Hillary Clinton
Related: About this forumMarch 28:538 Clinton has an 84% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary; Sanders 16%
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UPDATED 10:02 AM EDT | Mar 28, 2016
v Wisconsin Democratic primary
According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has an 84% chance of winning the Wisconsin primary.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/wisconsin-democratic/
From abc news.
Happening Today -- Clinton to Give Speech on Supreme Court Vacancies
Today, Hillary Clinton will weigh in on the Supreme Court vacancy left by Antonin Scalia. In her scheduled speech at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, Clinton will argue that the vacancy underscores the high stakes in this election and urge Americans to keep this in mind as they cast their vote. The Democratic hopeful plans on stating that Senate Republicans must be prevented from succeeding in their strategy of refusing to consider the President's nominee. Clinton will specifically call on Sen. Chuck Grassley, who is Chairman of the Judiciary Committee, to commit to giving President Obama's nominee Judge Merrick Garland a hearing. Clinton will also focus on Republican frontrunner Donald Trump and try to make the case that voters should be concerned about who President Trump would nominate.
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BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)Wisconsin has an open primary and we already know what havoc non-Dems have wrought in earlier primaries that were open. I sincerely hope that FivethirtyEight's poll predictions for WI are accurate.
Here's the latest RCP analysis: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_presidential_primary-3764.html
I really hope that Hillary brings this one home.
LisaM
(27,811 posts)I don't think Hillary voters will mess with their votes again to block Trump, especially since Cruz apparently has a lead. I also don't think you'll get Republicans crossing over to vote for Sanders. Michigan was messed up by the insane amount of crossover voting on both sides (and I'm not excusing any Hillary supporters who did this, it's wrong, IMO). We'll see, I guess.
BlueMTexpat
(15,369 posts)ANY Hillary supporters who would use votes to stop Trump. I hope that there were some hard lessons learned from the MI result. Never take anything for granted. I sincerely hope that you are right in your assessment overall.
Drumpf is the GOP's problem! Let them clean up shop themselves and frankly, the more they are in disarray, the better for us all.
We Dems must get our strongest candidate so far ahead that we no longer have fantasy Bernie come-from-behind scenarios that only raise false hope for some and continue to cause perceptions of division where we should be united!
LisaM
(27,811 posts)Say that there hadn't been the supposed 7% crossover in Michigan. Hillary would have won by 3 or 4 points (I never thought the huge lead was realistic). She did pull well with her core voters. College student turnout will make a difference, and it depends on how Milwaukee does with turnout (weather could be a factor). The GOP race looks different at this point too, no Rubio, so Trump will presumably not be out in front quite so much.
A wildcard in Michigan was that Kasich was from the neighboring state of Ohio and - God knows why - appealed to some Michigan voters because of name recognition. In Wisconsin, I wonder about the Chicago suburbs. Will Hillary's name recognition, or the fact that she has Chicago ties, appeal to these voters?
bluestateguy
(44,173 posts)nt
DavidDvorkin
(19,477 posts)He relies on polls. Those were off. He can only use the data he has.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)drray23
(7,627 posts)I despise caucuses for this reason. Another one is that how easy it is for vocal supporters of Bernie Sanders to bully other people to caucus with them. I saw it on TV. They were showing a caucus and this young woman was a Hillary supporter. She was being harassed by a Bernie supporter until she finally said, "ok, am i caucusing for Bernie.". Peer pressure among young people is a powerful thing.
seabeyond
(110,159 posts)riversedge
(70,214 posts)crap on that.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)As I'm sure you know.
riversedge
(70,214 posts)UtahLib
(3,179 posts)LiberalFighter
(50,922 posts)That would fine and dandy in a general election when candidates get all of the electoral votes except in two states.
The focus should be on the number of delegates won and the spread. The bigger the spread the better.
CalvinballPro
(1,019 posts)WI is also an open primary, so I'm very suspicious of any polling coming out of that state currently. Especially after they dropped the ball so badly with MI.
Just saying. An 84% chance isn't a done deal or anything.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)I'm sure she'll fight hard for WI, but it really seems like natural Sanders turf.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)Obama blew her out there in 2008, it's an open primary, demographically identical to Minnesota, between MI and MN (both Sanders states)
I think she thumps him in NY and PA/CT/MD/DE in the last 12 days of April, but I think a Clinton win in WI would be a major upset.
jmowreader
(50,557 posts)I'm going with Sanders +3 to Sanders +5. There's a whole lotta rural in Wisconsin, and Bernie does well in rural areas. If this was a caucus I think we'd be seeing Washington numbers, but a primary hurts him because the Bros can't bully Hillary supporters into submission.
geek tragedy
(68,868 posts)If he only gets 51-52% that's a lost opportunity.
Treant
(1,968 posts)I'm saying Sanders 55% myself (WI really being Sanders territory)...but I do think 55 is still a lost opportunity there. Really, anything under sixty is.
Cha
(297,210 posts)how could she have such a great chance.
I want it to be so!
LisaM
(27,811 posts)Wisconsin is a primary. So that is one positive variable.
Cha
(297,210 posts)that you know of?
LisaM
(27,811 posts)Here's a Wiki with a list. George and Massachusetts are on it too - Massachusetts has some caveat, and Georgia was not close, but she has won under this system before. Arizona does too, but I think you had to switch ahead of time. I don't know the exact rules of Wisconsin's.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open_primaries_in_the_United_States
Cha
(297,210 posts)KewlKat
(5,624 posts)Highly rethug there unless you lived around Madison. I can't see that many outside of Madison or Milwaukee supporting any dem. GW could do/did no wrong. I just don't know how this one will play out. If Madison goes for the bs that BS spews than he's got it. Sadly, aside from us, I never knew one coworker or neighbor that cared anything about Hill or Bill. I was rural.
Crossing fingers she does well there. Wish I had a bird I could send her.....some folks need a sign to be convinced!
LisaM
(27,811 posts)Much more diverse than the rest of the state.
Renew Deal
(81,858 posts)Godhumor
(6,437 posts)But due to the lack of polling, their model doesn't reflect it.
It should be closer than the caucuses which, frankly, is all we need.