Here is the upcoming primary & caucus calendar thru 3/15--your thoughts? (HRC Group)

[book_worm]

OK gang here are the upcoming contests in the next two weeks:

March 5
Kansas (caucus) 33 delegates
Louisiana (Primary) 51 delegates
Nebraska (caucus) 25 delegates

March 6
Maine (caucus) 25 delegates

March 8
Michigan (Primary) 130 delegates
Mississippi (Primary) 36 delegates

March 15
Florida (primary) 214 delegates
Illinois (Primary) 156 delegates
Missouri (Primary) 71 delegates
North Carolina (Primary) 107 delegates
Ohio (Primary) 143 delegates

[MarianJack]

1. Hi from Winthrop, ME!

I have a good feeling about HRC's chances up here...even in this VERY white state!

PEACE!!!

[book_worm]

3. Sounds good.

I would love to have a Maine win or even a close defeat would deflate Bernie.

[riversedge]

4. I have not heard anything about Maine. Thanks for the heads up.

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

8. From Maine too.

I have no idea really. Maine is always a little unpredictable, but I've read things that suggest Bernie might win in Maine. I could see that. Bernie has the advantage of being at least from New England. I think that seems to be enough to get people on his side around here if they are pretty much undecided.

[book_worm]

2. My feeling is that HRC is weaker in the caucus states but should win

most if not all of the primary states--all of which have big delegates.

On March 5 she should almost certainly win Louisiana. Given how OK voted, I can see Bernie taking KS and possibly NE. Again two very white states in caucuses where party activists do turn out.

On March 6 my guess is that Bernie will take Maine, but as usual HRC isn't conceding a single delegate.

On March 8 the first big Industrial state of the Midwest--Michigan and the polls have been looking good with HRC leads of 20 or more points. She should win it and also have a big win in Mississippi one week from today as well.

March 15 is where we effectively clinch the nomination, imo, HRC will win FL, IL, NC and OH. Missouri, I think, will be the most competitive of the states.

So that is my 2 cents.

[Historic NY]

14. I like your two cents.

[femmocrat]

5. K & R

Thank you!

[BlueCaliDem]

6. Well, now I know why Hillary Clinton was in Florida last night.

[UrbScotty]

7. Here in Michigan, things are looking good (knock on wood)!

[George II]

9. Also posted here, with Project 538 forecasts (where available):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511392964

Looking forward to March 15:

Clinton's Project538 forecast chances of winning:

March 5, 6

Nebraska - no forecast 26 delegates
Kansas - no forecast 33 delegates
Maine - no forecast 25 delegates
Mississippi - no forecast 36 delegates

March 8

Michigan - 98% 133 delegates

March 15

Florida - 99% 207 delegates
Ohio - 94% 148 delegates
Illinois - 99% 160 delegates
Missouri - no forecast 75 delegates
North Carolina - 94% 107 delegates

[GusBob]

10. She wins all but Maine and maybe Nebraska

the wins will be in the 70/30 or 60/40 %-wise

The loss(es) will be 55-45

March 15th seals the deal

[MSMITH33156]

11. My thoughts

Bernie will win 3 out of 4 this weekend. So his supporters will be buoyed.

But delegate wise, it'll either be around a push, maybe slightly to Hillary because Louisiana will be a blowout. As a guide, Bernie won OK by 10 points and ended up with +4 delegates. Out of 36 awarded so far. Assuming Nebraska and Kansas go similar, and being generous, he'll be +10 out of those. Maine I figure another 5. So plus 15. Meanwhile looking at Arkansas and Tennessee as guides, Hillary will likely also get about +15 in Louisiana. So a wash.

Tuesday, Hillary wins both. Judging by Alabama, she'll take the vast majority of Mississippi. Probably something like 30, and get +24. We have no comp for the rest of the states, but going by polls, and assuming allocation, 60-40, she'll be +26 in Michigan.

Then on the 15th she wins all 4 at have polling for, and I'll just give Sanders a 10 point win in Missouri for no reason.

Florida: HRC currently at 66%. +68
Illinois: HRC currently at 66%. +45
Missouri: Bernie at 55% just to be generous. +7
NC: HRC currently at 60%. +21
Ohio: HRC currently at 60%. +29

So that is overall after all those states, HRC gains an additional 206 on that math. But those are estimates and assumptions. My guess is HRC gains roughly 200. Meanwhile, Sanders actually need to win by those margins since he's that far behind. Even if he turns those states he's losing into wins, he needs to do more. He needs blowouts. This race is over after the 15th, officially. But you can see the mountain be has to climb.

[beachbum bob]

12. only a couple primaries that I consider toss ups, rest will go to hillary

March 5
Kansas (caucus) 33 delegates >>>> hillary wins
Louisiana (Primary) 51 delegates >>>>>hillary wins
Nebraska (caucus) 25 delegates >>>>>hillary wins

March 6
Maine (caucus) 25 delegates >>>>>toss up

March 8
Michigan (Primary) 130 delegates >>>>>>hillary wins
Mississippi (Primary) 36 delegates >>>>>hillary wins

March 15
Florida (primary) 214 delegates >>>>>hillary wins
Illinois (Primary) 156 delegates >>>>>>hillary wins
Missouri (Primary) 71 delegates >>>>>hillary wins
North Carolina (Primary) 107 delegates >>>>>>hillary wins
Ohio (Primary) 143 delegates >>>>>>toss up

[Godhumor]

13. Disagree on your toss ups

Hillary is +15 in Ohio and a 90%+ chance to win according to 538.

I think she will lose NE, KS and ME but takes every other state. By significant margins. There will be no to the wire results in any of the other states.

[book_worm]

15. I think all the caucuses are losers for HRC

KS, NE & ME--even HRC's campaign is saying that. I think all the primaries (bigger turnouts) are winners for HRC--though I'm not completely sure about Missouri.

[Treant]

16. If you made me guess?

March 5: A good day for Sanders
Kansas: Sanders +5
Louisiana: Clinton +25
Nebraska: Sanders +15

March 6: Another good day for Sanders
Maine: Sanders +25

March 8: A great day for Clinton
Michigan: Clinton +25
Mississippi: Clinton +40

March 15: A great day for Clinton
Florida: Clinton +25
Illinois: Clinton +20
Missouri: Clinton +10
North Carolina: Clinton +25
Ohio: Clinton +15

[mcar]

17. Looks good for Hill!

[gemlake]

18. Louisiana and Mississippi will be big wins

and more than make up for any possible losses in Kansas, Maine and Nebraska. Michigan is also looking good, although Hillary will probably be outspent there again.

March 15 will be another huge day. I predict 5 for 5.