Hillary vs The Donald

[leftofcool]

I am seeing a lot of confidence in Donald Trump's campaign here on DU. I think some are missing a few valid points about how elections work. First, Donald Trump will never get the AA or Latino vote. He just won't. I don't care how big the GOP turnout is, he can't win without that. Those votes will go to Hillary. Secondly, the Republican establishment does not want Donald Trump. They have been hinting at this for months now and some now are coming right out and saying it. What this means is that Trump has some fringe supporters that will vote for him but he will never get more moderate/established Republicans on board. Those votes will go to Hillary, a guarantee. They may not always like her but they will vote for her over Trump. Hillary has the female vote, which is one of the largest voting blocks in the country. Getting the female vote is a no brainer. My last point is this: Trump is not likely to be the GOP nominee anyway. At the RNC Convention, Republicans are going to nominate someone less, crass, someone with more brains, and someone less brazen, which is probably a Rubio. At that point Trump will run as a 3rd party which I believe has been his plan all along. Hillary will not only crush Rubio, she will crush the entire GOP.

[rpannier]

1. My Assessment

Trump won't win any state that Obama won in 2012

He won't be HRC, Sanders, You, Me, My Cat, My Drug Addicted Former College Roommate
The question is what other states will he drop or struggle mightily in

From 2012, She challenges in Kentucky, Indiana (Lake County turned out big in 08 and Obama won), North Carolina and possibly Montana
I'd love to say West Virginia, Louisiana, Arizona and Arkansas as well. But they all went round the bend awhile back. Though, with a Democratic governor... maybe in LA. But I wouldn't bet much on it

Oh, K&R

I do agree with your assessment on Forrest Trump being the nominee
As the numbers of Republican wannabes whittle, I'm guessing most of those voters will drift to Rubio
I don't think Rubio wins any of the states Obama won in 2012 either... that includes Florida

[Iliyah]

2. There are a lot of RWers here that are posing as Dems

And then you have the fear factor to boot, trying to scare the Dems and you know what, it ain't gonna work.

Go Hillary!

[yallerdawg]

3. Trump is running out of time to be on the ballots 3rd Party.

Lots of 'sore loser' state rules.

I think this summer he finds a way out, has the material for his next book, and gets his NBC show back by fall!

And Hillary crushes the dregs of the Republican Party! Don't care who.

[George II]

4. One of these days, he's going to have to start addressing specific policy questions. All he does...

..now is bluster and insult and say "I won", "I'll win", etc.

Do we really think he's going to skate through a general election campaign without doing so? Will he be able to behave at a one-on-one debate with Clinton the way he does at those republican debates, where the moderators are afraid to tangle with him?

One other thing, it was reported yesterday and again today, there are now a number of organizations with lots of money that are beginning to run anti-Trump ads. I wouldn't be surprised if the RNC is quietly doing so, too.

[Lil Missy]

16. I disagree - Trump won't ever have to get specific because his constuency doesn't require them.

I never would have believed this could happen, but I think his followers are more angry and bitter than anything else. They get spoon fed outrage, umbrage and out and out lies from Fox Snooze on a daily basis in order to stir them into a frenzy.

But I still think HRC can win against him, and it won't even be close. That's my 2 cents/prediction. (It will be Hillary vs. Trump)

[Rose Siding]

19. Not sure his voters want to know about policy.

Out loud he said he loves the poorly educated. When it finally happens, if it's after he's cinched it, he could swing left in some areas. I don't think he'll skate anywhere but I do remember how not so long ago CA elected Arnold. *shiver*

[HillareeeHillaraah]

5. But what if...

...he picks Rubio as his running mate. They've been hinting at it on the few minutes of MSNBC I saw this a.m. Talking about how Rubio and Trump have a nice-nice going on of late. Could a Trump Rubio ticket be coming? And does that give them the Hispanic vote? gives them Florida I'd bet...

[leftofcool]

8. Republicans Latinos are about 6-8%

That means at least 92% of Latinos vote Democrat. Not a chance they get the Latino vote.

[book_worm]

9. I honestly don't see any establishment Republican running with Trump

I've heard a rumor that Florida Governor Rick Scott is on the short list of Trump running mates, though. I think we could have a field day with him. He's not popular in Florida either.

On a side note, as of right now it doesn't even look like Marco can win the Florida primary. What does it say if you can't even win your own states primary?

[mainstreetonce]

17. Trump/Rubio

would be the stupidest thing Rubio ever did. He is too young to wash up his whole career.

[RussBLib]

6. I'm afraid we've lost focus on the Senate and House

The President can only do so much, and we've seen that with Obama. Give the Dem a House and Senate majority and things get done. Good things. It's frustrating when they have the majority and then are cautious and timid with it, but when Obama had the House and Senate, Obamacare and the stimulus plan were passed.

I have heard very very little about the races for Senate and House. The Senate is within reach and is most important to get your judicial nominees thru. The House less so but would be a huge coup. I cannot understand why the Dems often don't even run ANYONE to oppose some GOP'ers. That's just madness. Everything should be contested.

Is anyone keeping a close eye on the Senate and House races?

[book_worm]

7. I think there will be a lot of Republican office holders who will keep there distance from

Trump.

[BlueCaliDem]

10. But-but-but POLLS! They're showing that Trump can beat Hillary!!!11

The AA and Latino vote don't matter; the fact that President Obama will campaign for her, won't matter; and the fact that she's much stronger than Trump ever will be, won't matter.

[font color="red" size="14"]Teh POLLS!!11[/font]

[book_worm]

11. Exactly!

These early polls are meaningless. What they do demonstrate is that Trump is weaker than some of the others as a GE candidate (Kasich, who won't get the nomination and Rubio, whose chances of getting it are growing dimmer--almost as dim as he is). Once Hillary is the Democratic nominee we will unite the party--maybe not a few malcontents on DU--but overwhelmingly I see most Bernie supporters supporting Hillary. I see young women coming to her in large numbers. I think that Trump will change his tactics and try and project a less outspoken more "look at me, I'm a businessman who can get things done" attitude, but he is such a loose cannon I don't see him being able to maintain it. The debates I think will be crucial. I can see HRC offering real solutions to problems in a calm, rational way while Trump just does his usual "We're going to win so much you'll get tired of winning" without offering what he is going to do except build a wall.

[BlueCaliDem]

14. In that regard, the U.S. media and press have been helpful; highlighting his racist and arrogant

attitude that will be his downfall in the G.E. Yes, I believe he'll win the G.E. primaries, and that's bad for Republicans but good for us if we can keep it together and nominate Hillary Clinton as our nominee.

It's why Rove's SuperPAC is launching one negative ad after the other against her, and why they've spent ZERO dollars on negative ads against Bernie. They WANT Bernie to win the Democratic Party primaries because they know Trump is going to be their candidate, and they know he'll lose against Hillary's superior knowledge and campaigning style.

Also, they know President Obama favors her over Bernie, and he'll campaign hard for her; bringing out the Latino and AA voters to the polls while she fights and raises funds for down-ticket Dems to take back as many Senate seats (24 up for grabs, 18 currently vulnerable) as we can in order to take back the Senate.

Then 2020 is around the corner: a census year. We will be given the chance to boot as many Republicans out of governor's mansions and legislatures, and redraw districts so we can take back the House.

So we can't afford to put purity over politics; can't make the perfect the enemy of the good. NO ONE politician is perfect. They all have flaws we dislike. But we can't take our eyes off the big prize. We need to elect the strongest Democrat to go toe-to-toe with whatever clown the Republicans put forward.

We need to focus on the big prize - taking back Congress from the nutters - not indulge in the sideshows.

[William769]

12. If the pundits are correct Trump will have another cross (so to speak) to bear.

On his short list for VP is the Governor of Florida!

[mcar]

20. Take him, Trump

Please take him the hell out of my state.

[William769]

21. It's my State too!

[mcar]

22. Hey!

West Central FL here, where the manatees winter.

[William769]

23. S.W. Florida here

Where the snowbirds flock!

[mcar]

24. Oh we get them too

I've lived here for 25 years. I hate what the Republicans have done to this once wonderful state. They've ruined the environment, the education system and have done jack to bring in sustainable jobs. Plus, no solar energy! We've got 4 years to retirement and are seriously considering doing a reverse, moving further north.

[William769]

25. Agreed.

Things started to fall apart after Governor Graham.

[mcar]

26. Yes

Although I loved GOV Chiles, too, rest him.

[William769]

27. I did too!

I just had a hard time with that coonskin cap.

[mcar]

28. LOL

I met a man recently who works in D.C. with my son. When he was just out of college, he got a job working on the Chiles campaign. The stories he told! He thought the world of the gov.

[RussBLib]

13. that the GOP'ers so readily accept this bombastic ass says a lot about them

They are so starved for "leadership" they will latch onto any old barnacle that is loud and proud.

Pretty. Fucking. Sad.

[MSMITH33156]

15. A lot of what he's doing won't fly in a General Election...

...he's basically the monster the Republican Party has created.

1) They can't call him racist because the official stance of the Republican Party is that racism ended in 1964.

2) They can't say building a wall is a completely idiotic idea since most illegal immigrants in this country arrive via plane, simply because they've been pandering to the anti-Latino vote and played up the "millions" running across our borders BS.

3) They can't fact check the stupid internet rumor BS that is the foundation of his campaign, because they've spent a decade thriving off the misreported news cycle, chain e-mail culture that intentionally misleads...the proverbial "brother-in-law" e-mail.

4) They can't use legitimate sources to fact check because they're on a decades long strategy of telling their base not to believe facts.

They created this monster, and he will be dealt with the general election.

What I don't understand is how/why they have not gone after his record as a shitty businessman. He's outsourced jobs, he's declared bankruptcy multiple times, he's hired illegal immigrants. They are just a bunch of wimps. If he is threatening to run the country like a business, they should really use his own business dealings to whack him over the head with.

[MSMITH33156]

18. Beware of the completely false narrative

that Dems have a general election problem because of lower turnout in the primary.

This has nothing to do with general election energy and everything to do with the competitiveness (or lack thereof) in the primary. It's assumed Hillary is going to be the candidate, so turnout is low.

If you look at the last 3 times an incumbent wasn't running (rendering his party's primary moot):

2008 - Democrats had far higher turnout in primary, won election, easily.

2000 - Republicans had far higher turnout, lost popular vote, cheated to win electoral college, but in reality, lost.

1988 - Democrats had far higher turnout in the primary, Republican landslide in the general election.

If you look at historical context around those elections, in 88 and 2000, Bush Sr and Gore, respectively, took on the Hillary role from this year. There was a primary, they had opponents, but they were assumed nominee the whole time and won their primaries comfortably, as expected. Despite all the "revolution" talk, that's what is happening with the Democratic Primary in 2016.

Meanwhile, those same years, the opposite party had a free for all. In 88, the Dems had a huge regional divide, with Jesse Jackson in the south, Al Gore in Appalachia, and Dukakis most everywhere else. He ended up winning by a large margin, but it was really competitive everywhere, which drove turnout. Same for Bush vs. McCain in 2000, where McCain won 3 of the early states and really pushed it into a competition, before Bush pulled away.

We all remember 2016, but the Democratic candidates pushed things to historical records we'll probably never see again, because they were both outstanding candidates with a broad base of support, and therefore made it competitive.

What you're seeing in 2016 on the Republican side is turnout being driven both by anti-party voters who want Trump because they hate their own party, and those that despise Trump so they are voting out of desperation to derail him. It's all negative energy.

I think we're in great shape for the general election, and hopefully it will have a down ballot impact in the Senate. Unfortunately, we need to undo political gerrymandering to have a shot in the House, so hopefully we can get the Presidency and Senate, get legitimate justices on the court, and make the form of redistricting that we have now illegal.

[FrenchieCat]

29. Great info and analysis, but

Please correct the year in your eighth paragraph . I don't think you meant 2016