New PPP polls of all five Tuesday states....

[book_worm]

Clinton is better positioned in the Southern states voting on Tuesday. She leads 57/32 in Florida, and 56/37 in North Carolina. She benefits in Florida from it being a closed primary state- her lead with Democrats is comparable to what it is in the three Midwestern states voting on Tuesday but that’s the entire electorate in the Sunshine State, putting her in a strong position. In North Carolina, Clinton has already accrued a huge lead during early voting. Among those who have already cast their ballots she leads 68/29, and the race only gets closer overall because her advantage is a tighter 50/40 spread among those planning to vote on Election Day.

Clinton leads Bernie Sanders just 46/41 in Ohio and 48/45 in Illinois, while narrowly trailing Sanders in Missouri 47/46. Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri are all open primary states and Sanders is benefiting from significant support from independent voters and a small swath of Republicans planning to vote in each state, putting him in position to potentially pull an upset sweep of the region on Tuesday night:

State Overall Democrats Independents Republicans
OH Clinton 46-41 Clinton 55-37 Sanders 53-20 Sanders 56-21
IL Clinton 48-45 Clinton 59-37 Sanders 69-18 Sanders 62-23
MO Sanders 47-46 Clinton 56-39 Sanders 62-23 Sanders 66-23

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Well, there we go--Independents and Republicans might in enough numbers cause mischief in the Democratic primaries tomorrow.

[beachbum bob]

1. end of the day, hillary gains MORE delegates and votes than sanders no matter what

[Cha]

2. Cheers to that!

[book_worm]

8. That is good, yes,

but it is not good if she loses every major Industrial State of the Midwest. It gives Sanders more momentum (and the media more negative talking points about her campaign) as we move to areas that he is strongest in. I don't want to rain on any parades but after today, with the exception of Kentucky, there are no more Southern states left for HRC to rack up delegates. She has to begin to prove (and I know this sounds like a Sanders arguement) that she can win outside the South (I know, I know she has won MA, NV & IA). If Ohio goes for Sanders that doesn't bode well in PA, for example. I wonder why the Democrats have to have so many open primaries.

[Treant]

15. On the up side,

Pennsylvania's primaries are closed (even though the Independents here do complain about that).

She's not going to suffer the same crossover problem she did in MI and, potentially, OH and IL. Not here.

PA's registration closes on, I think, March 26th. If you haven't registered by then, you're not voting.

[vdogg]

3. I'm surprised Sanders is so low with independents in Ohio.

He usually pulls about 70-30. If the margin in that poll holds we'llof probably take Ohio. I'm always dubious about polls where neither candidate breaks 50. This usually indicates a high possibility of an upset.

[Thinkingabout]

4. The uphill climb is in Hillary's favor, splitting delegates is not going

To produce the needed delegates for Sanders. We still have hard work to do, never back off of getting the voters out.

[Sancho]

5. This is an accurate picture...and Hillary will pull further ahead in the delegate race.

Time is running out for Bernie! A tie for Hillary is a win for Hillary. If she wins FL, NC, and one of the midwest states - she will make it almost impossible for Bernie to catch up.

She really has won now. Maybe keeping Bernie around is not so bad, because it keeps Hillary on TV and gets some Democrats out to register and vote.

[book_worm]

11. It's bad if he keeps winning

especially in key states like Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan. But it's all about GOTV and hopefully she can do so.

[MSMITH33156]

13. He'll have the narrative

she'll win the election. I'd rather win the election.

[Firebrand Gary]

6. Yep, more delegates and more votes! Hillary wins all the way around!

A few things are happening that I am grateful to the Sanders campaign for. When people see Hillary as they saw her last night, it's a tremendous boon for her. While I've stated all along that I like Sanders, the public wants to know more now. As we are moving through the primaries, voters want more detailed information and that plays well for Hillary.

It's great to fight for your beliefs, but you've also got to tell people how exactly are you going to get it done.

[riversedge]

7. "Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri are all open primary states and Sanders is benefiting from..."

These open primaries SUCK!

[Chichiri]

9. If these overall numbers hold, and Bernie gets all the undecideds....

Hillary gets about 369 delegates, Bernie gets 322. Hillary wins the evening.

Hillary's target is 365, Bernie's is 326. Don't even worry about the states, just watch for Hillary's delegate count to hit 365.

That's tomorrow. Today, for the love of god, make some phone calls!

[book_worm]

10. We got phone lists for IL and are making calls

[Light63]

12. Why even allow Indepedents or Republicans to vote in the Democratic Primaries?

After all, these are Democratic Primaries to vote and select a Democraric candidate! I truly want only close primaries across the boards to prevent crossover to muck up the voting days.

In any event, I truly hope Illinoisans acknowledge that Illinois is the home state of Hillary and vote for her like the peoples in Vermont have faithfully voted for Bernie. As for my part, I will try to persuade my wife and daughter to vote for Hillary. They have never voted before.

All of these years, Hillary has endured all of these vicious attacks from the Republicans. Now the same horrible tactics that the Repubs have used against her are being used by the peoples who are supposed to be on the same side as us. Politics truly is an unfaithful and unloyal animal! Even though one associates his or her political view with one candidate, one should never allow oneself to attack another in such vicious, horrible and untrue propagandistic methods.

[Stuckinthebush]

17. State rules

The party has no power over a State to require party identification.

I agree with you, but the party has no way to enforce it if a state doesn't want it.

[riversedge]

14. Wild: Recent Illinois polls show everything from Clinton +42 to Sanders +2. and new PP

poll not included


@aseitzwald

Wild: Recent Illinois polls show everything from Clinton +42 to Sanders +2. h/t @LukeBrinker

[UtahLib]

16. K&R