SDSR 2015 - out in 3 weeks. views? predictions? thoughts?

[Ironing Man]

i thought i'd start something on this before someone else did....

from what i read, see and hear, the winners* are going to be the RAF and RN, with the Army getting its come-uppance for lamentable performance from the general staff both on warfighting and organisational change and procurement.

some of the recent stories in the media would suggest that the Army staff are trying to fight back with utterly transparent articles about the need to save money on 'gold plated' projects like the Carriers, F-35, Typhoon, the Type 26 frigate programme, and the probable buy of Boeing P-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft to replace Nimrod.

one mght think that to start a campaign three weeks before the end of a process started 6 months ago culd be called incompetance...

*winners of course being a relate term - in 1990 the RAF had over 400 fast jets, now its around 150. in 1990 the RN had 3 carriers and 40 escorts - now its no carriers and 19 escorts...

[Denzil_DC]

1. bbbbbbut JOBS!!!!

Sorry. I'd assumed that was the priority we started from on defence spending, never mind any identified strategic requirements.

The rivalry between the forces has always been a terrible basis for setting priorities and planning ahead.

[Ironing Man]

2. ...

service rivally has been a disaster for everyone - well, except the Treasury, far better to have those in the tent pissing on the others in the tent than pissing out of the tent...

[Ironing Man]

3. ministers brief, CS leak, you get charged under the official secrets act...

so, SDSR is out tomorrow (monday), and the PM, DefSec and Chancellor are doing the rounds.

Osbourne confirms that the UK will order the full requirement of 138 F-35B - while the F-35B is also the replacement for the soon to be 35 yo Tornado GR4, a buy of 138 will mean that if required, both Carriers could operate at the same time with a full 40 aircraft air group on each.

the PM appears to be concrete in saying that the ASW/MPA gap forced by the loss of Nimrod in 2010 will be closed by an order (almost certainly for the US P-8A) in the near future.

the well informed rumour mill says that the 50 early build Typhoons which were due to be retired in around 2020 will be retained for the Air Defence task.

in less good news it looks like one of the mighty six Type 45 air defence destroyers will be laid up. possibly for spairs. this class of ship is considered by the USN to be the best air defence ship in the world, but its 'new and innovative' power/engine system is a pigging nightmare...

[Denzil_DC]

4. Inevitably Syria, Paris, Belgium and points east and west will be mixed in

with the context of the review and Bouncin' Dave's urgent drive to get our hands dirty in the Middle East again ASAP:

John Humprhys, veteran propaganda peddler and all-round swell guy, took out his scissors and pritt-stik and got to work editing our history. This is what he said on the BBC Radio 4’s Today Program (135 minutes in):

Well its more than 2 years since the Government, our Government asked the House of Commons to approve military action against Islamic State in Syria and MPs said no, it was a devastating defeat. It seemed to proved the end of David Cameron’s plans to for British war Planes to join other Western forces in attacking them in Syria as well as in Iraq.

The Foreign affairs select committee produced a report that seemed to put the seal on it a few weeks ago: There should be no extension of British military action into Syria unless there is a coherent international strategy that has a realistic chance of defeating IS and of ending the civil war in Syria.”

A statement of fact with which it is only possible to have one objection. Namely, that it is not true. Parliament never voted on attacking ISIS, and Cameron never wanted to attack ISIS. The vote was about declaring war on Assad’s government. As the BBC, and the whole rest of the world, reported at the time:

MPs have rejected possible UK military action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government to deter the use of chemical weapons.

In the event that the motion had passed, we actually would have been fighting ON THE SAME SIDE as ISIS.

http://off-guardian.org/2015/11/19/bbc-caught-throwing-facts-down-the-memory-hole/

It would be nice to think there's an S in the SDSR, rather than kneejerk macho flailing.

[Denzil_DC]

5. Not much for me to say, except it was the expected usual kludge.

This was fun, though:

DUP MP Jeffrey Donaldson claimed in Westminster Parliamentary debate that nuclear weapons could move to Northern Ireland in the event Scotland removed them

...

The audacious claim was made during the Westminster Parliamentary debate on the Strategic Defence and Security Review (23 November). Speaking after a statement of opposition to Trident by SNP Westminster group leader Angus Robertson, and addressing himself to Prime Minister David Cameron, Donaldson said Northern Ireland had the facility to take the nuclear weapons system.

He said: “With support for the Union in Northern Ireland growing ever stronger, may I help to assuage the concerns of the Right Honourable Member for Moray by saying that we have lots of loughs and lots of ports, and that if the government ever need a new home for Trident, Ulster is there.”

...

A DUP spokesperson told CommonSpace that the party stood by its MPs comments: “In the circumstances that trident left Scotland, Northern Ireland would step up and take the weapons for the sake of the defence of the UK,” he said.

https://commonspace.scot/articles/2987/the-belfast-nuclear-bomb-campaigners-ridicule-dup-proposal-for-moving-trident-to-ulster

What could possibly go wrong, etc. etc.?

[LeftishBrit]

6. Yes, Ulster would be the ideal place for nukes ...