Xiomara Zelaya Leads in Honduras Presidential Polling
Xiomara Zelaya Leads in Honduras Presidential Polling
Posted: 05/21/2013 6:06 pm
The fourth set of presidential polls in Honduras is out, and for the fourth time Xiomara Castro de Zelaya is in the lead by a comfortable margin. In January, a CID-Gallup poll had Mrs. Zelaya ahead with 25 percent, followed by Congressman Juan Orlando Hernández with 23 percent, TV personality and sports commentator Salvador Nasralla with 18 percent, and attorney Mauricio Villeda with 16 percent.
In April, an opinion polling and market research firm in Honduras called Le Vote conducted a poll which showed Mrs. Zelaya ahead with 30 percent, followed by Mr. Nasralla with 28 percent, Mr. Hernández with 26 percent, and Mr. Villeda with 16 percent. Later in April, a poll taken by another Honduran polling firm, Encuestadora Paradigma, had Mrs. Zelaya again on top with 19.7 percent, followed by Mr. Hernández with 13.3 percent, Mr. Villeda with 10.2 percent, and Mr. Nasralla with 9.9 percent.
The latest poll, conducted by CD-Gallup during May 2-8, shows Mrs. Zelaya at 28 percent, Mr. Nasralla at 21 percent, Mr. Hernández at 18 percent, and Mr. Villeda at 14 percent. The remaining 19 percent of the people polled either said they did not know or did not respond. If you take the averages of the four polls, Mrs. Zelaya comes out with 25.7 percent, Mr. Hernández with 20.1 percent, Mr. Nasralla with 19.2 percent, and Mr. Villeda with 14.1 percent.
Mr. Hernández is downplaying the latest CID-Gallup poll and says it is he who is in the lead. His rationale against the accuracy of the poll is that CID-Gallup had him down by more than 10 points going into the primary election against his main opponent, Ricardo Álvarez, last November, and in the end he won by at least seven percentage points. Naturally, Mr. Hernández neglects to mention that the results were aggressively disputed by Mr. Álvarez, who asked for but was denied a recount by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). The final results were not confirmed for many weeks, and even then there remained a veil of suspicion among many within the Nationalist Party that the election may have been stolen from Mr. Álvarez.
More:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/marco-caceres/honduras-election-polling_b_3294939.html
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(which serves the interest of badass U.S. transglobal corporations like Chiquita and U.S. clothing retailers, and their slave labor farms and factories), the Pentagon (expanding their military bases in Honduras, the traditional U.S. stepping stool for attacks on Honduras' neighbors), U.S. covert agencies (by definition--always back fascists), the DEA and other enforcers of the corrupt, murderous failed U.S. "war on drugs" (for reasons of private contractor profiteering and probably protection of powerful illicit drug networks, like the ones who launder the profits to U.S. banksters, the CIA, the Bush Cartel and other beneficiaries), the Miami mafia and other fascists such as John McCain (telecommunications interests in Honduras), will not likely permit this amazing and courageous woman, Xiomara Castro de Zelaya, to become president of Honduras.
Expect election fraud, or, if she somehow wins, a second fascist coup d'etat.
The above forces and billionaire interests will not easily give up the "prize" they seized with their 2009 fascist coup d'etat in Honduras. Honduras was their first successful attack on the huge leftist democracy movement that has swept South America and parts of Central America. It is critically important to all fascist and U.S. imperial strategies, including the looting of our own country and the wrecking ball to our democracy, to hang onto Honduras by tooth and claw.
As the 2009 Honduran coup general said, their coup was intended "to prevent communism from Venezuela reaching the United States." (--quoted in a report on the coup by the Zelaya government-in-exile)
By communism, this general meant the "New Deal"-like policies of governments such as Brazil and Venezuela that seek prosperity for all, rather than for the few. In Brazil, for instance, subsidies for the poor, out of compassion for the extreme and widespread poverty that has plagued this and other Latin American countries, to help them get on their feet and be able to take advantage of the new educational and job opportunities that leftist government inevitably creates. And in Brazil--influenced by Venezuela--use of Brazil's newly discovered, big oil reserves for social programs. In Venezuela, the pioneer of Latin America's "New Deal," universal free education through college, free medical care for the poor (many of whom had NO medical care before), strong banking regulation--indeed, creation of the Bank of Venezuela, so the poor and small businesses can get access to credit and to protect small savers, use of half of Venezuela's oil profits for social programs, and numerous other far advanced reforms, including, as Jimmy Carter has stated, "the best election system in the world." Also--and I'm sure it's particularly aggravating to our U.S. corporate rulers--giving local communities the power to decide to build schools or medical centers or other needed local projects, rather than the government imposing freeways and skyscrapers and other community-fracturing monster boondoggles.
These are some of the characteristics of the leftist democracy revolution that the Chavez government has implemented, and these characteristics, along with regional Latin American cooperation and solidarity--now formalized in institutions such as CELAC and UNASUR, also promoted by Venezuela--have been the inspiration of Latin America over the last decade, where numerous similar "New Deal"-like governments have been elected.
This is not "communism." It is decency. And it is very democratic.
Our corporate rulers and war profiteers DON'T WANT OUR PEOPLE TO BE INSPIRED BY THESE IDEAS! They wanted to stop it in Honduras--and contrived a coup run out of Washington DC to do so, even though Xiomara Zelaya's husband, Mel Zelaya, was only very modestly implementing reforms--for instance, lowering the cost of bus tickets for poor workers and school lunch programs to insure child nutrition. Zelaya was no "communist." He did, though, eventually seek serious reform, in common cause with labor unions and other advocates of the poor. He wanted the people to vote on it--a popular ADVISORY vote on whether or not to SUGGEST constitutional reform to the legislature. For that he was overthrown.
Nor was Hugo Chavez a "communist," and the private sector growth in Venezuela is proof of it! He just didn't believe in the monstrous, anti-democratic, transnational corporate powermongers that have come to characterize "U.S. business" and whom the U.S. government now entirely serves.
There are several factors that could conceivably come into play, by which Xiomara Castro de Zelaya might be permitted to be elected in Honduras, a U.S.-run country:
1) The Obama administration has suffered widespread vilification and curtailment of their goals, because of their support of the Honduras fascist coup. Obama probably did not design that coup--it occurred only six months into his administration (June 2009) when he was occupied by severe war and economic crises, but there is evidence that the Pentagon and Bush Junta diplomats (still in place) were involved. Obama's first instinct was to oppose the coup, but he soon caved to outright, admitted blackmail by the fascists here, led by junior Senator Jim DeMint (SC-Diebold) who has since gone to the Heritage Foundation, his "mission" accomplished. Obama then permitted the U.S. State Department to run an election in Honduras, under martial law, with many leftists dead or in prison, and only rightwingers allowed to run--an election that no reputable election monitoring group on earth would touch, it was so utterly tainted and wrong.
The coup is now HIS--and it is a huge albatross in dealing with the prosperous, and newly powerful and unified, leftist democracies in South America.
POSSIBLY Obama will let Xiomara be elected, perhaps in a deal that promotes U.S. business interests, say in Brazil (which made strenuous efforts to stop the Honduran coup), in an effort to repair the enormous damage that Obama's support of the coup has done to U.S./Latin American relations, and to U.S. corporate interests in Latin America. This would by no means guarantee her safety nor permanent restoration of democracy in Honduras. Honduras is now afflicted with rightwing death squads, like that other U.S. client state, Colombia. And U.S. fascists and the Miami mafia, and other interested parties, are perfectly capable of acting on their own in an assassination and destabilization plot, or election fraud, whether Obama agrees or not.
2) If Xiomara Zelaya has agreed to a deal for only very limited reform, she might be permitted to be elected, and the "ten families" and the other mentioned interests may tolerate very limited reforms, in order to restore Honduras' reputation in Latin America (where it is a pariah state). Such a compromise (by Xiomara) is possible but it is not likely. It would seem out of character for this very progressive leader to back down on the serious reform needed in Honduras.
On the other hand, Honduras has gone backwards in history to a time that other Latin American countries suffered through, in which the most that could be hoped for was restoration of the institutional framework of democracy, after a period of fascist tyranny and bloodshed. People worked on, say, election reform or judicial integrity or on basic grass roots organizing (discussion forums, community organizing, etc.), or labor organizing. Next might be constitutional reform, to re-tool the power structure and make it more responsive to peoples' needs and then--after all this--serious economic reform. It was a slow and painstaking journey for many LatAm countries, just to restore the basics of democracy.
A slow path of reform for Honduras might be a wise, though not very happy, compromise. The hope in Honduras when Mel Zelaya was president was that serious reform was possible and imminent. It will be a disappointment to many if Xiomara has made such a compromise but it would be an understandable one, if she has, or does. She may judge the situation too dangerous and volatile for anything other than basic democracy work.
3) The Honduran constitution (which Oscar Arias of Costa Rica has called "the worst in the world"
limits the president to one, four year term. That's it. She will not be able to run for a second term (and I believe she will be barred from ever running again--though I'm not quite sure of this--as socialist Michele Batchelet is doing, this year, in Chile, after being termed out for a term). This unusual limit on the president greatly limits what she can do, and it was designed (by Reagan's henchmen) to do just that--as prevention in case a popular, New Deal-type president got elected. So they may let her be elected and live out her term, implementing a few modest reforms, and they may try to hamstring her with destabilization ops and non-stop negative stories in the corporate press, and then install the next rightwing administration to undo her work.
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I hate to be so negative myself, in my crystal ball gazing. And I may be wrong. Xiomara Zelaya is a very remarkable and talented leader--very charismatic. She has "walked through the fire." She has faced the prospect of instant death every day since the 2009 coup d'etat against her husband. She remained in Honduras, after the airplane with blackened windows that stopped at the U.S. air base in Honduras for refueling, removed him from his country at gunpoint. Thereafter he had the protection of the Brazilian government but during that period of his exile, she did not. She organized and led protests amidst martial law, at great peril to her life. She would not be silenced. She encouraged others, mourned with them in their losses and brutal repression, organized and carried on. And people of high character who face death in this way are deeply changed thereafter.
Witness the majority of leaders of this leftist democracy movement in Latin America. A past history of imprisonment, kidnapping, beatings or torture, and loss of family members and friends, at the hands of U.S.-supported fascist tyrants and murderers, is common among them. Together with their people, and as a group of leaders, they have created the most important political revolution in this era and possibly in the last couple of hundred years. Their past sufferings make them even more determined to succeed in their common enterprise--establishing social justice in Latin America and liberating Latin America from soul-killing U.S. domination.
My read on Xiomara Zelaya is that she is of that caliber of leadership--the highest caliber--and belongs among these founders of the new Latin America. Her husband deserves kudos for what he tried to do. She may be the one to pull it off. I've mentioned the obstacles she and the people of Honduras face, and the ways that her electoral victory might be undone, because the forces against them are very great, especially given Honduras' special role as the barrier to reform HERE. Interpreting this coup general, Honduras is supposed to be the bulwark against South American notions of social justice and real democracy reaching north, reaching US.
It's bizarre, I know, and one wonders who he was talking to in Washington (or who was talking to him and knew what buttons to push) (my guess: John McCain). But there is a kernel of truth in his statement--that he and the other coupsters were securing Honduras for the U.S. and its corporate and war profiteer interests. It is of key economic and political and strategic importance to them in their battle against common decency in Latin America as a whole.
As a symbol and a fascist "prize" and a barrier to social justice and genuine democracy here, as a key strategic location in the U.S. "circle the wagons" region (Central America/the Caribbean), and as profiteer heaven for corporations and military contractors, and probably as a CIA/Bush Cartel drug route, Honduras will not easily be yielded up by its current, illegitimate rulers, to good government, fairness and decency and real democracy.
I shouldn't predict failure for Xiomara and the Honduran leftist democracy movement. Other countries faced equally bad odds against serious reform, and equally powerful and evil forces. They overcame those odds and those forces, and stand ready to welcome Honduras back into this awesome revolution. Though they couldn't anticipate the Honduran coup--it was very sudden--and couldn't protect Honduras then, they have fair warning now, and no doubt have an action plan to restore Honduran democracy and to support and protect Xiomara if she wins. We saw such an action plan recently when Venezuela's rightwing coupsters and the U.S. attacked Nicolas Maduro's narrow but verified election win. We saw something similar in Bolivia in 2008, when Evo Morales was under attack from the white separatists and their pals in the U.S./Bush Junta embassy. Xiomara, though in danger, is by no means alone, the way she must have felt that night, back in 2009, when her home was shot up and her husband was ripped from her side. She became the president then. And she has many, many friends now all over Latin America and all around the world.
