Why is Hillary's lead considered so big right now? Math (HRC Group)

[Godhumor]

Anyway, a lot of Berners want to make it through tomorrow and then utterly conquer the next three weeks. The entire race changes before NY and Bernie is in the driver's seat for that primary! He is the frontrunner, really! Except he is not. Really not. Following text from a piece I did in GDP.

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Bernie is going to have a good stretch, but his hope at making up the gap hinges on outperforming big states starting in later April, not the favorable stretch in the next few weeks.

After the 15th, there are only 373 pledged delegates up for grabs before NY. Just in overall terms, the following math comes into play:

If Bernie runs strong on Tuesday and manages to 50-50 split the entire day (Which he won't, but let's say he does), he is still down by the same 206 delegates he is today.

To get the full way back to that he needs to win over 77% of those 373 delegates before NY. A wipe-out of 290 to 84. Some states in the next few weeks will be close, and Hillary will be favored in Arizona's closed primary, probably by double digits. Arizona is the third largest delegate haul in that 3 week stretch, by the way.

So what is close to parity? Within 50? Even then he needs over 71% of all those delegates.

Now, let's assume that Hillary expands her lead by 50 on Tuesday (So I can reuse some of the same numbers, and it will be a lot closer to reality than a 50-50 split). To be at parity by NY, Bernie needs to win over 86% of all those delegates, which means multiple states where Hillary gets below the 15% voter threshold. That has only happened in Vermont so far, and even then just barely.

To be within 50 would be that 77% number from a few paragraphs before.

So let's go one step farther, let's say Bernie splits Arizona after splitting Tuesday. He would need to win 76% of the 298 remaining delegates before NY to be within 50 of Hillary by NY. If she increases her lead by 50 tomorrow and splits Arizona, he needs 85% of the delegates to be within 50.

So let's look at a more realistic scenario. Hillary increases her lead by 50 tomorrow and Bernie, even including Arizona, wins the next 3 weeks by an average of 60-40 in delegate split. He'll still be down over 180 delegates by NY. What about at 70-30? He will still be down 107.

Parity, hell even near parity as being defined by an over-generous 50 delegates, is simply not feasible at this stage in the game.

[GusBob]

1. I admire you educating folks on the delegate math

But I don't think some understand. Even some in the press think winning states wins the nomination

Watch what happens tom. night. She may lose 3 states and will still come out on top in delegates, winning the night
'
He should have never written off the Southern states. When the people who said that 'southern and/or red states don't matter' finally realize they were wrong, the vitriol will hit the fan.

When they finally understand how the delegate count matters, the vitriol will hit the fan

When they finally realize it was the voters who gave her the nomination, and not DWS, the DNC or the media, the vitriol will hit the fan

When they finally realize how primary politics and democracy works and not online polls, the vitriol will hit the fan

In the end vitriol will cost the nomination, and the WH in the GE

edit to add: The big story tom. night will be if Trump seals the deal. Then its time to face reality

[GusBob]

5. a couple of replies in GDP thtread bear witness

forgot to add: you must know she is cheating

[JSup]

8. Every time they

talk about her playing tricks in <insert sate she wins>, I always here it in Smeagol's voice.

"Tricksy Clintonses stole my precious..."

A conspiracy in every pot with some of these guys.

[Her Sister]

2. so in other words!?

HRC only needs 45% to keep winning!

[romana]

4. That's what I see

Last edited Mon Mar 14, 2016, 02:28 PM - Edit history (1)

I play around with the delegate splits on a spreadsheet. Even if I gave everything after Tuesday until NY to Sanders 63/37 and then every race after that to Sanders 55/45, she still goes into the convention with more delegates. It's close, but she still has more, not including superdelegates. And that's being very kind to Sanders, IMO. He needs very big wins all the way down the line, especially in delegate rich states. While that's not impossible, it seems very unlikely that a shift of that magnitude would occur from a few ties in the rust belt.

He is going to probably outspend her from now until the end, though. We need to GOTV as much as possible. I'll be phone banking tonight.

[Thinkingabout]

3. Hillary can get less than the split and there are still super delegates

Which will endorse by the Convention and in her favor.

[Blue Idaho]

6. The gate is swinging closed...

The inevitable drip drip drip of delegates can't help was the clock keeps ticking and the number of primaries keeps dwindling.

BTW - how does Hillary's math compare to the President's position at this time in 2008?

[Treant]

7. Clinton's better off

I'm not sure of the specific timing, but Obama was never more than about 140 delegates ahead.

That lead never dwindled to less than 40.

[Blue Idaho]

9. Thanks! nt.

[UtahLib]

10. K&R

[mainstreetonce]

11. Thanks

I can't think mathematically, but I appreciate the skill of the people who do it.

Hill yes!