Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumCalifornia Field Poll: 45-43 HRC over Sanders
Hillary Clintons lead has withered to the narrowest of margins over Sen. Bernie Sanders in what is shaping up to be a ballot-box barn burner in Tuesdays California Democratic primary, a new Field Poll showed Thursday
Clinton has leads of 49 to 40 percent among both women and registered Democrats, while men back Sanders by 48 to 39 percent. Decline-to-state voters, who can vote in the Democratic primary, back Sanders by 54 to 27 percent, according to the poll.
Clinton does lead among the registered Democrats, but Sanders is getting very close because of the strong support of the independents, DiCamillo said.
The poll also showed that even as the candidates travel around the state, many people have already cast a ballot. Twenty-three percent of those surveyed had already voted early or by mail. Among those voters, Clinton leads Sanders by nine points, DiCamillo said.
Among those who had not yet voted, 45 percent back Sanders and 44 percent are behind Clinton.
http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Field-Poll-finds-Clinton-s-California-lead-down-7958398.php
Response to WI_DEM (Original post)
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WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)the exposure it deserves.
Response to WI_DEM (Reply #3)
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still_one
(92,394 posts)No one is going to win by 30% more votes than the other candidate
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)LA County--51-41 HRC
Other Southern California--43-47 Bernie
San Francisco Bay Area--41-49 Bernie
Central Valley/Sierras--47-33 HRC
Latinos 46-42 HRC
African-Americans--57-36 HRC
Asians--34-47 Bernie
White--44-43 HRC
Jitter65
(3,089 posts)If these numbers are good...HRC should win this by 6 points. What am I missing?
TwilightZone
(25,479 posts)Asians are roughly 13% of the population in CA, so that's partly why it's so close.
BootinUp
(47,186 posts)Wonder what their thinking is.
still_one
(92,394 posts)no one will have a blow-out win in California.
No surprise that those who have been registered Democrats since the last election are going with Hillary.
This is the final push weekend for call banking and canvassing
This poll pretty much confirms no blow-out that the sanders campaign has been spewing for a month
TwilightZone
(25,479 posts)Not that it matters much. I'd just like to see Hillary win CA to help put a damper on the contested convention nonsense.
still_one
(92,394 posts)that group.
Response to still_one (Reply #6)
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still_one
(92,394 posts)3 polls including the Field poll give Hillary a 2 point lead, and one gives her an 18 point lead. That implies the 18 point lead is probably an outlier:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html
Hillary has a good chance to pull this off, but I just don't see that it will be a blow-out, and essentially a push
Response to still_one (Reply #16)
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still_one
(92,394 posts)NBC/WSJ/Marist +2
Field +2
KABC/SurveySA +18
PPIC +2
Response to still_one (Reply #21)
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DLCWIdem
(1,580 posts)Skewered it.
LonePirate
(13,431 posts)TwilightZone
(25,479 posts)I have no idea what to think. Field's a good org though, so it's probably as close as they're indicating.
Further indication that we should have closed primaries. The "decline-to-state" voters are a primary reason why it's even close.
still_one
(92,394 posts)That is a reflection of a win or lose, not the final voting
No blowout will happen in California, and more and more people, especially those who work have been moving toward voting by mail.
Also, this year vote by mail is postage paid
caquillo
(521 posts)In 2008, the RCP Average had Obama leading by +1.2 heading into Super Tuesday (when CA voted then), but Hillary ended up winning the state by 8 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ca/california_democratic_primary-259.html
still_one
(92,394 posts)William769
(55,147 posts)Hillary Clinton will win with a comfortable margin.
still_one
(92,394 posts)It is the newly registered that are the wild card.
What the polls indicate is that Hillary has a slight advantage. They also indicate that if Sanders wins, it won't be a landslide victory, which means he loses.
In reality we already know that regardless of what happens in California, the race is over, Hillary is the nominee.
A win in California would be icing on the cake
I can tell you Hillary volunteers are working their butts off doing canvassing and phone banking, and there are a lot of folks who are pumped up about voting for Hillary. I hear a lot of enthusiasm when I am making phone calls for Hillary
still_one
(92,394 posts)California will not be a blowout
BobbyDrake
(2,542 posts)In other words, the youth vote is blowing it again for Bernie Sanders.
texstad79
(115 posts)They have oversampled whites, who are 46% of the CA population, but 56% of this sample.