Is Hillary a sure thing?

[excringency]

One should be quite careful in declaring any candidate a sure thing this early in a presidential election cycle. I would like to tempt fate in pointing out a few facts that make me believe a Hillary Clinton nomination for the Democratic Party would make her election a sure thing. First is the notion of the Democratic "Blue Wall." These are the states that have been reliably Democratic over the course of recent decades for the Democratic nominee. I will assume that trend continues for for those eighteen New England, Midwestern, West Coast states, and D.C. for a total of 242 electoral votes out of the 270 needed. She currently polls ahead in the states of Florida, Georgia, and Iowa against likely Republican nominees. Those states total forty nine electoral votes for a total of 291, well over the needed total. That total doesn't take into account the current polling in states that are toss-ups like Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina or South Carolina that account for another forty electoral votes for a potential win with 331 votes. The most surprising polling numbers for me though are found in reliably red states like Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, and Texas where Hillary lags by single digits in the polls. Those account for fifty three electoral votes that are close enough to force the Republicans to spend money defending territory that has been a given in recent elections. Hillary may not win Texas, but she's close enough to make the Republicans defend it with blood and treasure giving her even more of an advantage nationwide. With Hillary as the nominee, the only current states that would be a sure thing for the Republicans and out of reach are Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, West Virginia, and Wyoming. That's a total of twenty five electoral votes locked up for the red team. Out of the possible Democratic nominees I see on the horizon, only Hillary Clinton represents what I see as a foregone winner in the race for president.

I also believe her candidacy would bring with it the kind of excitement many felt during the Obama race against McCain. I believe we could break the fifty percent voter participation barrier bringing with it a retaking of the Senate, (and rose colored glasses notwithstanding) a chance to either retake the House, or at least make the numbers there manageable. There will be those that harp upon the "Hillary isn't as good on "X" as Elizabeth Warren, or on "Y" as good as Bernie Sanders. Yeah I get that, but I also believe that once in office, Hillary will be the best Democratic president domestically since Johnson, and the best on foreign policy since FDR. I would also like to see the United States have its judiciary overhauled with sixteen years of Democratic appointments, especially on the Supreme Court. I fully expect, and want to see Hillary take the nomination and campaign from the center with little in the way of specifics in the general election. Let the fundamentalists among us wring their hands as she wins the highest office in the land. I believe in my heart of hearts she won't disappoint in her choices as president.

[highmindedhavi]

1. Depends on Banks/Wall St.

they choose their puppets.

[hrmjustin]

2. Are you saying she is a puppet of wall street?

[excringency]

7. I agree up to a point.

It's amazing how the Wall Street money flows into a Democratic campaign once it's close or the Democrat is in the lead. That being said, Hillary knows these people (and yes I know her history), but I don't believe anyone is going to steer her in any direction once she holds power. I accept that you might believe the direction she is predisposed to steer is that of Wall Street. I believe she'll want to improve the lives of all Americans with allies such as Warren and Sanders in the Senate.

[hrmjustin]

3. I think she will be a great nominee that will put several red states in play.

[JimDandy]

4. No, of course shes's not, is the simple answer. n/t

[SheilaT]

5. I sincerely hope not.

Her candidacy would NOT " bring with it the kind of excitement many felt during the Obama race against McCain." Unless you see her as the McCain in this formulation. There are a lot of people out there like me who view her as same-old same-old, someone who is well past her prime, someone who brings no new ideas to the table, someone who does not stand up for the middle class, someone who happily supports our endless and needless foreign wars.

What the Democratic Party needs more than anything else is someone new, someone who brings us exactly what Clinton does not.

And all this focus on her ever since January 1, 2013, means that almost no one else gets even a cursory consideration, or if so considered, is simply dismissed as not being Hillary. It's a shame, too, because there are plenty out there who deserve a closer look, but this insistence on Hillary Is The Only One is highly destructive.

[hrmjustin]

6. You understand this is the hillary clinton room?

[William769]

8. They do now.

[hrmjustin]

10. i think from now on she I post an op here I will post Hillary Clinton room post in my title.

I guess they are not noticing that it is this room.

There are si many Hillsry bashing threads here so I why those who don't like her have to come in here I do not know,

[William769]

12. It should not be our responsibility to point that fact out.

I will even go as far to say I think some will use that excuse. If they are like that here then they are undoubtedly like that on the rest of DU and don't need to be here anyway.

If it makes you feel better then do it, but I refuse to have to point that fact out.

[hrmjustin]

13. Thanks Bill!

[excringency]

9. I would agree with you on paper.

I hope Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders both run. I don't care about the generic guy from Maryland or others. I think it would make for a change in the national conversation. But I disagree with the newness for newness sake theme. Forgive me if I am putting words in your mouth, but I don't see Hillary as a creature of Wall Street or those who would take us right of center (kind of like where the party sits now). I believe she would be her own person.

[PoliticAverse]

11. A lot of people thought she was 'a sure thing' in 2008. n/t

[Dawson Leery]

14. She is the favorite for both the Democratic nomination and to be the next President.

She is not a prohibitive favorite. No such thing exists.

[Thinkingabout]

16. She is a smart cookie, credit should be given for her accepting SOS, gave her more experience.

A lot of issues she has been for during her life are still important. Wage disparity, health care, education, civil rights, and violence against women. She has proven she can work across the aisle with both parties. I think she is going to be a really good president, looking forward to working her campaign.

[excringency]

17. Your avatar reminds me of a quote with regard to the interaction here sometimes.

I've always said that in politics, your enemies can't hurt you, but your friends will kill you. -Ann Richards