a Scottish National party committed to George Osborne-style cuts to corporation tax. But that is indeed the party’s quite remarkable achievement. And that brings us to the next act in the possible demise of Scottish Labour. Labour’s crisis owes so much to an embrace of Blairism that left a progressive vacuum the SNP was able to fill. It is seen – as Lamont put it herself – as “like a branch office of London”. The yes campaign repeatedly conjured up the Iraq war as a bitter memory of Westminster injustice. So who is being lined up as Lamont’s successor? The arch-Blairite, staunchly pro-war Westminster machine politician, Jim Murphy. It is not so much a loss of senses; it raises questions as to whether there are senses to lose in the first place.