Colombia's Santos sacks his cabinet to save his government OP/ED

[Bacchus4.0]

http://colombiareports.com/opinion/kevin-howlett/25693-president-santos-sacks-his-cabinet-to-save-his-government.html

.Thursday, 23 August 2012 13:28 Kevin Howlett ..Tags:Juan Manuel SantosOpinion

Colombia President Juan Manuel Santos demanded the mass resignation of his cabinet Wednesday in an attempt to re-launch his flailing government, and kick-start the 2014 re-election campaign.

After a catastrophic few months for the president in which popular support for his administration has plummeted, and during which the FARC guerrillas reappeared as major players on political stage, Santos has decided that the fight back must begin.
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The end of the ‘dream team’
When Santos came to power in August 2010, the Colombian press labelled his cabinet the ‘dream team’. The collective wealth of talent and glittering CVs of those within the new government was contrasted with ex-president Uribe’s court. There was talent in Uribe’s team sure, but loyalty and commitment to the cause was prized above all else.
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So Santos has sacked his cabinet, but will this save his government?
The last few months have been game changers. A perceptible deterioration in the country’s security situation has been compounded by a series of institutional crises that have threatened the governability of the country.

[COLGATE4]

1. I think Santos has realized that he's

living on borrowed time. Unless he does something dramatic to address the decreasing security in the country as a whole his Presidency is doomed to be counted as a failure.

[Bacchus4.0]

2. its actually quite amazing considering how sky high he started

I think his early approval rate was in the 80% range and exceeded Uribe. Now there could be an opening for a candidate on the left. Not sure though given Colombians' animosity toward the FARC.

[COLGATE4]

3. I think the whole idea of a truce with FARC is

going to blow up in his face. Remember, this isn't the first time it's been tried. At least twice before - Belisario Betancur and Andres Pastrana. And each time, it went very badly for the country. People haven't forgotten, and most Colombians I speak with these days are pessimistic about the deteriorating security (from the great gains Uribe made) in the country at large. I don't think many are confident that the FARC would hold up their end of the bargain, just as they never did in the past. I can see Uribe being elected President again.

[gbscar]

4. I'd say you're leaving out a lot of history, but I guess it's normal.

Most people only remember what they want to remember. Not the annoying details that don't fit their worldview or political beliefs. Which explains, in part, why Uribe was so popular despite how his so-called "great gains" were already showing their limits before his term had ended.

And, of course, that's all without addressing the darker face of the administration, of its poll numbers and of those "great gains" of his. I suppose it's always easy to pretend everything was so much better, but that was never true for many Colombians who couldn't ignore the consequences of Uribe's actions on their own lives.

In the end, you need two sides to work anything out, and while I do not romanticize FARC, I see no need to simplify a much more complex history (Pastrana never actually signed a truce with them, for example, and the extermination of the UP had as much to do with the failure of Betancur's efforts as whatever FARC did at the time).

Unfortunately, I know there are a lot of misguided people who share your conclusions about having the Messiah come back, but I will loathe the day that authoritarian spell is cast again.

[COLGATE4]

5. Having actually lived in Colombia ( as well

as having friends and family there) during a large part of Uribe's period I can tell you that he had tremendous popular support, and still does. You can try and rationalize the failure of Pastrana's and Betancur's "efforts' as you will, but the sad truth is that they were abject failures. Uribe is the only Colombian President in the past 45 years who has reversed the appalling security problem caused by the guerrilla movements in Colombia.

It's a sad commentary to call people who for the first time (many in their lives) were able to freely travel throughout their own country without fear of being kidnapped, robbed or killed 'misguided' because they appreciated what Uribe had accomplished. And while it's logically true that you need two sides to work something out, that presupposes that both sides are interested in doing it. I have seen nothing from the FARC for the 43 years I've known about them to believe that there is any interest on their part in anything other than achieving a truce (and hopefully an 'arms-free zone') in which to recover and rearm.

[gbscar]

6. You're not the only one who has lived there

But I see no need to bring that up and compare who has the most experience.

Uribe may have been very popular, but his popularity wasn't exactly proportional to his success. It was also fed by political propaganda and attacks on the opposition.

The so-called "democratic security" strategy peaked in 2008 at most. Some of the current worrying trends that people like yourself try to squarely blame on Santos were already starting to show up during the last two years of Uribe's second term. The idea that he had eliminated crime, ended terrorism or stopped people from being kidnapped until Santos came along and ruined everything is, in fact, misguided.

Why? Because it's an impression that relies on selective memory or a blindness to the structural limits and the ugly sides of Uribe's policies. I do not mean to insult your family or anyone in particular, including some of my own friends and acquaintances, but you can't really think the picture was really so rosy if the matter is considered with any degree of seriousness.

And I'm not just talking about things like human rights abuses and displacement, which should also be part of the discussion. Even on its own terms, "democratic security" was not a magical cure. Several critics and analysts repeatedly warned that FARC had already adapted to the security strategy and was resorting to increased guerrilla warfare, which explains why even government figures started to show a rise in FARC attacks and military casualties, but this wasn't addressed seriously. In fact, a few of them were accused of being "spokespersons for terrorism" by Uribe and/or his more intolerant right-wing pals.

And now, ironically enough, we have Uribe suddenly claiming the sky is falling. That's why I think it's very misguided to blindly follow this line of thought.

Regarding the subject of "believing in FARC"...once again, you need to look at the other side of the coin. FARC has not believed in the establishment, mostly with good reason, and if you simply treat them as untrustworthy, the cycle will continue without much difficulty. Instead, it's precisely because FARC aren't as strong as they were before that any upcoming peace process wouldn't be a repeat of recent history. Let's also remember that the Messiah himself was willing to offer FARC a number of generous concessions at different points in time, despite his current amnesia.

[COLGATE4]

7. The essential mistake you (and lots of people who

post on the subject on DU) are making is to assume that FARC still has any genuine political purpose of agenda. That ship sailed long ago. Today's FARC is essentially nothing more than a rag-tag group of petty criminals who are knee-deep in the drug business making money through that and extorting anyone they can. They can still recruit unsophisticated youths from the agricultural population but the whole Marxist revolution bit is nothing more than window-dressing for the opportunistic leaders of FARC today. I fail to see what you believe FARC wants to gain from a truce, except for the opportunity to get the heat off themselves, lick their wounds, retrench and re-arm, just as in the past. There is no widespread interest within FARC leadership to change into playing a constructive role in the political process. I believe Santos is carrying out a fool's errand in this initiative which he probably sees as his last chance to save a failed Presidency.