Nate Silver's daily forecast. 8/4 President Obama 71% Romney 29% chance of winning.

[grantcart]

Go here to see how Silver's daily forcast looks like. Everyday he makes adjustments based on S & P 500, unemployment, new polls, etc. He breaks it down state by state so it reflects the Electoral College.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/

You have two tabs to choose from, what he is estimating Nov. 6 will look like and what would happen if the election were held today.

If it were held today then the numbers go up even more for the President 75/25.

[liberallibral]

1. Hmmm

I don't think any of the polls really matter, until around September, and after the debates take place...

Having said that, it's nice to see Obama ahead in all of them!

[grantcart]

2. Silver uses a deep statistical background on each state's historical voting record.

He also has a very convincing well documented argument on why the President's numbers are almost certainly under reported by a couple of points.

[NRaleighLiberal]

3. That is one of my go-to sites every day...along with TPM (and DU of course!)

[Flashmann]

4. Still

close enough that the rat bastard goops can steal it.....

[ellenfl]

5. BUT WE ALL MUST VOTE! we don't want people thinking they can stay home. eom