What does Clinton's 200+ delegate lead mean? Bernie is hosed in NY

[Godhumor]

Cross-posted from GDP.

Bernie's real delegate target in NY is 135 of the 247 available (Roughly equivalent to a 55-45 win)!

Math is simple. 538 target to be on pace for the nomination is an outright win of 125 delegates. Bernie is at 92% of his target to date, which means he needs to beat his remaining targets by an average of 8%. 125 x 1.08 is 135 delegates. Anything less than that means he falls further behind.

For example:

If he finishes tied with Clinton, he falls another 22-24 delegates behind in the nomination race (He underperforms where he needs to be by 11 - 12 delegates while Clinton over-performs by the same amount)

If he loses by 5% that becomes a 36-38 delegate gap

If he loses by 10% that is a 48-50 delegate gap


Bernie can't afford moral victories anymore. NY is not just a must win, he needs to win convincingly to have any viable path other than having to win California by a ridiculous margin of 60% or more.

Targets found at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/democrats/

[brush]

1. Which is why I don't get the time spent on that overseas trip that could be spent campaigning in NY.

It's the most important primary to date. It's make or break.

[Walk away]

3. I am guessing the trip has to do with hiring bullies and idiots to run his campaign.

[LisaM]

6. I think it has to do with his ego

We all saw him on the talk show practically insisting he had been summoned for a Papal audience. Even after the facts emerged Jane Sanders was still doing the rounds and repeating the meme.

[DemonGoddess]

5. The trip is an obvious attempt

at trying to game Catholics into thinking he has the endorsement of the Pope. Pope Francis won't do that, for one. For another, Pope Francis will not appreciate any attempts at gaming HIM either.

[BlueMTexpat]

7. After the Kim Davis fiasco last fall,

Pope Francis will be kept VERY far from ANY US politician in a Presidential primary campaign if the Vatican has any sense.

I am sure the those who surround the Pope, as well as the Pope himself, also do NOT appreciate these efforts to "game" him.

[DemonGoddess]

10. Pope Francis

avoided his home country due to elections, so I don't see this as anything different as far as the Pope's attitude.

[Surya Gayatri]

2. Good post. Thanks.

[IamMab]

4. If only some polling hadn't been ridiculously off-base so far, I'd feel more certain.

The closed primary and the multiple positive polls for Clinton should be enough to calm me, but I think I'm not going to be able to relax until after the race is actually called by the networks.

6 more days, and the big debate tomorrow...

[BlueMTexpat]

8. I too am always nervous

until the actual results roll in.

But I must say that I was very pleasantly surprised by results in WY. I hadn't even dreamed things would work out so well there.

What surprised me today was the Jeff Merkley endorsement of Bernie though. Then I realized that Jeff has only been a Senator since 2009 so had no real chance to work with Hillary except as SoS, which likely means not at all. Anyone who has worked with her prefers Hillary over Bernie hands down.

Merkley's only experience at the national level is from his experience in the Senate and he is considered to be a very liberal Senator. But he has either not been paying attention to Bernie's recent behavior, which has gone beyond quirky, IMO, or the constant harassment of SDS supporters that he should follow the will of his constituents (he was a long-time state legislator) and his own misunderstanding of the role of SDs pushed him to it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Merkley

Merkley is still a good Senator for his state. As a SD, he is entitled to his own preference, however OR votes. I won't begrudge him that. But I am still surprised.

[LiberalFighter]

9. Hillary should be about 20 over her target.