When will computers outthink humans to a point where programmers won't be necessary?

[DaveJ]

I understand that today most users are able to get things done without needing a programmer, using templates and social networking options.

But I still think software developers play an important role in making these systems evolve, and compete with one another.

Google says computers will literally out-think people in 18 years. That is, they'll have equal 'thinking' capability. We'll be able to hold conversations with them, ask them to do things, just like each other. Does anyone else wonder when computers will do the coding for us so well that we won't be needed at all?

I guess I'm asking because I'm thinking of the lifecycle of projects I'm working on and how far out I should plan them based on current architectural strategies.

[Recursion]

1. That's essentially what a compiler is, so 1953 or so

By the standards of the early 1950's, programmers don't "program" anymore, because they don't issue machine instructions but give a computer program parameters by which it should do that. Something tells me there will always be something along those lines, and it will be called "programming".

[DaveJ]

2. I guess I'm talking about design then

I'm not sure about the old school ideas about programming with their sorting algorithms and such. (hope you realize I kid... as you say, things have changed lately)

I think of software development, perhaps architecture, as how objects related to one another, OOP and all the intricacies of what the user expects to get done. The user sees a program or site do something, and they done't usually appreciate the thousands of 'moving parts' working in synchronicity, much less the extensibility of the code (if well written) and the way it interacts with data from other sources. I mean what a user thinks of as "just one thing" might require dozens of considerations.

So when computers think like us, people will just ask the computers to do this stuff, not us. I think this will happen in about 18 years so I'm wondering if there will be any role for us anymore.

[RC]

3. People in the know, used to think that there would only be a need for a few computers, world wide.

A computer in the home was unthinkable, because of the massive power requirements. Now many people have one in their pocket, that far out performs any of those building sized computers.

Predicting where computers will be 18 years in the future is an exercise in pure fantasy, as very few people have come close.
If computer could think like us, there would not be any need for programs or programers, as the computers could do it all themselves.

[DaveJ]

4. Maybe it's not worth thinking about

Right now it's very sought after skill to be able to design the applications that we carry around in our pockets. But when or if computers become intelligent enough to do that for us, I guess having any skill won't really be needed at all, so I should not worry about it.

But just in case, I was wondering how to prepare. I mean, say, if Google is the company that will invent this AI, are they doing anything to make sure it is benevolent, or is it futile and pretty much we just need to see what happens. If we're lucky and it is it is benevolent I wonder and what role will we play at that point?

For a frame of reference, here's an article that references Ray Kurzweil an engineer at Google, and recipient of National Medal of Technology and Innovation from Clinton, who says AI with outthink us by 2029:

http://www.naturalnews.com/044074_rise_of_the_machines_Google_robots_Ray_Kurzweil.html#

[Fortinbras Armstrong]

5. In 1950, Alan Turing wrote a paper

Computing Machinery and Intelligence, in which he defined the Turing Test, and said that he fully expected to see a machine that would pass it by the end of the 20th century.